ANALYSIS
"US warns Turkey of 'consequences' over military-linked exports to Russia" by Adam Samson, Financial Times
Washington has warned Turkey that there will be "consequences" if the country does not curtail its exports to Russia of US military-linked hardware that is vital to Moscow's war machine.
Matthew Axelrod, assistant commerce secretary leading US efforts to keep sensitive technology out of the hands of America's adversaries, recently met Turkish officials and executives in Ankara and Istanbul as part of efforts to halt the illicit trade.
"We need Turkey to help us stop the illicit flow of US technology to Russia," Axelrod said in a statement to the Financial Times. "We need to see progress, and quickly, by Turkish authorities and industry or we will have no choice but to impose consequences on those that evade our export controls," he added.
Turkey is the world's second-biggest source, behind China, of high-priority, US-origin goods sent to Russia, according to the commerce department official.
Axelrod told the Turkish government that this trade was an "urgent problem", and called on Ankara to "adopt and enforce a ban on the transshipment of US controlled items to Russia", the official said. He added that Moscow was "trying to exploit Turkey's trade policy" to access US parts.
A large portion of these flows may be part of the "ghost trade" of goods that go missing and never enter the markets of the their purported destinations. The large rise in Turkish exports of sensitive goods to Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan has not led to a rise in imports of such goods reported in those countries.
"Turkish FM's explosive remarks against Israel signal growing unrest" by Ragip Soylu, Middle East Eye
The Turkish government has steadily increased its criticism of Israel as the war on Gaza approaches its tenth month and Palestinians continue to pay the highest price.
On Monday, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan used uncharacteristic language when referring to Israel, and likened the country to a dog whose leash must be taken under control by its Western handlers.
Fidan's comments also came after Erdogan's closed-door remarks last month, where he said "Turkey could enter Israel" as it had done so in Libya and Azerbaijan.
The remarks shocked many observers, but it's worth noting that the comments weren't planned for a wider audience other than a room of his core supporters and party officials in his hometown of Rize.
Last week, Ankara sent a top delegation to Haniyeh's funeral. In his remarks on Monday, Fidan specifically stated that Ankara was fed up by Washington's excuses for Israel, and US President Joe Biden's attempts to rationalise Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's provocative acts.
The growing perception in Ankara is that Netanyahu wants to invade southern Lebanon before a new US president is inaugurated, and he's hoping the killing of Haniyeh and senior Hezbollah officials will lay the groundwork for a regional war.
"Turkey's Erdogan calls Venezuela's Maduro after contested elections, urges dialogue", Ezgi Akin, Al-Monitor
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged dialogue in Venezuela on Wednesday in a first call to Nicolas Maduro since the contested elections.
Erdogan stopped short of congratulating Maduro, who claimed victory for a third term despite widespread protests and accusations of fraud and lack of transparency from international monitors.
Erdogan became one of the few leaders to call Venezuela's isolated leader. But unlike Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who rushed to celebrate Maduro's contested victory right after the elections, Erdogan stopped short of extending such a congratulatory message, according to a Turkish readout of the call.
While Ankara opposes the US-led Western economic sanctions on Venezuela, it refrains from publicly aligning with either side in the conflict between the Venezuelan government and opposition parties supported by Western capitals. The South American country is one of Turkey's largest trade partners in the Latin American region. The two countries' trade volume exceeded $1 billion last year, official Turkish data show.
POLITICS
Erdogan Plans Revamp Following Election Setback
After the AK Party's defeat in the March 31 local elections, marking the first time the party fell to second place in its history, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to take action in the coming days.
According to sources cited by journalist Altan Sancar from Gercek Gundem, Erdogan is set to deliver a speech on August 14, signalling that "nothing is over." His address will reportedly include messages aimed at the opposition and responses to public criticism of the party. The speech may also hint at potential changes within the party.
On August 14, several figures are expected to join the AK Party, including some district mayors representing the National Vision and independent deputies. Ersagun Yucel, who recently resigned from the IYI Party, and Seyithan Izsiz are likely to join, along with Bilal Bilici, who was elected from the same party. Yucel reportedly intended to join the AKP immediately after resigning but waited at Erdogan's request.
The AKP is expected to reach out to "old party members" in the coming days, with Selim Temurci, Isa Mesih Sahin, and Nedim Yamali from the Future Party possibly rejoining the party.
