The bilateral relationship between Turkey and Israel have experienced its ebbs and flows, but since the war in Gaza, the trajectory has remained mostly downward. The Trump administration has so far exerted pressure on Israel and Turkey to settle their differences. Yet this does not mean that the worsening of relations with Israel comes without costs for Turkey.

Under the terms of Trump's 20-point Gaza peace plan, Hamas is expected to transfer control of Gaza first to an international body and eventually to the Palestinian Authority (PA). The Trump administration anticipates that Hamas will eventually wither away as this process unfolds. Ankara, however, may be reluctant to go along with this process.

İsrail ve Hamas, 9 Ekim Perşembe günü iki yıllık Gazze savaşını sona erdirmeye yönelik ateşkes anlaşmasını imzaladılar. İlk aşamada, İsrailli rehinelerin serbest bırakılması ve İsrail'in Gazze'den kısmen çekilmesi öngörülüyor. Uzmanlarımız son ateşkes anlaşmasını değerlendirdi.

Turkish President Erdoğan announced this week that Turkey would terminate its pipeline agreement with Iraq, effective in one year. The move followed a painful agreement between the Iraqi federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over revenue-sharing. This would normally have led to the reopening of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which was shut down following an arbitration ruling against Turkey in March 2023.

On July 16, Israeli warplanes bombed parts of Damascus, including the defense ministry and a site near the presidential palace. While the Israeli government claims that its recent airstrikes in Syria are meant to protect the Druze minority, the absence of similar interventions during the bloodiest years of the Syrian civil war suggests that more is at play.

As tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated across military and political dimensions, a quieter but critical component has re-emerged: cyber operations. Over the past month, both countries have used digital tools alongside conventional weapons—not as decisive game-changers, but as supplements to broader military strategies.

This report analyzes Turkey’s vision for Syria following the fall of the Assad family and the rise of the HTS under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa. In this regard, it focuses on the foreign actors that, alongside Turkey, now have the greatest ability to shape Syria’s future: namely the United States and Israel.