ANALYSIS
"Turkey's Bet on Syria: All in for HTS" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Despite the many uncertainties clouding Syria's future, the Turkish government is fully committing its support to the country’s new government. To bolster the new leadership during this precarious period, Turkey is prepared to offer comprehensive economic support. Without establishing an economically viable country, HTS may struggle to survive.
Pro-government media in Turkey reports that Ankara is also poised to play a pivotal role in restructuring Syria's military forces by providing advisory and expert support. However, indications suggest that Turkey’s defense cooperation with Syria may extend beyond a simple security agreement.Plans include unifying Syria's fragmented military under a single structure and establishing a Turkish military presence at five strategic locations. This would involve establishing a military base in Damascus, a naval base in Tartus, and conducting joint drills and operations in the Mediterranean. This military restructuring could spark a geopolitical rivalry between Turkey and Israel due to their conflicting visions for Syria’s future.
From diplomatic initiatives to military restructuring and energy cooperation, Ankara is investing significant political, economic, and strategic capital to ensure the survival of the Golani administration. However, this assertive approach is not without risks. The security arrangements with Syria could complicate Turkey’s volatile relations with Israel and, by extension, its interactions with the United States. The integration of the Kurds into the new Syrian government may also have repercussions for Turkey's new Kurdish opening.
"Turkey bets on jailed Kurdish militant to revive peace process" by Ayla Jean Yackley, Financial Times
“I am ready to take the necessary positive steps and make the required call,” Öcalan said, according to notes of the meeting released on Sunday by the People’s Equality and Democracy party (DEM), whose base is overwhelmingly Kurdish. He also said he had the “competence and determination to contribute positively” to a new peace process”.
In another sign of the outreach to Kurds, the government on Sunday announced a $14bn investment into the country’s impoverished, predominately Kurdish south-east. Vice-president Cevdet Yılmaz welcomed what he called a chance for “the end of terrorism and the strengthening of an environment of peace and security”.
Analysts say Turkey, the main backer of rebels who ousted Assad, may now worry that instability and direct confrontation with the SDF could trigger a backlash among its own 15mn Kurdish population.
While security forces have largely stamped out PKK violence inside Turkey, eradicating the threat completely may now require political concessions to its Kurdish minority, said Mesut Yeğen, a researcher at the Reform Institute, an Istanbul think-tank.
DEM calls for constitutional guarantees on the right to Kurdish-language education, greater local governance and the release of thousands of Kurdish activists and politicians. This includes Selahattin Demirtaş, who challenged Erdoğan for the presidency but has been locked up since 2016.
"The Biggest Foreign-Policy Challenges Facing Trump in 2025", The Economist
Trump will also face the challenge of how to approach the competing interests and actions of U.S. allies such as Israel and Turkey in Syria now that Assad is gone.
Turkey, a NATO member that doesn’t always play nice with its allies, could also be a source of headaches for Trump. Ankara views U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in Syria, which played a key role in defeating the Islamic State’s caliphate, as terrorists. If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan decides to move forward with a military incursion into territory held by the Kurds, it could put Trump in an awkward position. Trump has already pointed to the big role Turkey is set to play in Syria as a key supporter of HTS. Time will tell if the president-elect will sit back and let Erdogan run the show, or if he will feel compelled to take a more direct approach.
POLITICS
Turkey's DEM Party Engages in Talks to Revive Kurdish Peace Process
Regarding the DEM Party's visit to Ocalan on December 29, Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz stated, "We will follow the developments together in the coming times."
In his New Year's message, MHP Chairman Devlet Bahceli said, "The meeting not only bolstered democracy and hopes for Turkish-Kurdish unity but also marked the start of a promising new phase". He further noted that there should be a gradual transition to the action phase from now on.
On January 2, a delegation from Turkey's pro-Kurdish opposition, Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), met with Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus and far-right leader Devlet Bahceli. The delegation included DEM Party lawyers Sirri Sureyya Onder and Pervin Buldan and 82-year-old Kurdish politician Ahmet Turk.
