Turkey is preparing to launch another incursion into northern Iraq, aiming to establish a 30-40 km deep buffer zone to counter the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Erdogan declared on March 4th, “We are about to complete the circle that will secure our Iraqi borders.” “This summer, we will permanently resolve the issue concerning our Iraqi borders,” he added. Despite a tangible decline in PKK attacks in recent years, Ankara argues that such measures are necessary to prevent future raids into Turkish territory. To rally support for its operation, Turkish officials have engaged in shuttle diplomacy with local stakeholders in Iraq. They have held several meetings with Kurdish leaders in Erbil, the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces or Al-Hashd al-Shaabi ,and most recently, with Iraqi officials in Baghdad.
If Turkey can secure the backing of the Iraqi central government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan regional government in Erbil; opposition to a military operation from Western countries such as the USA, France, and Germany will be mostly muted. Besides, within the international context of the war in Ukraine and Gaza, Western governments do not have much luxury of antagonizing Turkey in an operation carried out with the consent of a sovereign government.
In the 1990s, Turkey launched large-scale operations with the participation of up to 30,000 soldiers. However, the key difference between these past operations and the upcoming one is that previously, Turkish troops entered Iraqi territory to pursue the PKK and then retreated to Turkish territory after hitting their targets. This time, Turkey will establish permanent bases and more outposts deep within Iraq. This strategic shift signals a more enduring commitment to combatting the PKK and securing its borders. Turkey already has over 100 army outposts and thousands of permanent troops stationed in northern Iraq. The upcoming operation will cover a 378 km border and extend up to 40 km inside Iraq, reaching as far as the Gara region, which serves as the stronghold of the PKK’s military wing. The PKK reportedly controls approximately 600 villages in the Dohuk region and 200 villages in the Zakho region.
To ensure that global public opinion does not turn against Turkey, Ankara aims to involve Iraqi troops in the upcoming operation, even if only symbolically. To this end, Turkey insists that the Iraqi army, the Popular Mobilization Forces, and the Peshmerga fighters participate in the operations, although the Turkish army will undoubtedly play the leading role.
Iraq seeks comprehensive agreements covering oil, water, and developmental initiatives in exchange for its consent. First, Iraq has long been urging Turkey to release more water from its upstream rivers to alleviate its drought problem, which has devastated its agricultural production. Secondly, Iraqi oil exports through Turkey were halted when Baghdad won an arbitration case in March 2023. The arbitration court ordered Turkey to pay Iraq $1.5 billion before interest, covering the period from 2014 to 2018. The flow has not resumed since then. Iraq would typically export between 400 to 500 thousand barrels of oil to the global markets. The closure of the pipeline has inflicted tremendous damage on the Iraqi economy, with officials estimating a loss of $7 billion in revenue over the past year. Meanwhile, Turkey's loss is minimal, with transit fees amounting to only 2-3million dollars per day. Third, Iraq’s ambitious Development Road will traverse south to north in Iraq, from Basra to Mosul, with an estimated cost of $17 billion. Iraq attaches high importance to this project alternative to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor(IMEC) initiative. It appears that Turkey is prepared to make concessions on these significant issues to Baghdad.
On Thursday, March 14th, a high-level Turkish delegation, including Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Defense Minister Yaşar Guler, and Head of Intelligence Ibrahim Kalin, met with their Iraqi counterparts. These counterparts include Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, Defense Undersecretary of the Ministry of National Security, the head of the Popular Mobilization Forces, Deputy Director of the Intelligence Agency, and Interior Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government. The primary focus of the meeting was security cooperation between the two countries against the PKK. This meeting also served as preparation for Erdoğan’s first visit to Baghdad since2012, scheduled for the second half of April after the end of Ramadan. After the Thursday meeting, Iraq declared the PKK as a banned organization.
Turkey is also keeping its western allies informed about the prospects of the operation. The spokesperson of the Turkish Foreign Ministry, Öncü Keçeli, confirmed that Fidan raised the issue during a strategic consultation meeting with his American counterpart Blinken on March 7 and 8. Keçeli emphasized that Turkey did not seek the blessing of the USA regarding the operation.
This military operation will represent a continuation of Turkey’s persistent efforts to create a buffer zone within Syria and Iraq since2016. Turkey's current approach to launching a military operation in Syria and Iraq appears to be strategically motivated rather than for domestic political consumption. To this end, Ankara is prioritizing diplomatic efforts to get support from local and international stakeholders. This deliberate and patient approach indicates a more calculated and long-term strategy in combating the PKK insurgency. However, it is essential to recognize that while the use of force may provide short-term security solutions, addressing the socio-economic root causes of the conflict is crucial for sustainable peace. Without addressing these underlying issues, complications are likely to arise in the future.
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