WEEKLY NEWS BULLETIN ON TURKEY 30 DECEMBER 2024

by instituDE, published on 30 December 2024

ANALYSIS

"Does the Fall of Assad Re-Open Turkey’s Kurdish Pandora’s Box?" by Samuele C. A. Abrami and Riccardo Gasco, War on the Rocks

In Turkey, the Kurdish question historically resembles a Pandora’s box that can be opened, broken, or hidden in different periods by several actors and for multiple reasons. Indeed, Turkish citizens and observers of Turkish politics are accustomed to the cyclical phases of tension and rapprochement in the government’s relationship with the Kurds.

This move [Bahçeli’s recent statements] is likely coordinated with Erdoğan, aiming to present Erdoğan’s administration as open to dialogue while maintaining a pragmatic and tactical distance. In this way, Erdoğan retains the flexibility to step back should public opinion turn against the idea, avoiding the political fallout from previous failed Kurdish outreach attempts and leaving open the possibility of using the state’s “heavy hand.”

Marco Rubio, appointed secretary of state, and Mike Waltz, named as national security advisor, are two figures who could further complicate relations between Ankara and Washington. The former is known for his positions close to the Gülenists, followers of Fethullah Gülen, who recently passed away but is considered the mastermind behind the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey. The latter is recognized for his general anti-Turkey stance and strong support for the Kurdish cause and Kurdish groups in the Middle East. 

"Why is Algeria wary of Turkey's expansion in the African Sahel region?" by Ali Yahi, Independent Turkish Edition

In the face of the "decline" of France's presence, which views the region as its backyard and strategic depth in Africa, concerns are growing about Algeria's opposition to foreign influence in the Sahel.

Algeria's unspoken "concern" is heightened by the military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger advancing their military cooperation with Ankara.

Despite calming and reassuring signals from Ankara and the Sahel countries, military analysts argue that "the overthrow of the Bashar Assad regime a few days ago has revealed Turkey's true intentions."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's statements following the overthrow of the Bashar Assad regime, where he said, "No one can confine Turkey within its borders," have further fueled Algeria's concerns.

POLITICS

DEM Party Delegation Visits Ocalan for Talks on Kurdish Issue

The Justice Ministry approved a request from the DEM Party to visit outlawed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan following a call by Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli. DEM Party representatives announced that the visit would take place over the weekend, depending on weather conditions.

On December 28, DEM Party deputies Pervin Buldan and Sirri Sureyya Onder travelled to Imrali Island and met with Ocalan. The meeting lasted 2 hours.

Ocalan said he is ready to take the necessary steps towards resolving the Kurdish issue, according to a statement from the DEM party on December 29. He was quoted as saying that recent events in Syria and Gaza have made the solution to the Kurdish issue urgent. Ocalan added that the opposition and Parliament should contribute to this new process.

Pervin Buldan, the DEM Party Deputy from Van, said they would seek meetings with political parties after New Year to discuss Ocalan's messages. She also confirmed that they will revisit Ocalan soon, as the authorities have assured them a second meeting with him.

Report claims "Over 500 Signatures Collected for CHP Extraordinary Congress"

Sertaç Es, a writer for Cumhuriyet newspaper, claimed that some people both inside and outside the Republican People's Party (CHP) have been working hard to support former CHP chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu and collected over 500 signatures to hold an extraordinary congress. Es reported that those behind the effort have also begun working to build up the party cadre, including MPs close to Kilicdaroglu and former MPs.

There is also speculation that a new party could be established in the new year if the extraordinary congress is not held in the CHP.

Istanbul Court Cancels Kanal Istanbul Reserve Area Decision

The Istanbul 5th Administrative Court ruled against the "Reserve Area Declaration and Environmental Plan" for the Kanal Istanbul Project, declaring it unlawful and cancelling the decision by majority vote, the daily Cumhuriyet reported.

The court highlighted that the reserve area decision lacked scientific and technical analysis. It also noted that the designated reserve areas include vital regions like forests, agricultural lands, and water basins that require protection, and no detailed examination or report was prepared before the decision.

Opposition Bloc Faces Potential Split 

Independent Ankara MP Mustafa Nedim Yamali, who resigned from the Future Party on December 24, joined the AK Party group meeting in Parliament on December 25. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pinned the AKP badge on Yamali. Speaking at the event, Yamali said, "We will continue to fight in these ranks once again."

With MP Yamali's resignation from the Future Party, the Felicity-Future Party parliamentary group has fallen below 20 members.

The party's leadership is now considering forming an umbrella party that would include DEVA and Future Parties. The new party could also attract independent MPs and possibly some members from the Future Party. Another possibility being discussed is a potential alliance between the Future Party and the New Welfare Party.

Rumours also suggest that some Future Party and DEVA Party MPs might join the AK Party in the coming days.

