ANALYSIS
"HTS is no longer an organization that Turkey can control" by Mustafa Enes Esen, VelevNews
One of the key reasons for the opposition's rapid advance lies in their disciplined approach in areas like Aleppo. They have refrained from committing massacres or engaging in looting, upholding the guarantees made to groups previously hostile to them. For instance, they allowed the YPG to withdraw their weapons following an agreement and did not harm officers from Assad's regime. This restraint signaled that regime elements in other cities could negotiate rather than resist. Had the opposition sought revenge, Assad's forces would have likely fought to the bitter end.
Currently, Turkey appears to be the primary beneficiary of Assad's fall. By supporting HTS, Ankara has positioned itself strategically in shaping Syria's future. However, the dynamics between Turkey and HTS have shifted significantly. As the de facto ruler of Syria, HTS has become increasingly independent, reducing its reliance on Turkey. Conversely, Ankara may now seek HTS’s cooperation on critical issues in Syria. Despite these challenges, Turkey holds a competitive advantage over other countries.
That said, challenges remain for Turkey. The growing influence of the YPG, which Ankara perceives as a major threat, complicates the situation. As the Syrian army retreated from eastern regions, it ceded control to the YPG, deeming it the lesser evil. This development has enabled the YPG to dominate 40% of Syria, including the oil-rich Deir ez-Zor. Control over oil resources is vital for the sustainability of any future state in this arid region, setting the stage for potentially fierce battles over these territories.
"A Weak Assad Benefits Turkey—and Is a Headache for Trump" by Jeremy Hodge and Hussein Nasser, Foreign Policy
The Syrian rebel blitz across Aleppo will create a significant headache for the incoming Trump administration, particularly with regard to U.S. support for the Kurdish SDF, whose forces on Sunday were defeated and expelled from Tal Rifaat after occupying the city and its surrounding towns since 2016.
Following the recent gains by the HTS and the SNA rebel militias, the SDF and the United States will be under even more pressure from Ankara to withdraw from Syria.
The U.S.-backed SDF has been critical to stemming the flow of Islamic State attacks. Should the group be forced to confront a resurgent rebel force backed by Turkish airpower, such trends may only get worse.
That said, if Turkey, HTS, or the SNA launch renewed attacks against other SDF-held areas—particularly around the city of Manbij—then U.S. troops will either be forced to confront a far stronger and more empowered rebel force backed by Turkish air power or withdraw.
SDF territory—which extends deep into the desert of eastern Syria—is also adjacent to areas with a significant buildup of Iranian troops, who could also exploit a U.S. withdrawal to seize new territory for themselves.
"Syrian Rebel Offensive Bolsters Turkey’s Geopolitical Influence" by Jared Malsin and Elvan Kivilcim, The Wall Street Journal
A rapid advance by Syrian rebels in recent days is giving the NATO member Turkey more power to limit Russian and Iranian influence in the region, but also risks triggering new instability on Ankara’s doorstep.
The advance stands to bolster Turkey’s sway over Syria’s future, especially with Russia occupied by war in Ukraine and Iran locked in confrontation with Israel. The government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is now in a stronger position to put pressure on Kurdish militias it opposes in Syria, some of which have ties to the U.S.
Turkey’s new position of strength could help it take a harder line in negotiations with Russia and Iran over Syria’s future.
Now, as the rebels capture more territory, some in the Turkish government hope that some of those refugees might see a chance to return home.
At the same time, the rebel advance poses new risks for Turkey, after several years in which fighting in Syria largely abated. Russia and the Syrian regime intensified airstrikes on Aleppo and other rebel-held territories in recent days, and a return to intense combat could send waves of refugees into Turkey, rather than easing pressure on its border.
In addition, other countries, including the U.S. and Russia, might look to Ankara for help in trying to rein in the rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, a longtime jihadist who has said he has given up extremism.
"Rebel roulette: Turkey's gamble on Syrian opposition offensive" by Benjamin Fève, The New Arab
Turkey's apparent triumph comes with significant caveats and risks. Extending influence over newly captured territories, particularly a major urban centre like Aleppo, will require Ankara to commit substantial economic and political capital.
Maintaining stability and providing basic services in these areas has a cost, and expanding this model to Aleppo and its environs would likely prove even more demanding. Additionally, Turkey would need to provide ongoing military and security support, including continuous rearmament of rebel groups controlling Aleppo.
