ANALYSIS
"Imamoğlu's Presidential Bid and Rising Tensions in Turkey" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Imamoğlu might be disqualified from the presidential race through a political ban. The sheer volume of charges against him may well lay the groundwork for his removal from office, both legally and, just as importantly, psychologically. Unlike many Kurdish mayors or politicians who have faced imprisonment, Imamoğlu might avoid incarceration; however, his fate seems predetermined. His removal will escalate tensions and may undermine any other democratic gains within the country.
While the Kurdish opening would provide a temporary respite, political tension in Turkey will remain high. The frail health of Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the MHP, also presents a concern for the AKP. Given that the MHP is a highly centralized political organization, any change in leadership could have immediate repercussions on the governing coalition.
Imamoğlu and other leaders of the CHP are acutely aware that he might be barred from the presidential race. As a preemptive measure, he declared his candidacy for the presidency. While he might not secure a favorable ruling in the judiciary, his candidacy ensures that the charges against him will be widely perceived as political, shifting the battle to the political arena—the only 'court' where he has a chance to prevail.
"Federal Elections in Germany and Its Effects on Turkey" by Yasir Gokce, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
A tripartite coalition consisting of the CDU/CSU, SPD, and the Greens seems like a possible scenario for forming a stable government and jointly addressing major issues. The effects of the new government on Turkey-Germany relations may be complex.
In a statement made immediately after the elections, CDU/CSU leader Merz expressed his discomfort with Elon Musk's interference in the elections and noted that Europe's defense should gradually become independent from the US. This situation offers clues that Turkey, as a NATO member and an EU candidate, may shape German-Turkish relations around security and adopt a pragmatic, mutually beneficial approach. In this case, issues such as human rights and the rule of law may not be prioritized in bilateral relations, except in situations that directly concern German citizens.
On the other hand, the strengthening of the AfD and left-wing populist parties could push Germany to adopt a harsher stance toward Turkey, making more negative decisions on issues like EU enlargement, immigration policies, and the diaspora.
"One of the world's longest conflicts may be ending", The Economist
For Turkey, a settlement with the PKK is a chance to dismantle or weaken Kurdish autonomy in Syria, and to prevent what policymakers in Ankara see as a fledgling alliance between the Kurdish insurgents and Israel. For the country's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, peace could also hold the key to another term in power.
The PKK's leadership in northern Iraq previously signalled it would abide by Mr. Ocalan's call, though some factions may be opposed. Things are more complicated in Syria, where the SDF has more room for manoeuvre, thanks to backing from America and other Western countries, including France.
There is yet more at play. Mr. Erdogan, whose term as president expires in 2028, cannot run again, unless he can persuade Parliament to amend Turkey's constitution or to call snap elections. Critics suspect he will end up using the fledgling peace process, and possible backing from DEM, to get what he wants.
"Turkey's drones boost Sudanese army against RSF" by Ragip Soylu, Middle East Eye
Turkey supplied several drones to Sudan's army last year, and they have been used to achieve important advances against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in areas such as Khartoum and el-Obeid, multiple sources with knowledge of the matter told Middle East Eye.
Turkey's military aid to the Sudanese army positions Ankara and Egypt against the United Arab Emirates, which backs the RSF. This comes despite Abu Dhabi recently improving its ties with Turkey. However, Ankara does not primarily view its actions in the region as being against the UAE. Instead, Turkey frames its involvement as part of a broader regional strategy aimed at stabilising Sudan.
"Why post-Assad Syria complicates the Iran-Turkey rivalry" by Giorgio Cafiero, The Atlantic Council
With Syria's Iran-allied regime falling late last year and being replaced by a Turkey-oriented political order in Damascus, Syria's fluid dynamics have, at least for now, shifted the Levant's balance of power in Ankara's favor while weakening Tehran's clout. Developments in Syria could complicate Iran-Turkey relations, especially given that Tehran believes Ankara's Syria policies pose a threat to Iranian interests. Turkish policymakers are likely worried about Iranian meddling in Syria that could affect the country's fragile transition in manners that harm Turkey's interests.
Turkey has fears about Iran potentially lending support to the Kurdistan Workers' Party-linked People's Protection Unit (YPG)—the armed group in Syria that Ankara is most concerned about from a security standpoint. Turkish policymakers are also monitoring the situation in Latakia, Tartus, and other parts of western Syria where, in the event of further fragmentation of the country, a breakaway Alawite-led statelet supported by Iran could form, cutting off the new government in Damascus from much of the country's Mediterranean coast.