On December 26, DEVA Party Istanbul MP Mustafa Yeneroglu announced his resignation. In a social media post, Yeneroglu explained his decision, citing the party’s failure to achieve the political communication they had aimed for.

On December 27, the DEVA Party decided to temporarily lend two of its lawmakers to the Felicity Party (SP) to help it maintain its parliamentary group status. DEVA deputies Ertugrul Kaya and Emin Ekmen will join the SP as part of this strategic move.

ECONOMY

Turkey Raises Minimum Wage by 30% for 2025, Hike Sparks Protests 

Turkey increased the minimum wage by 30% for 2025, offering relief to investors seeking concrete actions to tackle high inflation rates.

Labor Minister Vedat Isikhan announced on December 24 that the monthly minimum wage will rise to 22,104 liras ($627) for 2025, up from 17,002 liras, an increase aligned with market expectations. 

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking at the AKP group meeting on December 25, defended the new minimum wage announced the previous day. "We have once again kept our promise not to let workers be crushed by inflation," he said.

Meanwhile, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) announced plans for a rally in Ankara on December 28 to protest the minimum wage set for 2025. 

On December 28, thousands gathered in Ankara to protest the minimum wage increase, demanding a larger hike. Protesters waved opposition and national flags while chanting for the government to resign.

CHP leader Ozgur Ozel criticized President Erdogan's administration, saying it has "lost touch with the realities of Turkey."

Addressing the crowd, Ozel said, "While hundreds of thousands here are calling for your resignation, Mr. Erdogan, you cannot avoid elections. If there's no bread and butter, there should be elections."

On the same day, Erdoğan repeated his belief that "interest rates must go down for inflation to go down." He said 2025 would mark the start of a major rate-cutting plan, calling it a "non-negotiable" part of his government’s economic plan.

Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates for First Time in Two Years 

Turkey’s Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in nearly two years after signs of easing consumer inflation. On December 26, the Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Fatih Karahan, reduced the one-week repo rate from 50% to 47.5%, ending an eight-month pause. 

The bank also tightened the rates corridor to 300 basis points from 600. Officials emphasized that this rate cut doesn’t guarantee further reductions in future meetings, as decisions will depend on inflation data. 

Ministry Denies Reports of Document Requirement for Cash Transactions

The Ministry of Treasury and Finance announced a new rule that requires customers to present official documents showing the source of their money for deposit and withdrawal transactions at banks. From January 1, 2025, bank employees will be required to ask about the source and purpose of money in cash transactions.

However, the Ministry of Treasury and Finance and Financial Crimes Investigation Board (MASAK) later denied these reports and said there would be no requirement for customers to provide documents regarding the source of funds during cash transactions.

Banks Resume Accepting Foreign Currency Banknotes

The Banks Association of Turkey (TBB) announced that the majority of updates to currency counting and verification machines have been completed. 

In a written statement issued on December 28, TBB stated that the updates have been largely completed, and as a result, banks are now accepting foreign currency banknotes again.

Central Bank Unveils 2025 Monetary Policy

The Central Bank of Turkey released its 2025 Monetary Policy, outlining the policies for the upcoming year. The Bank announced plans to reduce the number of rate-setting meetings next year from 12 to eight.

Additionally, the Central Bank confirmed that the Currency Protected Deposit (CCD) application will be discontinued in 2025. The Bank also revealed that the Inflation Report will be published four times a year.

Central Bank Reports Significant Drop in Weekly Reserves 

As of December 20, the bank's gross foreign exchange reserves dropped by $5.787 billion, from $98.175 billion on December 13 to $92.388 billion. 

Additionally, gold reserves fell by $1.501 billion, going from $65.307 billion to $63.806 billion during the same period. 

Overall, the total reserves of the Central Bank decreased by $7.288 billion, moving from $163.482 billion to $156.194 billion for the week ending December 20.

Turkey Commits ₺496 Billion to GAP, Aiming to Boost Jobs and Agriculture by 2028

Turkey's Industry and Technology Minister Mehmet Fatih Kacir announced on December 29 that ₺496 billion ($14.11 billion) will be invested in the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) by 2028, aiming to generate over 570,000 jobs. 

He highlighted that this investment will irrigate 475,000 hectares of land by the same year. "We aim to increase value-added income from dry farming by $1,605, boosting the GAP region's contribution to Turkey’s agricultural gross value added to 19% and its share in crop production to 21.5%," Kacir added.

Baykar Acquires Italy's Aviation Giant Piaggio Aerospace 

Italy’s Ministry of Enterprises and Made in Italy approved the sale of Piaggio Aerospace to Baykar. Italian Minister Adolfo Urso said, “After six years of waiting, we are securing a future for Piaggio Aerospace with long-term production plans, protecting its facilities and workforce.”