Furthermore, the sustainability of these gains remains uncertain. The Syrian regime and its allies, particularly Russia and Iran, are unlikely to accept the loss of Aleppo without a robust response.
The possibility of an alliance between the Assad regime and Kurdish forces against Turkey and the opposition presents another concerning scenario for Ankara.
If the Syrian regime and its allies succeed in reclaiming the lost areas, it is almost certain they would impose collective punishment against the population in Idlib and push to retake the entire province. In such a scenario, Turkey could face an unprecedented wave of displaced Syrians seeking refuge across its borders, creating significant humanitarian and logistical challenges.
While Erdogan’s gambit seems to have strengthened his hand in the short term, many more cards are yet to be played in these Syrian stakes.
POLITICS
CHP Leader Calls for Peace and Urgent Dialogue with Assad
Speaking on December 7 about the recent escalation in Syria, CHP Chairman Ozgür Ozel emphasized Turkey's firm stance on its territorial sovereignty, stating, "Turkey is a country that does not give up even an inch of its land, and no one has an eye on its territory."
"It is in all our interests to defend peace over war and the territorial integrity of a country over its disintegration," he added.
Ozel also urged for immediate engagement with Bashar al-Assad, calling for the cessation of hostilities and the establishment of international dialogues to restore stability in the region.
International Delegation Seeks Meeting with PKK Leader Ocalan
An international delegation, including lawmakers from Turkey's pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), has applied to Turkey's Justice Ministry for permission to meet with Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
The delegation, which includes politicians, journalists, and activists, submitted their request on December 3. Key members include Walter Baier, president of the Party of the European Left; Francesca Ghirra, leader of the Green Left Alliance; and several other European officials and journalists.
Erbakan Questions Claims of Israel’s Waste Being Recycled in Turkey
On December 7, Fatih Erbakan, Chairman of the New Welfare Party, addressed the press before the 'Provincial Chairmen's Meeting' at the party headquarters. He raised concerns about claims that Israel's waste has been shipped to Turkey, specifically to Adana from Mersin Port.
Erbakan also questioned whether this harmful, health-threatening waste has been coming to Turkey for years and called on the relevant authorities to provide an urgent explanation.
Umit Ozlale Joins CHP, Boosting Party's MP Count to 129
Izmir MP Umut Ozlale, who was elected as a member of parliament from the Good Party and resigned on September 12, joined the CHP. With Ozlale's participation, the CHP’s number of MPs increased to 129.
During the party's group meeting on December 3, CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel pinned the party badge on Ozlale.
ECONOMY
Turkish Inflation Surpasses Expectations at 47.09% Annually in November
Turkey's inflation rate reached 47.09% year-on-year and 2.24% month-on-month in November, higher than expected, according to official data. Though it marked the lowest annual inflation since mid-2023, it could potentially reduce the prospect of an interest rate cut later this month.
Prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks rose by 5.1%, and health-related costs increased by 2.69%. The domestic producer price index also rose 0.66% month-on-month, marking an annual increase of 29.47%.
Turkey's Trade Deficit Grows 23.3% in November, Shrinks 27% Year-to-Date
Turkey's foreign trade deficit increased by 23.3% to $7.4 billion in November compared to last year. Exports decreased by 3.1% to $22.3 billion, while imports rose by 2.4% to $29.65 billion.
Over the first 11 months of 2024, exports increased by 2.5%, reaching $238.5 billion, while imports dropped by 6.4% to $311.7 billion. As a result, the trade deficit for the 11 months narrowed by 27% to $73.2 billion.
The 12-month trade deficit reached $79.3 billion as of November, and the export/import coverage ratio dropped to 75.2%.
Minister: Turkey's Mining Exports to Surpass $6 Billion in 2024
Turkey's mining exports reached $5.5 billion between January and November and are expected to exceed $6 billion by year-end, according to Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar.
Speaking at the Turkey Mining Summit in Istanbul, Bayraktar noted the country's rich mineral diversity, ranking seventh globally with 70 out of 90 known minerals. He also highlighted the sector's economic value, which grew to ₺270 billion ($7.77 billion) in 2023, and expressed a goal to raise mining's GDP contribution from 1.4% to 5%.
Fitch Predicts Policy Stability and Economic Improvements for Turkey in 2025
Fitch Ratings expects Turkey to maintain policy consistency in 2025, supported by tight monetary conditions, reduced budget deficits, and rational income policies.