POLITICS
Ocalan Calls on PKK to Disband, Urges End to Armed Conflict
Jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan on February 27 called for his militant group to lay down arms and disband, saying there was no longer a reason for armed conflict.
A delegation of lawmakers from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party read out his message after visiting him in prison. Ocalan said he was taking "historic" responsibility for this call and thanked President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and MHP leader Devlet Bahceli for their support in achieving peace. He also urged the PKK to hold a congress and formally agree to disarm.
Iraq's foreign ministry called Ocalan's statement a "positive and important step" for regional stability.
Nechirvan Barzani, president of Iraq's Kurdistan region, welcomed the call, while his uncle, KDP leader Masoud Barzani, expressed full support for the peace process.
PUK leader Bafel Talabani also backed Ocalan's message, calling it "responsible and necessary" and urging all sides to take concrete steps toward lasting peace.
White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes called Ocalan's call "a significant development." Referring to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), he said it could reassure Turkey about U.S. partners in Syria and help bring peace to the region.
Mazloum Abdi, commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), said he welcomed the prospect of peace "within Turkey" but noted that Ocalan's recent statement does not bind his group.
On February 28, President Erdogan said Turkey has a historic chance to move toward "destroying the wall of terror." He emphasized that Turkey would closely monitor the peace talks to ensure a successful outcome and warned against any provocations that could derail the process.
The same day, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli made his first statement on X following Ocalan's call, saying, "We are on the threshold of a blessed period where fake discriminations, artificial disagreements, polarization, and misunderstandings will be completely eradicated from our national life."
The PKK Executive Committee announced that it agrees with Ocalan's call and will implement its requirements. The group declared a ceasefire starting on March 1. The PKK also stated that a secure environment must be ensured for holding a congress and insisted that Ocalan should personally lead it.
On March 2, Bengu Turk TV, known for its closeness to the MHP, reported that Bahceli had a phone call with former HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtas, who is being held at Edirne Prison.
Report: AK Party Aims for Majority to Secure Erdogan's Re-Election
Pro-government Turkiye newspaper reported that more deputies from Future, DEVA, and Good Parties are expected to join the AK Party in the coming days.
The newspaper claimed that the real goal is to secure a 360-seat majority in the Parliament, enabling President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to call for early elections and run for another term.
Erdogan and Ozel Clash Over Military Dismissals
CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel has claimed that Lt. Gen. Tevfik Algan, former deputy chief of staff of the Land Forces and chairman of the disciplinary board, was forced out of his position after opposing the expulsion of lieutenants.
On February 25, Ozel accused Generals Bayraktaroglu and Tatlioglu of orchestrating the dismissals and internal power struggles, vowing to hold them accountable if CHP comes to power.
A day later, President Erdogan addressed the issue at his party's expanded provincial chairs meeting on February 26. Defending the two military leaders, Erdogan warned Ozel against criticizing the top brass, saying, "I am addressing you as the commander-in-chief. Watch your step; if you don't, we will ensure you do."
The same day, the Ministry of Defense announced it would sue Ozel, calling his accusations against the military's top commanders unacceptable.
Mayor Yavas: Opposition Must Focus on People's Problems
Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas addressed the ongoing primary election discussions within the CHP, clarifying that he did not oppose the idea but found it premature since no date had been set.
Citing a recent poll, he noted that 38% of voters remain undecided, adding that while some former government supporters have distanced themselves, they hesitate to back the opposition due to a lack of energy. "As mayors, we must focus on people's problems until the election date is set," Yavas emphasized.
CHP's Beykoz Mayor Detained in Early Morning Police Raid
Beykoz Mayor Alaattin Koseler, a member of Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), was detained on February 27 at 4:00 a.m. in a raid by the financial crimes unit of the Istanbul Police Department.
Prosecutors have issued detention and search warrants for 20 others on charges including bid-rigging, forming and participating in a criminal organization, and aiding its activities. Koseler and the other detainees were taken to the Istanbul Police Department for questioning.
CHP officials have strongly condemned the detention, including party leader Ozgur Ozel, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, and CHP Istanbul Provincial Chairman Ozgur Celik.