Piaggio is a key player in Italy’s defense industry, known for its maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services and contributions to Italy’s technological advancements over the past 140 years.

Saudi Arabia Plans to Purchase 100 Turkish Fighter Jets

Turkey and Saudi Arabia held three days of talks on a major defense industry collaboration, with Saudi plans to purchase 100 Turkish fighter jets. Haluk Gorgun, head of Turkish Defense Industries, hosted a Saudi delegation in Istanbul, including Deputy Defense Minister Khaled bin Hussein al-Biyari and Air Force Commander Turki bin Bandar al-Saud.

Saudi Arabia reportedly aims to acquire 100 KAAN fifth-generation fighter jets from Turkey as part of its strategic plans for the 2030s.

HUMAN RIGHTS

Turkish authorities arrested 93 people over alleged Gülen links

Turkish authorities have detained 93 people over the past 10 days for alleged ties to the Gülen movement, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on Saturday via the social media platform X.

Between June 2023 and June 2024 alone, Turkish authorities carried out a total of 5,543 police operations and arrested 1,595 people linked to the movement.

Amnesty Criticizes Turkey's Crackdown After Journalists' Deaths

Amnesty International has expressed serious concern over Türkiye's suppression of freedom of expression and peaceful assembly following the reported drone strike that killed Kurdish journalists Cihan Bilgin and Nazım Daştan in north-east Syria on December 19.

In response to the incident, Turkish authorities have banned protests, detained participants, and initiated criminal investigations against individuals expressing opinions in statements or on social media.

Hellenic Air Force Students Detained in Istanbul for Raising Greek Flag

Six students from the Hellenic Air Force Academy, including three Greeks and three Cypriots, were detained outside Hagia Sophia in Istanbul on December 21 for raising the Greek flag, according to Greek media.

The students, who were on holiday leave, did not inform their superiors about their plans to travel to Turkey or their intention to raise the flag outside the iconic site.

Turkish authorities detained them briefly and ordered them to leave the country. The students were released and reportedly returned to Greece.

FOREIGN POLICY

Turkish-Born Businessman to Plead Guilty in NYC Mayor Campaign Case

A Turkish-born businessman linked to the criminal case involving New York City Mayor Eric Adams plans to plead guilty to charges of making illegal campaign contributions, federal prosecutors revealed in a court filing.

Prosecutors stated, “Erdan Arkan has indicated that he wishes to plead guilty” in connection with the case.

Turkey's Military Kills 21 Kurdish Militants in Syria and Iraq

Turkey's military killed 21 Kurdish militants in northern Syria and Iraq, according to a statement from the defense ministry on December 25. The ministry reported that 20 militants from the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and Syrian Kurdish YPG, who were preparing to attack, were killed in northern Syria. One militant was also killed in northern Iraq.

On the same day, President Erdoğan stated that Kurdish militants in Syria would either surrender their weapons or "be buried." He told members of his ruling AK Party in Parliament, "The separatist murderers will either bid farewell to their weapons, or they will be buried in Syrian lands along with their weapons."

Turkey to Support Syrian Opposition in Forming Unified Military Force

Turkey plans to assist Syrian groups in forming a unified military force of 300,000 troops within 18 months, with Turkish military advisors leading the effort, the pro-government Turkiye news website reported on December 23. The initiative will start in Idlib and expand to include the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army and other groups in southern Syria. 

Gen. Ahmad Osman, a military representative of Syria’s transitional leadership, stated the first phase aims to establish a core force of 70,000 to 80,000 troops, with Turkish forces stationed at five strategic locations to oversee the process.

Turkey Plans Maritime Agreement with Syria

Turkey plans to negotiate a maritime boundary agreement with Syria in the Mediterranean Sea, Transportation and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu announced.

Speaking in Ankara on December 24, Uraloglu said such an agreement would comply with international law. He noted that progress depends on establishing stable political authority in Syria.

Uraloglu also shared that Turkey is preparing an emergency action plan for Syria, covering air, rail, road, and communication services, with plans to reactivate airports.

Turkey Sends Energy Ministry Delegation to Syria for Electricity Cooperation

A delegation from Turkey's Energy Ministry will visit Syria soon to discuss potential energy cooperation, including supplying electricity to address power shortages, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced on December 23.

Bayraktar told reporters that the delegation would examine Syria's electricity and energy infrastructure during the visit.

Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on December 25 that Turkey is exploring ways to help meet Syria’s electricity needs after years of conflict damaged its infrastructure.

“We are also considering using crude oil and natural gas to support Syria's reconstruction. We plan to share our ideas on how we can contribute with our counterparts,” Bayraktar stated. 

“A team from our energy ministry is on the way to Damascus,” Minister Bayraktar announced on December 28.