The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu on charges of corruption and aiding a terrorist group, has sent shockwaves through Turkey. While opposition leaders decry the move as a "coup against our next president," the reaction from Western capitals has been notably restrained or absent. One of the “harshest reactions” came from Germany, stating that “Protecting the rights of elected representatives of the people is a crucial part of upholding the rule of law. The Turkish Government must safeguard the fundamental democratic and rule-of-law principles to which it has committed itself.” "We would encourage Turkey to respect human rights, to handle its own internal framework appropriately," State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said. Many governments did not issue a statement at all. The lack of a strong, coordinated response from the United States and European nations reflects how they perceive Turkey and their intention to continue doing business with the Erdoğan administration.
1. Turkey Is Not Considered a Functioning Democracy
Western policymakers recognize that Turkey no longer operates as a functioning democracy. As a result, they see little value in issuing forceful condemnations, knowing that their words are unlikely to influence Erdoğan’s actions. The assumption is that Turkey’s trajectory is set, and the West's ability to alter it is minimal.
For years, Turkey’s institutions have largely eroded. The country has undergone systematic crackdowns, particularly in the aftermath of the failed coup attempt on July 15, 2016, which is widely perceived as an opportunity for Erdoğan to consolidate power. In this context, the arrest of Imamoğlu is not an anomaly but rather a continuation of a well-established pattern of authoritarian governance.
2. Turkey’s Geopolitical Importance Overshadows Concerns for Democracy
Despite growing authoritarianism, Turkey remains a critical player in European security, especially given the ongoing war in Ukraine. The decline of NATO’s influence under the new Trump administration and Europe's urgent need to bolster its defenses against Russia have only amplified Turkey's strategic importance. Western leaders, especially in Europe, see Ankara as a key partner in security matters. Turkey has a large and capable military and has been invited to major defense discussions in Paris and London. There is even talk of Turkey contributing troops to a Ukraine peacekeeping force.
Given these considerations, European policymakers are reluctant to jeopardize relations with Ankara over domestic political developments. Their primary concern is maintaining Turkey’s cooperation on defense and security rather than advocating for democratic principles.
3. The Trump Administration’s Favorable View of Erdoğan
President Donald Trump has an affinity for strong leaders, and Erdoğan is no exception. On multiple occasions, Trump publicly praised the Turkish leader, calling him a "smart guy" and a "friend."
Trump’s approach to Turkey is transactional, prioritizing military and strategic cooperation over democratic concerns. For the Trump administration, Erdoğan is seen as a reliable ally who can be counted on to support U.S. interests in the Middle East, particularly in Syria.
His administration does not prioritize democracy promotion in Turkey—or anywhere else, for that matter. Washington is unlikely to exert any meaningful pressure on Ankara regarding Imamoğlu or other political opponents.
4. Realism Over Ideals in Foreign Policy
Foreign policy is traditionally shaped by national interests rather than moral considerations. In the case of Turkey, Western diplomats and analysts likely view defending Imamoğlu or other opposition figures as a futile exercise. Their assessments suggest that Erdoğan has a firm grip on power and that his political challengers face insurmountable obstacles.
For realists in international relations, the calculation is clear: Erdoğan is the dominant political force in Turkey, and his hold on power appears secure. Challenging him on human rights or democratic principles is seen as counterproductive, as it risks straining relations with a strategically important partner. As a result, they advise their governments to engage with Erdoğan pragmatically rather than pursue what they see as a lost cause.
The tepid Western reaction to Imamoğlu’s arrest reaffirms that human rights, civil liberties, and democracy are not primary drivers of foreign policy when interests are at stake. Western governments appear to have concluded that Erdoğan will continue to rule Turkey in the foreseeable future and that Imamoğlu’s political survival is unlikely.
If Turkey does not descend into chaos following Imamoğlu’s arrest and possible imprisonment, and if the crackdown remains limited to him and a few other politicians, Western leaders will likely maintain business as usual with Ankara. Their priority is to ensure that Turkey remains a stable and cooperative partner on security and regional geopolitical issues.
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