Erdogan Criticizes Opposition's Paris Trip
At the opening of Cukurova International Airport, President Erdogan criticized the opposition's recent trip to Paris, where CHP leader Ozgur Ozel and Mayors Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas supported national athletes at the Olympics. Erdoğan accused them of spending freely on personal trips while claiming there was no money for national obligations like social security debts.
Mayor Imamoğlu defended the trip, saying, "We were in Paris for four days to support the Olympics and promote Istanbul. Despite the slander, we know our actions were justified. We will continue to speak the truth and hold those who use such language against us accountable. We are focused on our responsibilities and have nothing to hide."
Mahmut Arikan to Serve as Felicity Party Deputy Chairman Until November Congress
The Felicity Party announced on August 6 that Deputy Chairman and Kayseri MP Mahmut Arikan will serve as Deputy Chairman until the Ordinary Congress in November.
Party Chairman Temel Karamollaoglu had previously announced in May that he would not run for re-election due to health issues.
ECONOMY
Turkey's Inflation Rate Drops to 61.78% in July
Turkey's annual inflation rate dropped to 61.78 percent in July, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) revealed on August 5. TurkStat also reported a 3.23 percent rise in monthly inflation.
However, the independent economist group ENAG claimed that annual inflation was significantly higher, at 100.88 percent in July, with a monthly increase of 5.91 percent, challenging the official figures.
Turkey Expects Foreign Investment to Grow in 2024
Turkey expects foreign direct investment (FDI) to increase to $12-14 billion this year, up from around $10 billion in 2023, according to Burak Daglioglu, head of the presidential investment office. Daglioglu noted that foreign interest has grown following Turkey's removal from the FATF's "grey list" and upgrades in its credit rating.
He mentioned that Chinese companies might invest in two new automotive factories, building on BYD's $1 billion plant investment announced in July. Talks with Chinese car manufacturers Chery and SAIC are progressing well, and a new data center investment might also be announced by the end of the year, Daglioglu said.
Turkish Central Bank Governor Keeps Forecasts Unchanged
Governor Fatih Karahan told reporters in Ankara on August 8 that the Central Bank needs to see a clear and lasting slowdown in inflation before feeling confident about its decline. Although recent monthly inflation rates have dropped, Karahan expressed uncertainty about the sustainability of this trend.
During a quarterly presentation on the inflation outlook, Karahan explained that there was no reason to adjust inflation forecasts for this year and next due to balancing demand and weakening domestic conditions. He also kept food inflation expectations unchanged for both years.
Karahan also emphasized that monetary policy can remain tight even after interest rate cuts.
Currency Protected Deposit Stock Decreases by 1.6 Trillion TL
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek announced on his X social media account that the Currency Protected Deposit (KKM) stock, which stood at 3.4 trillion TL a year ago, has been steadily decreasing for 50 weeks, now down by 1.6 trillion TL.
Simsek also mentioned that they expect this downward trend to continue, especially with the new withholding tax that is now applied to KKM.
Legal Actions Surge as Unpaid Loan and Credit Card Debt Soars
The Turkish Banks Association (TBB) Risk Center reported a significant increase in legal actions against individuals with unpaid personal loans and credit card debt in the first half of 2024. A total of 891,000 people are currently facing legal action, marking a 43 percent rise from the previous year.
In the first six months of 2024, 645,000 people faced legal proceedings for unpaid credit card debt, while 536,000 were pursued for unpaid personal loans. Some individuals are included in both categories.
As of June 2024, outstanding personal loan and credit card debt also surged by 103 percent from the previous year, reaching 77 billion Turkish lira.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Constitutional Court Reports Surge in Individual Applications
The Constitutional Court released individual application statistics covering the period from September 23, 2012, to June 30, 2024.
From 2012 to mid-2024, the court ruled on 74,574 cases. The most common violation was the "right to a trial within a reasonable time," with 56,443 cases, accounting for 76 percent of all violations.
In the first half of 2024, the court received 37,657 individual applications, an increase of 15,691 compared to the first quarter. Of these, 28,476 cases were resolved.
The number of "pending applications," or cases carried over from previous years, remained high. The number of such cases nearly doubled from 18,907 in the first quarter to 32,226 by mid-2024.
Turkey Lifts Instagram Ban After Meta Agrees to Cooperate on Content Issues
A meeting between Turkey's Ministry of Transport, the Information Technologies and Communication Authority (BTK), and Meta officials failed to resolve the Instagram ban imposed on August 2.
Transport Minister Uraloglu stated, "We did not achieve the desired outcome regarding Instagram. We do not expect any progress today."
