ANALYSIS
"The Poverty of Turkish Opposition and Its Obsession with Elections" by Hasim Tekines, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Despite occasional victories and moments of promise, the opposition remains fragmented, timid, and reactive—allowing Erdogan to dictate the political agenda with little resistance. Its singular focus on elections, rather than sustained political struggle, paradoxically weakens and paralyzes it.
Social discontent grows with each passing day. However, in the face of Erdoğan’s power and the opposition’s weakness, this discontent has not yet become an effective force. To transform into such a force, the CHP must prioritize opposition, resistance, and the willingness to challenge Erdoğan’s wrath—accepting the risks and potential consequences—rather than focusing solely on elections.
Erdoğan crossed many lines by undermining the rule of law, the separation of powers, and human rights. In this regard, the CHP's passive stance during these events has certainly come at a cost. Therefore, CHP leaders must now be willing to confront these costs—whether in the form of imprisonment, party closures, financial pressures, or other repercussions.
"What is Turkey's vision for the Kurds in Syria?" by Ragip Soylu, Middle East Eye
Turkish officials, speaking to MEE, believe, with the help of Ocalan’s possible statement, non-PKK elements within the SDF could be easily integrated into the new military administration under Damascus' defence ministry. They also expect US President Donald Trump’s return to office could accelerate the SDF’s reconsideration of its position.
Despite ongoing negotiations, there are indications that Turkey is also preparing for a military solution. Yahya Bostan, a columnist for Yeni Safak with strong ties to Turkish military and intelligence sources, recently wrote that Ankara is intensifying its efforts to eliminate the PKK threat.
"Is Turkey Breaking Its Own Oil Embargo?" by Hannah Lucinda Smith, Foreign Policy
While fully halting oil exports would pose few political costs for Erdogan with regard to Israel, it would be a blow to Turkey’s finances and potentially one of its most important regional relationships—a price it appears that Erdogan is not willing to pay.
The revelations could also create problems for Erdogan internationally, subjecting him to the same accusations of hypocrisy toward Israel that he often levels against Western countries. This could tarnish his reputation in the Muslim world and his attempts to gain leverage over the West in a rapidly shifting Middle East.
"Why Saudi-Turkish collaboration in Syria is more likely than a clash" by Giorgio Cafiero, Amwaj.media
Although Saudi and Turkish policies towards post-Assad Syria appear closely aligned, experts agree that friction could later arise.
“Competition over who wields greater influence in shaping the country’s political and economic structures may surface, especially as both Turkey and Saudi Arabia wish to bolster their roles in post-Assad governance,” Gokhan Ereli, the Gulf Studies Coordinator at the Ankara-based ORSAM think tank, told Amwaj.media.
If Gulf Arab capitals begin to perceive Syria’s new government as a Turkish client state, or an Islamist regime committed to exporting revolution, the Kingdom could begin to view Ankara’s role in post-Assad Syria with suspicion. Under such circumstances, Saudi Arabia might seek to work with other Arab states to pull Syria back to the Arab fold and away from Turkey’s orbit of influence.
POLITICS
Parliament Approves Law Allowing Dismissal of Civil Servants
Parliament approved a new law on January 30, giving the State Supervisory Board (DDK) under the Presidency the power to dismiss civil servants at all levels.
Under the law, a "relevant board member" or "auditor" from the DDK can remove civil servants from their positions in ministries, municipalities, and chambers.
The law passed with the votes of deputies from the People's Alliance, including the AK Party, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and the Great Unity Party (BBP).
Istanbul Mayor Testifies After Criticizing Judiciary
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu testified to prosecutors on January 31 after accusing the government of using the judiciary to target its opponents. A large crowd gathered outside the Istanbul Courthouse to support Imamoglu. In his address to the crowd following his testimony, he called the investigations a “political conspiracy” aimed at removing him from office.
Authorities launched two investigations against Imamoglu this month over his criticism of Istanbul’s chief prosecutor, Akin Gurlek, and expert witness Satilmis Buyukcanayakin. He accused them of acting under government orders to discredit him and other opposition mayors.
A copy of his testimony showed that Imamoglu denied the accusations of threatening, insulting, and attempting to influence a trial. He argued that only those afraid of losing control over the judiciary would consider his remarks threatening.
