ANALYSIS
"Why Is Turkey Cozying Up to Syria?" by Sinan Ciddi, Foreign Policy
Erdogan ultimately failed to achieve what would have been the Turkish government’s first attempt to carry out regime change in a foreign country. This failure was not through lack of trying but due to a false set of assumptions. Erdogan assumed that the Assad regime would collapse in a matter of months, much like Hosni Mubarak’s in Egypt and Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali’s in Tunisia. What he failed to anticipate was the lifeline thrown to Assad by Russia and Iran, allowing the regime in Damascus to survive.
For Ankara, the pressure to engage with Damascus is clear. Erdogan is under tremendous pressure to placate Turkish voters, who want to see more than 4 million Syrian refugees repatriated as soon as possible. This cannot happen without Assad’s cooperation.
The most likely reason for the current rapprochement is political uncertainty. Put simply, there is no telling what the dynamics facing the region will look like after January 2025, following the November U.S. presidential election. No one can accurately foresee what U.S. foreign policy toward the region will look like under a Kamala Harris or second Trump administration. It is also unclear if the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza will spread to Lebanon or whether Iran would seek Assad’s help to transfer weapons to Lebanon.
A rapprochement could yield several wins for Ankara and Damascus. For Assad, the removal of Turkish troops from Syria may also come with the added benefit of an end to the existence of opposition groups. With no Turkish backing, their ability to survive may be undercut. In turn, Assad could accommodate Erdogan’s goal to repatriate Syrian refugees from Turkey, which would reduce domestic public pressure on the Turkish president. Such a compromise would also please the European Union, which has leaned on Turkey to block the passage of Syrian refugees from Turkey to Europe.
Erdogan and Assad are no longer just willing to procrastinate. Both sides are likely anticipating a change of guard in Washington and are interested in capitalizing on what satisfies their interests, without waiting to see how a second Trump administration might seek to shape the region.
"Turkey Revels in the Role It Played in Prisoner Swap" by Vivian Yee and Safak Timur, The New York Times
When the prisoners traded by Russia, the United States, Germany and other countries walked toward home and freedom on Thursday, they did so on increasingly familiar ground for prisoner swaps — in Turkey, a country that has molded itself into an important go-between for Moscow and the West since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
It was unclear how important a role Turkey played in the many months of negotiations that led to Thursday’s swap. Still, the fact that the complex, multicountry exchange occurred on Turkish soil allowed the country to cast itself as a key player on the world stage.
It also allowed Turkey to try to put a positive spin on its sometimes tense relations with its NATO allies, many of which have been frustrated that the country declined to join Western sanctions on Russia and expanded economic ties with Moscow even as the West tried to isolate it.
Turkey stands out for how deliberately it has mapped out a middle ground, sometimes tacking toward what would benefit Russia, other times making concessions to Western interests. Turkish officials argue that it is only by forging a path independent of both that they can usher in breakthroughs such as Thursday’s exchange.
POLITICS
Mersin Municipality's Accounts Seized Over Unpaid Debts
The accounts of Mersin Metropolitan Municipality, led by the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), were seized due to unpaid debts to the Social Security Institution (SGK) following a directive from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to collect overdue municipal debts.
Mersin Mayor Vahap Secer criticized the move, alleging it targets opposition-led municipalities. Secer also accused the government of using the debt issue to discredit and undermine CHP-led municipalities rather than simply recovering debts.
Main Opposition Reveals Inherited Debts from AK Party and MHP
The Republican People’s Party (CHP) disclosed the debts inherited by its municipalities from the ruling AK Party and its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
CHP Deputy Chairman Gokan Zeybek revealed on July 31 that when the CHP took over Ankara in 2019, it inherited a $2 billion debt from former AKP Mayor Melih Gokcek. The municipality has since reduced this debt to $1 billion.
In Istanbul, the CHP inherited a $535 million debt in 2019, which has now risen to $548 million despite significant investments in the subway network, Zeybek said. Adana’s debt, inherited from the MHP in 2019, was $1.18 billion and has been reduced to $362 million, he added.
Zeybek also listed 10 district municipalities with the highest debts, ranging from 1.4 billion lira to 498 million lira, which the CHP took over in the March local elections.
Former Interior Minister Soylu Seeks Removal of Parliamentary Immunity Amid Mafia Allegations
Suleyman Soylu, Turkey’s former interior minister and current AKP lawmaker, requested the removal of his parliamentary immunity following allegations from opposition politicians and journalists linking him to mafia and crime groups.
Soylu submitted a petition to Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus, asking for his immunity to be lifted. If granted, Soylu could face trial if an indictment is issued based on the allegations.
Soylu stated that his request aims to combat “evil forces” that are spreading doubt and defamation against him.
ECONOMY
Central Bank Reserves Drop by Nearly $6 Billion
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) reported a significant decrease in its reserves as of July 26. The bank’s gross foreign exchange reserves fell by $2.8 billion to $91.9 billion, down from $94.7 billion on July 19.
Gold reserves also dropped by $3.1 billion, decreasing from $59.2 billion to $56.1 billion.
Overall, the Central Bank’s total reserves fell by $5.9 billion, from $153.9 billion to $148 billion in the week of July 26.