The disagreement reportedly stemmed from Meta's refusal to censor content related to the PKK, YPG, and FETO. Meta officials allegedly responded that, apart from the PKK, these groups are not considered terrorist organizations globally. As a result, Turkey decided to maintain the ban under the current conditions, and the meeting ended without progress.
However, Turkey restored access to social media platform Instagram on August 10 after the company agreed to cooperate with authorities to address the government's concerns, Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu said.
FOREIGN POLICY
Turkish Foreign Minister Meets President el-Sisi in Egypt
On the second day of his official visit to Egypt, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in El Alamein to work on improving bilateral relations. The Turkish Foreign Ministry confirmed the meeting on X on August 5, but no details were disclosed by either side.
Fidan's visit, which began on August 4 at the invitation of Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, aims to strengthen diplomatic ties and prepare for el-Sisi's upcoming visit to Ankara. A joint press conference was held after his meeting with Abdelatty in Cairo.
Fidan also visited the port at al Arish, the Rafah border crossing, and the Egyptian Red Crescent logistics center during his visit. Additionally, he met with North Sinai Governor Maj. Gen. Khaled Megawer and Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit.
Turkey Officially Joins South Africa's Genocide Case Against Israel
On August 7, the Turkish Foreign Ministry announced that Turkey officially requested to join South Africa's genocide case against Israel over its actions in the Gaza war at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also confirmed the request and urged the international community to act against what he described as genocide, calling for pressure on Israel and its supporters.
A Turkish Soldier Killed by PKK in Northern Iraq
On August 7, a Turkish soldier was killed by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) during a Turkish military operation known as Operation Claw-Lock, in northern Iraq, the defense ministry announced.
The ministry also reported on August 9 that 12 PKK members were killed in northern Iraq.
Erdoğan and Qatari Emir Call for Action to Prevent Middle East Conflict
On August 8, Turkish President Erdoğan and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani urged the international community to take stronger action to prevent further escalation of the Middle East conflict. The appeal followed the emir's brief visit to Ankara, where he and Erdoğan discussed the recent killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Erdoğan criticized Israel for escalating tensions through attacks on Palestinian territories and Lebanon and called for effective measures to end the recent surge in Israeli aggression, according to a statement from Erdoğan's office.
Israel Extends Energy Contract with Turkish-Owned Dorad Energy
The Israeli Defense Ministry extended its contract with Dorad Energy, a power plant partially owned by Turkish businessman Ahmet Nazif Zorlu, who has close ties to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, according to the Jerusalem Post.
Despite strained relations with Turkey, Israel continues to channel significant funds from the Defense Ministry to Zorlu Holding, the Turkish conglomerate chaired by Zorlu. The company has been supplying electricity to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the Defense Ministry since 2004.
Zorlu Holding retains its 25 percent stake in Dorad Energy, which continues to power IDF bases, while the Israeli government holds a 37.5 percent stake through the state-controlled entity Kinet. The Defense Ministry clarified that the contract was not renewed but was adjusted for a discount rate to lower electricity costs.
In response to the claims, Zorlu Holding announced they are continuing efforts to divest Dorad Energy from their portfolio. The company stated that they no longer have any authority over decisions related to the Dorad Gas Power Plant. Zorlu Holding also confirmed that the sale and transfer of shares in the Ashdod and Ramat Negev Natural Gas Power Plants in Israel were finalized in May.
Turkish Foreign Minister Meets Syrian Opposition Leaders in Ankara
On August 8, Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with leaders of the main Syrian opposition groups in Ankara to discuss a political solution to the ongoing civil war in Syria.
The meeting included Hadi Al Bahra, leader of the Syrian National Coalition; Bader Jamous, head of the Syrian Negotiation Commission; and Abdurrahman Mustafa, leader of the Syrian interim government.
They discussed recent developments in the conflict and Turkey's support for realistic dialogue and negotiations aimed at achieving a UN-backed political resolution, the Turkish Foreign Ministry announced.
Somali and Ethiopian Foreign Ministers to Meet in Ankara Next Week Over Port Deal Dispute
Somali and Ethiopian foreign ministers will meet in Ankara next week to address disagreements over a port deal signed between Addis Ababa and the breakaway region of Somaliland earlier this year, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced on August 9.
The two foreign ministers met in Ankara last month with Fidan to discuss their issues and agreed to a follow-up meeting.
Fidan said at a news conference in Istanbul that the second round of talks will take place in Ankara next week.
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