Future Party's Trabzon Chairman Removed After False Claim About Bahceli's Death
Hasan Kamil Velioglu, the Future Party's Trabzon provincial chairman, was briefly detained and later removed from his position after falsely claiming that MHP leader Devlet Bahceli had died.
On February 27, Velioglu wrote on social media that Bahceli had "passed away some time ago" and that an official announcement was coming. He even offered condolences to MHP members.
Police detained Velioglu but later released him under judicial supervision. Soon after, the Gelecek Party dismissed him, stating he was removed for "spreading false information." Bahceli, 77, recently had heart surgery, sparking widespread speculation about his health. However, MHP officials insist he is recovering.
ECONOMY
Turkey's Economy Grows 3.2% in 2024
Turkey's economy grew 3.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, bringing full-year growth to 3.2%, according to official data released on February 28. The growth surpassed expectations despite the impact of high interest rates.
Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said the economy achieved balanced growth in 2024, with 2.1 percentage points coming from domestic demand and 1.1 points from net foreign demand.
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), fourth-quarter GDP increased by 1.7% compared to the previous quarter, based on seasonally and calendar-adjusted data.
TURK-IS: Hunger and Poverty Line Rises in February
The Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions (TURK-IS) released hunger and poverty line data for February.
A family of four must spend at least 23,324 lira per month on food, known as the hunger line. Their total required income, or the poverty line, has risen to 75,973 lira to cover all basic expenses. A single worker's monthly cost of living has increased to 30,206.24 lira.
Turkey Aims to Maximize Capacity of Iraq-Turkey Oil Pipeline
On March 2, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar stated that Turkey wants the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline to operate fully once oil flows resume through Turkey's Ceyhan.
Bayraktar explained that Turkey plans to direct some of the oil to the Kirikkale refinery and ship it via Ceyhan to other refineries in Turkey or abroad to maximize the pipeline's capacity.
However, on February 28, eight international oil companies in Iraq's Kurdistan region announced they would not resume oil exports through Ceyhan despite Baghdad's announcement of an imminent restart.
Turkey Imposes Export Tax on Eggs to Control Domestic Prices
Turkey has introduced a new export tax to help manage rising domestic prices as bird flu outbreaks impact global supply. Bird flu has particularly affected flocks in the US, which is facing its worst-ever outbreak.
Under the new measure, effective from February 26, exporters will pay the lira equivalent of $0.50 per kilogram. The Trade Ministry said the tax is necessary to protect "consumer welfare" during Ramadan and address growing demand abroad.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Freedom House: Turkey Among Top 10 Countries with Declining Freedoms
Turkey is one of the 10 countries where freedoms have declined the most in the past decade, according to the "Freedom in the World 2025" report by Freedom House, published on February 26.
The US-based watchdog reported that Turkey's score has dropped by 22 points since 2014, ranking it seventh alongside Venezuela among the nations experiencing the worst democratic backsliding. The report continues to classify Turkey as "Not Free."
126 People Arrested in Döner Chain Probe Over Alleged Gulen Links
Turkish courts have arrested 126 people out of 372 detained in a nationwide investigation into a popular doner restaurant chain over alleged ties to the Gulen movement, Turkish media reported.
Authorities initially detained 353 people, but the number later rose to 372 after operations in 32 provinces. Among those arrested are four civil servants. Meanwhile, 156 people were released under judicial supervision.
Dutch Report Highlights Ongoing Crackdown on Alleged Gulen Supporters in Turkey
A new report from the Dutch Ministry of Justice and Security shows that Turkish authorities continue to detain, prosecute, and socially exclude people accused of ties to the Gulen movement.
The report, covering September 2023 to February 20, 2025, updates officials on asylum applications. It notes that while arrests have decreased since the failed coup, the government still actively suppresses the movement.
The report also details the legal challenges and social exclusion that alleged Gulen supporters continue to face.
Turkey Bans Screening of Film Written by Ovacik's Former Mayor
The Turkish Ministry of Culture and Tourism has banned the screening of OY'una Geldik, a film written by Mustafa Sarigul, the former mayor of Ovacik, Tunceli, who was replaced by a trustee. Kazim Oz, the director of award-winning films like Elif Ana and Zer, announced the ban on his X account.
The film's cast includes Tunceli's Pulumur Mayor Muslum Tosun, Pertek Mayor Ruhan Alan, and Sarigul himself. Veteran actor Ilyas Salman plays the lead role.