In a report on Eastern Europe’s economic outlook, Fitch highlighted Turkey's progress in reducing external vulnerabilities and improving market perception through balanced economic measures. While gradual monetary easing is anticipated, high and persistent inflation remains a concern, the report said.
OECD: Turkey's Economic Growth to Slow in 2024 but Rebound in 2026
The OECD predicts Turkey's economic growth will slow to 3.5% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025 due to stabilization policies reducing domestic demand. However, exports are expected to grow, supported by a stronger external environment and a revival in international tourism.
By 2026, Turkey’s GDP growth is projected to rebound to 4% as the effects of stabilization measures ease, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook report.
Turkish Defense Contractors Show Significant Growth in 2023
Three Turkish defense companies recorded significant growth in 2023, with arms sales rising by 24% to $6 billion, according to a SIPRI report.
Baykar, known for its UAV systems, advanced from 79th to 69th place among the world’s top arms manufacturers, reporting $1.9 billion in revenue, with 90% from exports to countries like Ukraine.
Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAŞ) grew fastest, climbing from 88th place in 2022 to 78th in 2023 with $1.7 billion in sales, 31% from international markets.
Aselsan, Turkey’s largest defense electronics firm, experienced a more modest 12% growth, moving from 56th to 54th place and reporting $2.4 billion in revenue.
Turkey’s defense and aerospace exports surged, reaching $637.2 million in November 2023—a 32.3% annual increase. Haluk Gorgun, head of the Presidency of the Defense Industry, announced cumulative exports of $5.76 billion for the first 11 months of 2024, a 19.4% increase. Over the past year, rolling 12-month exports rose to $6.48 billion, reflecting an 18.4% year-on-year increase.
Turkey Signs Cooperation Protocol for 'Steel Dome' Air Defense Project
On December 5, the Turkish Ministry of Defense and the Presidency of the Defense Industry (SSB) signed a cooperation protocol for the Turkish Armed Forces’ Cloud Computing System Project, a key component of Turkey's ‘Steel Dome’ air defense initiative.
SSB President Haluk Gorgun highlighted that the project, developed with main contractor HAVELSAN, is crucial for ensuring cyber security coordination across the system, which is vital for the success of Turkey's domestic air and missile defense systems.
Turkey’s Banking Regulator Suspends Inflation Accounting for 2025
Turkey’s banking watchdog (BDDK) announced on December 5 that banks and financial firms, including leasing and asset management companies, will not need to apply inflation accounting in 2025. The decision removes a potential burden on their balance sheets and earnings before the year-end results.
Inflation accounting typically adjusts financial statements to account for extreme price changes, affecting key metrics like profitability.
Antalya Sets New Record with 16.6 Million Tourists in 2024
In the first 11 months of 2024, Antalya welcomed 16.6 million foreign tourists, surpassing previous records, according to Kaan Kaşif Kavaloğlu, head of the Mediterranean Touristic Hoteliers’ Association. The surge marked an 8% increase from the same period in 2023, which saw 15.7 million visitors. The city is on track to exceed 17 million tourists by year-end.
Russia, Germany, the U.K., and Poland remain top contributors, with nearly 3.85 million Russians and 3.4 million Germans visiting during January-November.
World Bank Approves $660 Million for Turkey's Low-Carbon Rail Expansion
The World Bank approved $660 million on December 5 to help Turkey modernize its rail network, boosting freight capacity, exports, and job creation while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The project will upgrade a 660-kilometer rail line between Divriği in Sivas and Kars near the Georgia border, creating a fully electrified route. Part of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, the project will raise rail freight capacity from 750,000 tons to 20 million tons annually, benefiting nearly 600,000 residents along the route and supporting local businesses, the bank said.
U.S. Court Rejects Halkbank’s Request to Avoid Prosecution
On December 6, a U.S. appeals court rejected Halkbank's request to reconsider a ruling allowing the U.S. Department of Justice to prosecute the Turkish state-owned bank.
The 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New York upheld its October decision, which stated that foreign state-owned entities like Halkbank are not immune from prosecution for commercial activities. The case involves allegations that Halkbank helped Iran evade U.S. sanctions.