CHP to Hold Internal Vote for 2028 Presidential Candidate
The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) will let its 1.5 million members vote to choose its presidential candidate for the 2028 election, party leader Ozgur Ozel announced. “We will decide our candidate together with 1.6 million brave hearts,” Ozel said at a parliamentary group meeting on January 28.
Bahceli Speaks on Gezi Investigations, PKK, and Kartalkaya Fire in Party Meeting
MHP Chairman Devlet Bahceli addressed key issues during his party's group meeting at the Parliament on January 28. Commenting on the Gezi Park investigations, Bahceli challenged opponents, saying, "If you have the courage, go out on the streets and let's see."
He also repeated his call to PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, urging, "The call to lay down arms should be made as soon as possible."
Regarding the hotel fire in Kartalkaya, Bahceli criticized Bolu Municipality for trying to politicize the incident. He also faulted the Culture Ministry for avoiding self-criticism and said the governor’s office and provincial administration failed to take responsibility.
Islamist Party Leader Announces 2028 Presidential Candidacy
Fatih Erbakan, leader of the Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP), announced his candidacy for the 2028 presidential election.
Speaking at an event in Ankara on January 31, Erbakan said his party would enter the presidential race with its own candidate, following the expectations of party members and voters.
In the 2023 election, YRP supported President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
DEVA MP Joins CHP, Muharrem Ince, and More Political Figures Set to Join
Selma Aliye Kavaf, who served as family minister in the AKP government from 2009 to 2011, joined the CHP. CHP leader Ozgur Ozel welcomed her to the party by pinning a CHP badge on her jacket during a parliamentary group meeting on January 28. Earlier this month, Kavaf resigned from the DEVA Party.
Journalist Ismail Saymaz claimed that CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel invited Homeland Party leader Muharrem Ince to return to the party. According to Saymaz, Ince has decided to rejoin the CHP and is expected to merge the Homeland Party with the CHP within 10 days.
Cemal Enginyurt and Salih Uzun, former Democrat Party deputies for Istanbul and Izmir, are also set to join the CHP. After meeting with CHP leader Ozgur Ozel, both accepted the offer to join the party. Enginyurt and Uzun are expected to receive CHP badges at the party's group meeting on February 4.
ECONOMY
Turkey's Foreign Trade Deficit Drops by 22.7% in 2024
Turkey's foreign trade deficit was $82.2 billion in 2024, marking a 22.7% decrease compared to the previous year, according to data from the Turkish Statistics Institute (TurkStat) released on January 31.
Exports rose 2.4% year-on-year to $261.9 billion, while imports fell 5% to $344 billion. The export/import coverage ratio improved from 70.6% in 2023 to 76.1% last year.
Germany remained Turkey's largest export market in 2024, with $20.4 billion in exports, followed by the U.S. at $16.35 billion and the UK at $15.3 billion. Imports from China reached $44.9 billion, with Russia following closely at $44 billion.
Turkey’s Tourism Revenue Surpasses $61 Billion in 2024
Turkey’s tourism revenue grew by 8.3 percent last year, reaching over $61.1 billion, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) released on January 31. In the fourth quarter, tourism revenue rose 14.5 percent, totaling $13.79 billion.
Of the total revenue, $60.5 billion came from visitors to Turkey, while $606 million was earned from passengers who passed through Turkey as a transit country.
The number of visitors to Turkey increased by 9 percent compared to 2023, with 62.2 million people traveling last year.
Syria to Lower Tariffs on 269 Turkish Imports
Trade Minister Omer Bolat announced on January 27 that the interim Syrian government has decided to reduce tariffs on 269 Turkish imports after backlash over its recent decision to standardize tariffs. The recent tariffs had raised duties on Turkish products by up to 500 percent.
Bolat explained that his ministry sent a team from the customs and international agreements unit to Damascus. Following negotiations with Syria’s ministries of economy, customs, and trade, an agreement was reached to lower tariffs on certain Turkish products.
“Starting this week, Syria has decided to reduce tariffs on 269 Turkish imports, including eggs, flour, corn, milk, certain iron and steel products, and hygiene products, which make up a significant portion of our exports to Syria,” the minister said.
Fitch Keeps Turkey's Credit Rating at 'BB-' with Stable Outlook
Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings kept Turkey's credit rating unchanged at 'BB-' with a stable outlook. Fitch also forecasted that the country's average annual inflation will lower to 32.8 percent in 2025.