Turkish Court Suspends Sentence for Journalist Nevşin Mengü
On February 27, a Turkish court sentenced journalist Nevsin Mengu to 15 months in prison for allegedly spreading "terrorist propaganda" in a YouTube interview with Salih Muslim, former leader of the Syrian Kurdish PYD.
The İstanbul 22nd High Criminal Court ruled by a majority vote, suspending the sentence after Mengü was accused of promoting terrorism by airing the interview.
FOREIGN POLICY
Turkey and UK Officials to Discuss Syria's Future in Ankara
Turkish and British officials will meet in Ankara on March 3 to discuss Syria's future, focusing on security, sanctions, and economic development, a Turkish Foreign Ministry source told Reuters. Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Nuh Yilmaz and British junior Foreign Office Minister Hamish Falconer will lead the talks.
Yilmaz will stress the need to lift sanctions on Syria to support rebuilding and urge international backing for Syria's reconciliation efforts. He will also call for action against Israel's violations of Syria's sovereignty, the source said.
Fidan: Russia-Ukraine War Can Be Resolved Through Talks
At a joint press conference in Ankara with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan discussed Turkey's evolving foreign policy and global alliances.
Fidan stated that the Russia-Ukraine war could be resolved through negotiations, while Lavrov said, "We continue to maintain our position, and we are pleased that realistic approaches have emerged."
Regarding BRICS, Fidan confirmed that new member admissions have been suspended. "We haven't received a membership offer, so for now, we will continue observing developments," he said. He highlighted BRICS' diversity, stating, "Unlike the European Union, BRICS has a remarkably inclusive composition, bringing together countries of every color, religion, culture, and civilization."
He also claimed Turkey's EU bid faces reluctance due to its Muslim-majority population, saying, "No one says this outright, but that's the reality."
Fidan Attends Ukraine Meeting in London
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended the Ukraine meeting in London on March 2. He stated that discussions focused on a potential peace agreement ceasefire and how these could be achieved.
He noted that differing views had emerged, mainly due to the recent position taken by the United States. Fidan added that Turkey would closely follow the meetings, which will be held every two or three weeks.
UK Imposes Sanctions on Turkey-Based Company for Aiding Russia
The UK government announced over 100 new sanctions on February 24, targeting those supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine.
The latest sanctions focus on companies and individuals supplying equipment to Russia from third countries, including Turkey, Central Asia, Thailand, India, and China.
Among those sanctioned is Turkey-based MCR GLOBAL Electronics, which supplies electronics to Russia. The company's director, Mutlu Cobanoglu, has also been hit with UK sanctions.
Turkey Open to Sending Troops for Ukraine Peacekeeping Mission
Turkey is open to providing troops for a peacekeeping force in Ukraine, sources told Bloomberg. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed the idea separately with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during meetings in Ankara earlier this month, according to the sources.
Russia has not responded to Turkey's proposal, and a person close to the Russian government said the issue is not an immediate priority.
Turkey insists it must be involved in all discussions and preparations before joining any mission, the sources said. A ceasefire also remains uncertain.
Israel Pushes U.S. to Keep Syria Weak, Supports Russian Bases to Counter Turkey
Israel is urging the U.S. to keep Syria weak and decentralized while allowing Russia to maintain its military bases there to limit Turkey's growing influence, according to four sources familiar with the matter.
Israeli officials warned Washington that Syria's new Islamist rulers, backed by Ankara, could threaten Israel's borders. They shared these concerns during meetings in Washington in February and later discussions in Israel with U.S. Congressional representatives, the sources told Reuters.
To counter Turkey, Israel is trying to convince U.S. officials that Russia should keep its naval base in Tartus and its air base in Latakia, the sources added.
Some U.S. officials were surprised when Israeli representatives spoke positively about Russia's presence, arguing that Turkey, as a NATO member, would be a better ally for Israel's security, two U.S. sources said.
US and Russian Officials Meet in Istanbul to Discuss Embassy Issues
US and Russian officials met in Istanbul on February 27 to discuss ways to resolve embassy-related problems and restore diplomatic ties. The meeting took place at the US consul general's residence.
Both countries aim to restore the normal functioning of their diplomatic missions after expelling embassy staff during former US President Joe Biden's administration.
In a written statement, the US State Department spokesperson said the two sides agreed on the first concrete steps to stabilize their diplomatic missions. They also decided to hold another meeting soon to continue discussions on the same issues.
.svg.png){kind=small}
