Erdogan's blackmailing diplomacy led to a loss of credibility and a lack of trust about Turkey. While Turkey's demands were mostly rejected, it eventually gave up its leverage occasionally with modest gains. However, Ankara could have achieved these modest gains through friendly relations without harming Turkey's diplomatic posture. This harmful and useless tactic has also caused some strategic losses. Turkey's allies are more reluctant to provide strategic weapons. To decrease its reliance on Turkey, the US hedges its strategic partnership by investing in Greece and other regional actors. We here collected some samples of Turkey's blackmailing diplomacy and its consequences.
After nearly a 2-year veto, Turkey has finally lifted its opposition to Sweden's NATO membership. The question remains: What did Turkey gain from this steadfastness? President Biden sent a letter to Congress endorsing the sale of F-16s to Turkey. Yet, President Erdogan had already indicated in October 2021 that President Biden viewed the sale favorably. Ultimately, Turkish diplomacy has circled back to its starting point, with the fate of the F-16 sale now in the hands of President Biden's goodwill and the US Congress. The erosion of trust among its allies remains a challenge for Turkey. Thus far, the strategy of diplomatic pressure has yielded little for Turkey.
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