Tax Advantage Removed for Currency Protected Deposits
The tax advantage previously applied to Currency Protected Deposits (KKM) in Turkey has been removed. According to a Presidential Decree published on July 31 in the Official Gazette, a new withholding tax has been introduced: 7.5 percent for accounts with a maturity of 6 months and 5 percent for accounts with a maturity of up to 1 year.
The new tax policy will also apply to gold conversion accounts and currency-protected participation accounts at the same rates.
Former Central Bank Chief Economist Hakan Kara commented on the new tax changes on his social media account. Kara said that the economy administration is signaling it has sufficient foreign currency reserves and is not concerned about a potential drop in KKM accounts.
Turkey’s Trade Deficit Grows by 10.8% in June
According to the official data released on July 31, Turkey's foreign trade deficit increased by 10.8% year on year to $5.8 billion in June. Imports fell by 4.4% to $24.9 billion, while exports dropped 8.3% to $19.4 billion.
The export-to-import coverage ratio declined from 79.7% in June 2023 to 76.4% last month.
From January to June 2024, exports rose by 2.6% to $126 billion, and imports decreased by 8.4% to $168.8 billion, leading to a 30.5% reduction in the trade deficit to $42.5 billion.
Germany was Turkey's top export partner in June with $1.555 billion, followed by the US with $1.287 billion and the UK with $1.059 billion.
China led with $3.394 billion for imports, followed by Russia with $2.948 billion and Germany with $1.930 billion. The top five countries accounted for 30.1% of exports and 42.7% of imports.
Erdogan's Spending Rises 176% in First Half of 2024
The Turkish Presidency's spending surged by 176.8 percent in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to the Presidential Strategy and Budget Office. Erdogan's office spent TL 6.1 billion ($183 million) from January to June 2024, up from TL 2.1 billion ($63 million) in 2023.
The report also noted that expenditures of all public institutions increased, except for the Presidential Strategy and Budget Office and the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD).
The Directorate of Religious Affairs (Diyanet) spent TL 46.7 billion ($1.4 billion) in the first six months of 2024, a 137.3 percent increase from last year.
The report predicts a budget deficit of over TL 2 trillion ($60 billion) by the end of the year.
Turkey Aims to Finalize Free Trade Agreement with Gulf Cooperation Council by Year-End
Turkey aims to complete negotiations for a free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) by the end of the year, the Turkish Trade Ministry announced on July 31. The announcement follows the first round of negotiations hosted by Ankara earlier in the week.
The ministry reported that discussions covered goods trade, rules of origin, contracting, tourism, and health. The talks also addressed service trade and investment facilitation.
Both sides have agreed to continue negotiations through online meetings and to hold a second round in Riyadh later this year, the ministry said.
Turkey Increases Natural Gas Prices by 38% for Residential Use
Turkey's state-run energy operator, BOTAŞ, announced a 38 percent increase in natural gas prices for residential use, effective August 1. The price hike also affects small to medium-sized industrial customers, who will see a 33.1 percent increase if their annual consumption is 300,000 cubic meters or less and not used for electricity generation.
The Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK) explained with a separate announcement that these increases are reflected in the unit gas procurement costs. EPDK also reported that the average residential natural gas price across Turkey has risen by 24.4% when factoring in procurement costs, system usage fees, and taxes.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkish Lawmaker Tugrul Turkes Visits Gezi Park Defendants in Prison
Tugrul Turkes, a nationalist-leaning lawmaker from Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), visited businessman and philanthropist Osman Kavala and four other Gezi Park trial defendants in Istanbul.
On July 31, Turkes announced on X that he visited Kavala, Tayfun Kahraman, Can Atalay in Marmara Prison, and Cigdem Mater and Mine Ozerden in Bakirkoy Women’s Prison.
He did not share details about his conversations with the defendants but thanked the justice minister and his deputy for facilitating the visits.
In an interview with 12punto following the visit, Turkes said the Gezi Park defendants are doing well and are closely following their trial developments. He emphasized that each defendant has a unique perspective, and viewing them as members of the same crime group is incorrect.
Top Court Rules Removal of Jailed Opposition Lawmaker's Status Invalid
A detailed ruling published in Turkey's Official Gazette on August 1 declared that the Court of Cassation's decision not to enforce its October judgment had no legal standing. The Constitutional Court ruled, by a vote of 10 to 4, that the failure of the Court of Cassation to implement the rights violation decision regarding Atalay was legally invalid. The reading of the Court of Cassation's decision in the General Assembly could not result in Atalay losing his parliamentary seat, it said.
The Constitutional Court had previously ruled in October and December that Atalay's imprisonment violated his right to be elected. However, in January, parliament removed Atalay from his seat after the Court of Cassation refused to release him.
Ozgur Ozel, leader of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), called for Atalay’s release and reinstatement as an MP, emphasizing that all his rights should be restored.
Atalay's lawyer, Deniz Ozen, told Reuters that the Constitutional Court's ruling stated it was illegal to keep Atalay imprisoned and strip him of his status as a deputy.