The meeting was part of tentative efforts to resume the peace process aimed at resolving the Kurdish issue. The delegation is also scheduled to meet with the Future Party, ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Felicity Party on January 6, with the New Welfare Party and DEVA Party on January 7.
DEM Party Group Deputy Chairman Sezai Temelli announced that another meeting with Ocalan will take place after discussions with all parties are completed, followed by a public statement.
CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel commented on the DEM Party's talks with Ocalan and the MHP, saying, "We will not obstruct or disrupt the process, but we won’t be part of any political party's agenda." He added, "We will never allow this issue to be used for personal gain or as a re-election tool."
Asked about talks with the PYD, Ahmet Turk said there are no plans for such discussions but added, "We would like Turkey to establish friendly relations with the PYD. Embracing Kurds can help Turkey become more influential in the region."
Turk also mentioned that after the second or third round of talks, there might be a call for the PKK to disarm, but nothing is certain yet. He added that the issue of a general amnesty for PKK members was not discussed during the DEM Party delegation's meeting with Ocalan.
Immunity Motions for 16 MPs Sent to Turkey's Parliament
The Turkish Grand National Assembly received immunity motions for 16 MPs. The politicians facing potential loss of immunity include CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel, DEM Party Co-Chairs Tuncer Bakirhan and Tulay Hatimogullari, along with CHP Group Deputy Chairman Ali Mahir Basarir, Good Party's Group Deputy Chairman Turhan Comez, and DEM Party's Omer Faruk Gergerlioglu from Kocaeli, who is also a human rights activist.
Yunus Emre Foundation Faces Fraud Allegations, Two Prominent Figures Resign
In June, Professor Şeref Ateş, the head of the Institute, was dismissed. He travelled to Germany three days later and has not returned since DW Turkish reported.
Last summer, tax inspectors from the Ministry of Treasury and Finance started investigating the Yunus Emre Foundation. They discovered that the foundation was linked to fake invoice schemes through signboard companies with no actual business operations. On July 26, 2024, the inspectors sent a letter to the foundation demanding documents and explanations about these invoices.
It also came to light that Rahmi Goktas, the wife of Family Minister Mahinur Goktas and Kutalmış Yalcın, the son of MHP member Semih Yalcin, resigned after it was revealed that the foundation had been defrauded using fake invoices.
Arrest warrants were issued for 18 people in connection with an investigation by the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office, and 17 former Institute executives have been detained.
Government Continue to Target Municipalities Over Unpaid Premium Debts
Labour and Social Security Minister Vedat İsikhan announced that after a legislative amendment, the government will now deduct premium debts of municipalities and their affiliates directly from the source. İsikhan also told reporters that some municipalities have been seized due to unpaid debts.
Ankara Metropolitan Municipality (ABB) Mayor Mansur Yavas accused the Social Security Institution (SGK) of hindering the municipality’s efforts to pay its debts. In a recent statement, Yavas said despite offering a considerable amount of real estate, the SGK has refused to accept them as a form of settlement. He claimed that the rejection aimed to undermine the success of Republican People’s Party (CHP) municipalities.
Last month, the Social Security Institution (SGK) began to seize six municipalities, including the metropolitan municipalities of Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, due to overdue debts. Opposition parties criticized the move, arguing that much of the debt belongs to municipalities governed by the AK Party for years but were transferred to opposition control in the last local elections.
Good Party Spokesperson Zorlu Resigns
Ankara MP Prof. Dr. Kursad Zorlu announced his resignation from the Good Party. In a statement on social media, Zorlu said, "There is no longer any opportunity to move towards a common goal" within the party.
Ruling Party Plans Leadership and Cabinet Changes Before February Congress
The ruling AK Party is preparing for major leadership and cabinet changes ahead of its congress in late February, according to Turkiye Daily.