HUMAN RIGHTS
UN Special Rapporteurs Accuse Turkey of Systematic Repression of Gulen Movement Associates
UN special rapporteurs have expressed serious concerns about Turkey's treatment of individuals allegedly linked to the Gulen movement. In a joint letter dated October 7, 2024, seven UN experts accused Turkey of using counter-terrorism laws to arbitrarily arrest and detain these individuals, subjecting them to torture and forced disappearances. Between June 2023 and June 2024, over 8,800 people were detained, and 1,500 were charged with terrorism offenses.
The rapporteurs also highlighted the issue of transnational renditions, alleging that Turkey had abducted and returned suspected Gulen affiliates from other countries.
In its response via a diplomatic note dated October 30, the Turkish government refrained from answering the allegations, highlighting accusations against the Gulen movement and requesting that international human rights mechanisms not be abused by its members.
ECHR Rules in Favor of 387 Applicants, Orders Compensation Over Unjust Arrests
The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) recently ruled in favor of 379 applicants arrested under suspicion of using ByLock, stating their detention lacked reasonable suspicion.
The court awarded €5,000 in non-pecuniary damages and expenses. The cases were categorized under "Kesler and Others v. Turkey" and "Sert and Others v. Turkey." This decision follows a similar ruling two weeks ago, where the court granted compensation to 499 applicants for similar violations.
On December 3, ECtHR again ruled that Turkey violated the right to a fair trial for eight judges and prosecutors. The case involved involuntary transfers and one demotion of judges and prosecutors between 2014 and 2015.
The court found that Turkey’s Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK) failed to offer adequate procedural safeguards, such as formal hearings and proper reasoning in its decisions. Six applicants were awarded €2,500 each, one €2,000 in non-pecuniary damages, and one did not file a claim.
Nine Protesters Arrested After Interrupting Erdogan’s Speech, But Later Released
Nine protesters were arrested after interrupting a speech last week by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the TRT World Forum in İstanbul. As Erdogan addressed the audience, the protesters accused his administration of hypocrisy, shouting slogans like "Ships are carrying bombs to Gaza" and "Zionists are continuing their operations in our seas and ports."
Erdogan quickly dismissed the accusations, asserting that no matter how much they provoked, they would not succeed in undermining his stance against Zionism.
Security forces detained the protesters, who were later charged with insulting the president and holding an illegal demonstration. The court later ordered their arrest.
The protesters were released on December 6 after a court accepted an appeal from their lawyers. The lawyers argued that their detention was unjustified and highlighted allegations of mistreatment, including being denied food and water for extended periods and facing degrading treatment.
It was also reported that female detainees were forcibly stripped of their headscarves when they entered prison. Turkish authorities launched an investigation and suspended three prison guards accused of involvement in the abuse.
FOREIGN POLICY
Turkey, Iran, and Russia Pursue Diplomatic Efforts as Syria Conflict Escalates
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called for Syrian President Bashar Assad to reconcile with his people and initiate dialogue with the opposition to end the conflict. Speaking at a joint press conference with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on December 2, Fidan said Turkey and Iran have agreed to resume diplomatic efforts along with Russia.
Fidan and Araghchi said Turkey, Iran, and Russia will hold a new trilateral meeting to address the ongoing conflict.
However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Ankara became tense as he accused Turkey of supporting the rebel offensive, sources told Middle East Eye. Contrary to expectations, Araghchi did not convey a diplomatic message from Syrian President Assad but instead voiced Tehran’s frustration, accusing Turkey of betrayal.
President Erdogan also expressed hope that Syria’s instability would end in a way that meets the legitimate demands of the Syrian people, speaking at a joint press conference with Montenegro’s president on December 2.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a phone call on December 3 to address the escalating situation in Syria.
Putin stressed the need to end aggression against the Syrian state and highlighted the importance of further coordination between Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
On his part, Erdogan reiterated Turkey's commitment to Syria’s territorial integrity, emphasizing the need for diplomatic solutions. Both leaders agreed on continued communication to de-escalate the crisis, with Erdogan underlining the importance of avoiding civilian harm and a lasting political resolution.
Moscow announced on December 4 that it remains in close contact with Iran and Turkey regarding the ongoing conflict in Syria. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that the foreign ministers of the three guarantor nations are maintaining regular communication to address the situation.
Turkish President Erdogan called on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to pursue an urgent political resolution to Syria's civil war. During a call with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on December 5, Erdogan emphasized the need for the Syrian regime to engage with its people and commit to a comprehensive political solution, according to a statement from the presidency.