In response, Presidential Advisor Mehmet Ucum criticized the Constitutional Court’s ruling on his X account on August 1. Ucum argued that the Court's conclusion, that Atalay’s criminal case was not finalized, failed to acknowledge the positive law and he added that arbitrarily rejected the Supreme Court of Appeals' decision.
Turkish Police Detain 55 Over Alleged Gulen Movement Links
Turkish police have arrested 55 people in 21 provinces over the past four days for suspected ties to the Gülen movement, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on August 1.
FOREIGN POLICY
Israel-Turkey Tensions Surge After Katz’s Remarks and NATO Expulsion Call
On July 29, Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz called for NATO to expel Turkey after President Erdogan threatened that Turkey might enter Israel, similar to its past interventions in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Israeli Foreign Ministry announced that Katz had instructed diplomats to urgently reach out to all NATO members, urging them to condemn Turkey and demand its expulsion from the alliance.
Katz criticized Erdogan, comparing his threats to those of Saddam Hussein and warned him to remember the consequences of such actions.
Tensions between Turkey and Israel escalated further on August 1 after Israeli Minister Israel Katz made critical remarks about President Erdogan.
Katz accused Erdogan of turning Turkey into a dictatorship to support Hamas militants, blocking Instagram, and causing $6 billion in annual losses to Turkish exporters by severing commercial ties. He also accused Erdogan of erasing the legacy of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and expressed hope for better days, tagging Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu in his tweet.
Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz condemned Katz's comments, stating that those responsible for massacres in Gaza should not speak about Turkey or its president. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called Katz's remarks delusional and accused him of being part of a genocidal government. Communications Director Fahrettin Altun labelled Katz a "bloody genocidal murderer."
Mayor Imamoglu rejected Katz's statements, asserting that Turkey would not learn democracy and law from those with the blood of thousands of children on their hands.
Turkey Blocks NATO Cooperation with Israel Over Gaza Conflict
Turkey has blocked NATO's cooperation with Israel since October due to the ongoing war in Gaza. The sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that Turkey has vetoed all NATO engagement with Israel, including joint meetings and exercises, viewing Israel's actions in Gaza as a breach of NATO's founding principles.
The sources, who requested anonymity, said Turkey will continue to block Israel's interaction with NATO until the conflict ends.
Turkey, Armenia Hold Fifth Round of Talks to Normalize Relations
On July 30, Turkish and Armenian special envoys held their fifth round of negotiations on the Alican-Magara border crossing, according to a joint statement from the Turkish and Armenian foreign ministries.
They agreed to evaluate the technical requirements for reopening the Akyaka-Akhurik border crossing to rail transport and to simplify visa procedures for diplomatic and official passport holders.
The statement also noted that both sides reaffirmed their commitment to pursue normalization without preconditions but did not specify a date for the next round of talks.
Palestinian President to Visit Turkey and Address Parliament
Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas will visit Turkey for two days in mid-August, where he will address Turkish lawmakers in parliament. Fahrettin Altun, Director of Presidential Communications, announced on July 31 that Abbas will meet with President Erdoğan on August 14 and speak before parliament the next day in Ankara.
Over the weekend, President Erdogan criticized Abbas for not responding to the invitation, saying that Abbas should apologize.
The announcement of Abbas's visit coincided with Turkey's strong condemnation of the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in an Israeli airstrike in Tehran on July 31.
Erdoğan called the act "shameful" and said it was meant to sabotage the Palestinian cause and intimidate Palestinians.
Turkey also observed a national day of mourning for the burial in Qatar of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on August 1.
Turkey Coordinates Major Prisoner Swap Including U.S. and Russian Detainees
On August 1, the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT) announced it would coordinate today an extensive prisoner swap. Among the two dozen detainees freed were U.S. Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and ex-U.S. Marine Paul Whelan. The exchange also involved prisoners from the United States, Russia, and several allied countries.
Turkey reported that 10 prisoners, including two minors, were sent to Russia, 13 to Germany, and three to the United States. Poland, Slovenia, Norway, and Belarus also participated in the swap.
"After completing the ratification procedures and health checks, the prisoners were placed on planes bound for their respective countries," MIT said in a statement.
Erdogan Criticizes Olympics Opening Ceremony in Call with Pope Francis
On August 1, Turkish President Erdogan called Pope Francis to criticize the "immoral" Olympics opening ceremony, saying it mocked sacred values and called for a united stance against it.
The Turkish presidency announced that Erdogan told the pope the "immoral shows" during the ceremony had caused an uproar and highlighted the disrespect to religious values, marking an "alarm bell for the moral breakdown the world is being dragged into."
Erdogan said human dignity was being trampled under the guise of freedom of expression and tolerance and that religious and moral values were being mocked, offending both Muslims and Christians, the statement added.
New Ukrainian Navy Warship Launched in İstanbul
A ceremony was held in Istanbul on August 2 to launch a new anti-submarine warship for the Ukrainian Navy. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s First Lady Olena Zelenska, and several other high-ranking officials attended the event at Tuzla Shipyards, according to a statement from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.
Defense Minister Umerov stated that the new warship, equipped with advanced weapons, will enhance the Ukrainian Navy's capabilities against Russia.
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