Sources say five to six ministers are expected to be replaced, while key figures like Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Environment Minister Murat Kurum, and Defense Minister Yasar Guler will likely keep their positions.
“It wouldn’t be surprising if anyone outside these names is replaced,” an AK Party insider said.
Halk TV Chairman Resolves Dispute Over Flash Haber TV Purchase
On December 31, Halk TV Board Chairman Cafer Mahiroglu publicly addressed the ongoing dispute over the purchase of Flash Haber TV.
Mahiroglu clarified that on November 25, he announced that Flash Haber had joined the Halk TV family after both parties signed protocols outlining the terms of the sale. The advance payment was made in the presence of lawyers, and a joint statement was approved by Flash Haber’s Chairman of the Board. According to the agreement, the transfer of shares was to be completed by November 30, 2024.
However, Mahiroglu stated that no response was received from Flash Haber’s lawyers following a written request for the transfer. When contacted, Flash Haber’s Chairman claimed he had faced threats and pressures during meetings in Ankara and, citing these concerns, refrained from completing the share transfer. He reportedly refused to refund the payment despite the protocols and legal obligations.
Finally, he called for the Flash Haber Chairman to complete the share transfer or immediately refund the payment.
Mahiroglu announced on January 2 that they recovered the advance payment following a public backlash. He stated, "No one can pursue personal interests by hiding behind institutions or using their names," holding the Flash News Board of Directors accountable for the situation.
ECONOMY
Israel's Trade with Turkey Shows Significant Decline in 2024
Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics released the latest import-export data for November 2024, showing a significant drop in Turkey’s exports to Israel.
In November 2024, Israel imported $47.5 million worth of products from Turkey, a sharp decrease compared to $104.3 million in October 2024. Over the first eleven months of 2024, Israel’s total imports from Turkey amounted to $1.962 billion, a decrease of 53.97% from last year's period, which saw $4.262 billion worth of imports.
Meanwhile, Israel’s exports to Turkey reportedly have also fallen. In November 2024, Israel exported only $1.7 million to Turkey, compared to $98.4 million in November 2023. The total value of Israeli exports to Turkey from January to November 2024 was $597.7 million, down from $1.415 billion in the same period last year.
Trade Deficit Widens Monthly but Narrows Annually
According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), exports in November 2024 fell by 3.1% compared to the same month last year, totalling $22.29 billion. Imports, on the other hand, rose by 2.7%, reaching $29.75 billion. The foreign trade deficit for November increased by 25% year-on-year, climbing to $7.5 billion.
However, in January-November, the foreign trade deficit dropped by 27%, falling from $100.24 billion to $73.34 billion. The export-import coverage ratio also improved during this period, rising from 69.9% in 2023 to 76.5% in 2024.
Turkish Banks Report $16.5 Billion Net Income in 11 Months
Turkish banks recorded a combined net income of 583.1 billion liras ($16.5 billion) between January and November 2024, an 8.9% increase from the same period last year, according to data from the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK).
As of November, total assets grew by 32.3% compared to the end of 2023, reaching 31.2 trillion liras. Loans, the largest asset category, rose by 32.4% to 15.5 trillion liras, with non-performing loans making up only 1.8% of the total.
Deposits increased by 22.4%, totalling 18.2 trillion liras. The securities portfolio expanded by 28% to 5.1 trillion liras, while total shareholders' equity grew by 27.7% to 2.8 trillion liras.
Annual Inflation in Turkey Hits 44.38% in December
According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), annual inflation in December 2024 stood at 44.38 percent. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.03 percent on a monthly basis in December.
Meanwhile, the Inflation Research Group (ENAG), an independent academic group, reported a 2.34 percent rise in consumer prices compared to November. ENAG calculated the annual inflation rate at 83.40 percent.
Bad Check Data Soar in December
In December, the number of bad checks in Turkey rose by 115.4% compared to the previous month, reaching 24,729. The hike marks the fourth time in 2024 that the number of bad checks exceeded 20,000.