On December 6, Turkish President Erdogan said he wanted an Islamist-led rebel advance in Syria to “continue without incident" but voiced concerns about the presence of terrorist groups among them. While acknowledging the progress, Erdogan stressed that these groups complicate Turkey's position.
He also noted that Turkey had earlier reached out to Syrian President Assad, suggesting a joint effort to shape Syria’s future, but did not receive a positive response.
Turkish FM Fidan Attends NATO Meeting, Discusses Syria with Allies
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan participated in NATO foreign ministerial meetings on Dec. 3-4, led by new Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who assumed the role on Oct. 1.
During the summit, Fidan discussed the NATO agenda with his German, Canadian, and Spanish counterparts, Annalena Baerbock, Mélanie Joly, and José Manuel Albares. The ministers also exchanged views on the escalating situation in Syria.
Assad Regime Falls as Rebels Seize Damascus Amid Intense Diplomatic Efforts by Iran, Turkey, and Russia
On December 7, foreign ministers from Iran, Turkey, and Russia met in Doha, Qatar, to discuss Syria's ongoing conflict. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that the countries agreed to start political dialogue between the Syrian government and opposition groups.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also met with Araghchi, focusing on the latest developments in Syria ahead of the Astana-format talks. The discussions were "constructive and extensive," state-run Anadolu news agency cited diplomatic sources.
However, on December 8, Syrian rebels announced the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad after seizing Damascus, marking the end of his family's decades-long rule following over 13 years of civil war. They said they had entered the capital with no sign of army deployments.
The Syrian army command reportedly informed officers the same day that Assad's regime had fallen. Assad flew out of Damascus for an unknown destination earlier in the day, two senior army officers told Reuters.
Later in the day, Russian state media reported that Assad fled to Russia, and Moscow granted him and his family asylum.
Shortly after the fall of the Assad regime, Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Guler and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held a phone call on December 8 to discuss the significant developments in Syria and security issues. Turkey’s Defense Ministry announced on X that the two leaders also addressed bilateral and regional defense matters during their conversation.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Syria’s new government must be inclusive, as the Syrian people will determine their future after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. In a press conference in Doha, Fidan emphasized that both international and regional powers must act cautiously and work to maintain Syria's territorial integrity.
White House in Active Talks with Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt to Broker Gaza Ceasefire
The White House announced on December 2 that it is in "active conversations" with Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt to broker a ceasefire in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Gaza.
National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby emphasized that Hamas remains the main obstacle to peace, stating that the group is isolated and weakened. He also stressed the importance of Hamas coming to the negotiation table and confirmed that efforts to secure a ceasefire are underway with key regional partners.
Turkey and Greece Hold Talks in Athens to Strengthen Bilateral Relations
On December 3, Turkish and Greek diplomats met in Athens for the third round of political dialogue. The talks, led by Turkey's Deputy Foreign Minister Mehmet Kemal Bozay and Greek counterpart Alexandra Papadopoulou, focused on strengthening ties and addressing regional issues.
The meeting also laid the groundwork for the sixth high-level cooperation council session, set to take place in Turkey next year, according to Turkey's Foreign Ministry.
President Erdogan Hosts Japan’s Crown Prince in Ankara
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed Japan’s Crown Prince Akishino Fumihito at the Presidential Complex in Ankara on December 4.
The meeting marked the 100th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Japan. President Erdogan emphasized the two nations' long-standing friendship and future aspirations during the visit.
Ambassador Sinirlioğlu Appointed OSCE Secretary General
At the 31st Ministerial Council Meeting of the OSCE in Malta on December 5-6, 2024, Turkey's candidate, retired Ambassador Feridun H. Sinirlioglu, was appointed OSCE Secretary General.
His election by consensus of 57 member states reflects confidence in Turkey's diplomatic efforts and active role in resolving global crises, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said.
Turkey’s Passport Ranked 93rd in 2024 VisaGuide Index
Turkey's passport ranked 93rd globally in the 2024 VisaGuide Passport Index, with a score of 48.75. The index evaluated 199 countries, with Singapore at the top and Somalia at the bottom.
Turkey ranks between Timor-Leste and Kiribati, while passports from smaller nations like Kiribati and some Latin American countries, such as Nicaragua and Venezuela, rank higher.
The passport provides access to 72 visa-free destinations, 36 destinations offering visas upon arrival, and 22 eVisa options.
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