If the designation of an organization as a terrorist entity carried substantive consequences for Ankara’s policymakers, they would likely perceive the recent developments in Syria as profoundly unsettling. Both Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the YPG are classified as terrorist organizations by Turkey, yet these two groups have consolidated power across the Syrian landscape in the last couple of weeks. Nonetheless, the joy has been palpable both among Turkey's decision-makers and within the broader public, following the triumph of the HTS.
HTS has been pushed to the most northwestern corner of Syria, in Idlib, for many years until last week. Although Turkey has officially labeled HTS a terrorist organization, largely to appease Russia and Iran, it has not treated it as such in practice. Through its intelligence agency, MIT, Turkey has developed robust relationships with HTS and other jihadist organizations in Idlib. Under the protection of Turkish troops who have repelled attacks by the Syrian army and kept Russians and Iranians at bay through diplomatic engagements (the Astana Format), HTS has become one of the most formidable armed groups in the country.
During HTS’s blitzkrieg that toppled the Assad regime in 11 days, Ankara was jubilant but mostly exercised restraint in public to avoid provoking Russia and Iran. Nonetheless, President Erdoğan openly expressed his wishes, while many Arab governments observed the developments with caution and concern. “Idlib, Hama, Homs, and the target is Damascus,” Erdoğan declared. “Our wish is that this march in Syria continues smoothly,” he added.
As HTS has emerged as a powerhouse in Syria, every stakeholder in the region has begun establishing contact with it. One major obstacle for Western countries in engaging with HTS through regular channels is that they have designated HTS as a terrorist organization—a designation shared by the United States, the EU countries, and Turkey. The U.S. still offers a $10 million bounty for the HTS leader, al-Golani. Seeking international legitimacy, HTS has distanced itself from al-Qaeda and ISIS, rebranding itself as a modern opposition force.
Success has its own allure
In light of HTS’s triumph in Syria, pragmatic Western governments have started reconsidering its terrorist designation. Reports indicate that the U.S., the UK, and other Western countries are preparing to remove HTS from their terrorist organization lists, though they first want assurances that HTS will uphold its promises to break ties with international jihadist movements.
Turkey has positioned itself as the primary beneficiary of the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. However, the dynamics between Turkey and HTS have fundamentally shifted. While HTS was once an asset under Turkish intelligence oversight, it has now grown to rule Syria, decreasing its dependence on Ankara. Conversely, Turkey increasingly needs HTS’s cooperation to implement its Syrian policy, particularly regarding the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In this regard, Turkish and Qatari delegations made an official visit to Damascus on December 12. MIT Chief Kalın met with HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa (Golani) and Interim Government Prime Minister Muhammad al-Bashir. This marks the first high-level international visit to Damascus since HTS seized power.
Syria is still divided
The main driver of Turkey’s policy in Syria is its opposition to the YPG. Turkey considers the YPG an extension of the PKK in Syria — the latter is a terrorist organization according to Turkey, the U.S., and the EU. Turkey had long declared the YPG’s presence west of the Euphrates as a red line, but its previous attempts to convince Russia and the U.S. to act had been unsuccessful. Thus, the absence of backlash against Turkey backed group’s takeover of Tel Rifaat and Manbij represents a notable success for Ankara.
Nevertheless, the U.S. continues to regard the YPG as its main ally in Syria, especially in the fight against ISIS. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to visit Turkey on Friday, the 13th, to discuss developments in Syria and urge Ankara not to further undermine the YPG in eastern Euphrates.
Ankara will likely offer polite words to Blinken; however, it is improbable that it will heed the statements of a Secretary of State who will be replaced by a new administration within a month. Nevertheless, it will most likely refrain from launching a large-scale operation in eastern Syria to avoid provoking the United States.
Besides, Turkey believes that the U.S. will eventually withdraw from the region, particularly as the U.S. will pull its forces out of Iraq by 2026, which could complicate logistics for its operations in Syria. Former President Trump has also expressed reluctance about involvement in Syria. “Syria is a mess, but it is not our friend, and THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!” Trump stated on social media.
Israel, too, is wary of HTS. Its recent invasion of southern Syria and extensive airstrike campaign targeting weapons depots reflect its concerns about HTS’s long-term intentions. Consequently, Israel is likely to continue its policy of promoting a fragmented Syria rather than a centralized government, regardless of ideology. This suggests Israel will prefer the autonomy, if not independence, of the eastern Euphrates for the foreseeable future. The U.S. is likely to consider Israel’s concerns seriously when formulating its policy on Syria.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad does not guarantee freedom or stability. The conflict in Syria remains unsettled, with Turkish military operations in the north and Israeli invasion in the south. If Turkey genuinely wishes to maintain Syria’s territorial integrity, as it often claims, it must engage with both its friends and enemies. The successful resettlement of millions of refugees and the reconstruction of Syria hinge on achieving a stable and peaceful nation.
A viable Syria will require the consent of all stakeholders. Otherwise, it is highly likely that Syria will remain divided, and the civil war will simply take on a new form.
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