The total value of bad checks in December surged by 111%, reaching 17.4 billion liras. The overall amount of checks presented in December was 648.3 billion liras. As a result, the share of bad checks in the total check value hit its highest point since September 2019, at 2.68%.
Poverty and Deprivation Rates Rise in Turkey in 2024
Turkey's poverty rate increased to 13.6% in 2024, up by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous year, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) reported on December 30.
Material and social deprivation rates, measuring those unable to afford at least seven out of 13 essential items, also climbed from 13.3% in 2023 to 14.4% in 2024.
The highest poverty rates were recorded in the central provinces of Kırıkkale and Aksaray, while the southern cities of Gaziantep and Adıyaman had the lowest rates.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Report: 58 Journalists Sentenced to 135 Years in Prison in Turkey in 2024
Turkish authorities sentenced 58 journalists to a combined 135 years in prison in 2024, according to a report by Zeynep Oduncu Kutevi, an opposition lawmaker from the pro-Kurdish People’s Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party).
The report highlighted that 112 journalists were detained, 26 were arrested, and 60 investigations were launched against media workers. Authorities filed 33 new court cases and prosecuted 872 journalists. Financial penalties amounting to 261,820 Turkish lira were imposed, alongside 240 incidents of threats, attacks, or obstruction targeting journalists, the report said.
Turks Scammed by Cyber Fraud Farms in Cambodia
Cybersecurity expert Ersin Cahmutoglu has revealed that cyber fraud farms in Cambodia have scammed thousands of Turkish citizens out of millions of liras. According to Cahmutoglu, these scams are run by Turkish individuals who either moved to Cambodia for work or were tricked and forced to work in cyber fraud centers under threats.
The fraudsters target Turkish citizens, posing as legitimate companies offering investments in cryptocurrencies, stock markets, and global firms. The operations are reportedly led by Chinese and Cambodian nationals, with some Turks also involved. Cahmutoglu claims these fraudulent companies have strong ties to the Cambodian government and police, making complaints ineffective.
Reports estimate that these scams generate over $12 billion annually. Cahmutoglu identified Ly Yong Phat, a wealthy Cambodian businessman and senator, as a key figure behind the schemes. Last September, the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on Ly Yong Phat and his companies for human rights violations.
Cahmutoglu also criticized the Turkish Embassy in Phnom Penh for failing to assist Turkish victims who sought help.
Kyrgyzstan Hands Over Gulen-Linked Schools to Turkish Maarif Foundation
Kyrgyzstan announced on December 31 that it transferred educational institutions linked to the Gulen movement to the state-run Turkish Maarif Foundation (TMF).
The Kyrgyz Cabinet of Ministers stated that the decision was revealed during a meeting between Deputy Chairman Edil Baisalov and TMF’s Kyrgyzstan coordinator, Husnu Bircan.
Turkey Sees Sharp Increase in Femicide Cases in 2024
According to The We Will Stop Femicide Platform (KCDP), the number of women killed in Turkey in 2024 surged to a record high of 394, marking a sharp increase in domestic violence. The KCDP's annual report, released on January 3, also revealed that 259 women died under suspicious circumstances last year.
In comparison, 315 women were killed in 2023, and 248 women died under suspicious circumstances that year.
Turkey Bans Tango Messaging App
Turkey has banned Tango, a popular messaging and live-streaming app with over 400 million users worldwide. The decision came after a ruling by the Ankara 1st Criminal Court.
This ban adds to the list of restrictions Turkey has previously imposed on platforms like Discord and Roblox.
“Yemeksepeti” Allegedly Pays Hackers to Prevent Data Leak
Turkey’s top food delivery platform, Yemeksepeti, allegedly transferred €200,000 ($208,000) in cryptocurrency to hackers who accessed the personal data of millions of Turkish citizens.
Reports suggest the payment was made to stop the hackers from releasing the stolen information.
According to the pro-government Daily Sabah, Yemeksepeti filed a criminal complaint with the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office, claiming a data breach and extortion attempt targeted it. The company, however, denied any breach, stating that internal investigations found no evidence of a security compromise. Yemeksepeti dismissed the allegations as baseless and aimed at damaging its reputation, insisting its systems are secure and free of vulnerabilities.
FOREIGN POLICY
Turkish Citizen Appointed by HTS Leader Removed from Wanted Terrorists List
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa recently appointed Turkish citizen Omer Ciftci, codenamed ‘Muhtar Türki’, as a brigadier general.
However, it was later revealed that Ciftci was listed as one of the Ministry of Interior's 'Wanted Terrorists'. Following the news, it was discovered that Ciftci's name had been removed from the list overnight.
Reports suggest that this decision to remove his name from the list was made under the orders of Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya.
Turkey Calls for Syrian Government to Take Over ISIL Camps
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called on Syria’s transitional government to take control of camps and prisons housing ISIL suspects, currently managed by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Fidan stated that Turkey is ready to provide support for this transition.
Speaking at a news conference with Belgian Foreign Minister Bernard Quintin in Ankara on January 2, Fidan also said the imprisoned ISIL supporters should be taken back by their home countries.
Over 100 Killed in Clashes Between Turkish-Backed Groups and SDF
More than 100 fighters were killed in the past two days in northern Syria due to fighting between Turkish-backed groups and Syrian Kurdish forces.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported on January 5 that since Friday evening, clashes in villages near the city of Manbij have resulted in 101 deaths. Among the dead, 85 were members of pro-Turkish groups, and 16 were from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Former Turkish Officer Claims He Sold Arms to HTS Leader Jolani
Nuri Gokhan Bozkir, a former Turkish military officer serving nearly 22 years for smuggling explosives to ISIL, claimed during a January 2 court hearing that he had sold arms to Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, now the de facto leader of Syria.
Bozkir, the only defendant in custody in the high-profile 2002 murder case of academic Necip Hablemitoglu, testified via video link to the Ankara 28th High Criminal Court. He is accused of aiding Hablemitoglu’s assassination.
In his defence, Bozkir stated, “I was friends with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known as Jolani. This friendship made me a target. Jolani is now president, but I’m paying the price for being labelled a weapons dealer.” He argued that his actions were meant to benefit Turkey but led to his prosecution.
Putin Appoints Trustee to Anadolu Efes' Russian Operations
Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed a trustee for Anadolu Efes’ operations in Russia, transferring control of AB InBev Efes BV to a local entity named "GK Vmeste." This move, affecting one of Russia's top three beer producers, led to a 10 percent drop in Anadolu Efes' shares.
The company, founded in 2018 by Turkey's Anadolu Efes and Belgium's AB InBev, is the last major foreign-controlled company in Russia's beer industry to come under local management.
Airline Workers Accuse Company of Smuggling Aircraft Parts to Russia
Former employees of Antalya-based private airline C. Havacilik AS filed a criminal complaint with the prosecutor's office, alleging serious misconduct by the company.
In their complaint, the workers accused the airline of transporting millions of dollars in bags during flights to Russia, smuggling tons of aircraft parts by falsifying official documents, and violating international sanctions against Russia.
The workers also claimed that despite requests for an inspection, the General Directorate of Civil Aviation ignored the alleged illegal activities, citing desk inspection reports that found no wrongdoing, as if a proper investigation had been conducted.
Sudan's Army Chief Supports Turkey's Peace Initiative with UAE
Analyst Patrick Heinisch said Sudan's army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has reviewed recommendations from a committee analyzing the UAE's stance and evaluating Turkey's proposal to mediate disputes between Sudan and the UAE.
Heinisch also reported that General Burhan welcomed Turkey's peace initiative during his meeting with Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Burhanettin Duran on January 4 in Port Sudan. Turkey's foreign minister is expected to develop the details of this initiative, which could pave the way for peace efforts in Sudan.
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