Parliament Approves 15.75% Increase in Minimum Retirement Salary
The Parliament approved a bill raising the minimum retirement salary from 12,500 lira to 14,469 lira. The change brings a 15.75% increase for retirees.
Turkey Raises Withholding Tax on Deposits and Funds to Boost Budget
Turkey has increased the withholding tax on deposits and investment funds to support its budget, which could also make lira assets less attractive.
According to a presidential decree published on February 1, the tax on deposits with up to six months’ maturity rose from 10% to 15%. The tax increased from 7.5% to 12% for deposits of six months to one year. Meanwhile, Deposits held for more than a year now face a 10% tax, up from 5%.
The tax on investment funds, except stock-intensive ones, also jumped to 15%.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkey Leads in Pending ECHR Cases in 2024
The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) announced its 2024 statistics during a press conference on January 31. Once again, Turkey had the highest number of cases awaiting a decision.
Turkey led the list with around 21,613 pending applications, followed by Russia with about 8,150 and Ukraine with approximately 7,700. The ECHR has 60,350 pending cases, with applications against Turkey making up 35.8% of the total.
In 2024, the ECHR resolved 10,829 applications through 1,102 decisions. Of these, 73 decisions involved Turkey. The ECHR found violations in 67 cases, ruled no violations in 5, and resolved one case through mutual agreement.
Siirt Co-Mayor Sentenced to Prison, Trustee Appointed to Municipality
Sofya Alagas, the co-mayor of Siirt Municipality, was sentenced to 6 years and 3 months in prison by the Diyarbakir 5th High Criminal Court on January 29. The court convicted her of "being a member of a terrorist organization," a charge stemming from her time as a journalist.
Following the verdict, the Interior Ministry appointed Governor Kemal Kizilkaya as a trustee to oversee the municipality. This decision brings the total number of DEM Party municipalities with appointed trustees to 8 since March 31.
Halk TV Editor-in-Chief Arrested Amid Media Investigation
Journalist Baris Pehlivan met with Satilmis Buyukcanayakin, an expert witness, mentioned by CHP Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu during a press conference on January 27. Following the meeting, an audio recording of their conversation was aired on Halk TV.
On January 29, Halk TV Editor-in-Chief Suat Toktas, program coordinator Kursad Oguz, Managing Director Serhan Asker, journalists Seda Selek and Baris Pehlivan were detained as part of an "expert panel investigation." The court later released Asker and Selek under probation and a travel ban. The next day, Toktas was arrested, while Pehlivan and Oguz were released on probation.
Turkey’s media watchdog, RTUK, fined Halk TV for broadcasting the phone call between Pehlivan and expert witness Buyukcanayakin. RTUK said the broadcast violated broadcasting standards and issued the highest possible fine - 3 percent of the network’s revenue from last month.
Turkish Academic Arrested Over Social Media Post
Turkish academic and journalist Cigdem Bayraktar Or was arrested by an Istanbul court on January 31 after being detained on January 29 for allegedly “insulting the president” and “insulting a public official.”
Before her detention, Or posted a lengthy tweet on X criticizing the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its leaders. She accused them of corruption, incompetence, and suppression. She also called President Erdogan unqualified for office and described his government as unjust and negligent.
Turkey Dismisses Officers Over Secularist Slogan at Military Graduation
Turkey’s Ministry of Defense announced on January 31 that five newly commissioned lieutenants and three commanding officers have been dismissed from the Turkish Armed Forces.
The decision followed an investigation into their involvement in organizing an unofficial oath ceremony during the August 30 graduation at the Turkish Military Academy. The officers, including valedictorian Ebru Eroglu, led cadets in raising their swords and chanting, “We are Mustafa Kemal’s soldiers,” referencing Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic.
The High Disciplinary Board ruled that the actions violated military discipline. The Ministry of Defense stated the dismissals were necessary “to maintain established discipline” and emphasized that “any act or incident contrary to discipline will not be tolerated.”
FOREIGN POLICY
WSJ: Russia and Turkey Secretly Move Billions to Avoid Sanctions
After invading Ukraine, Russia sent over $5 billion to Turkey, using the nuclear project between the two countries in 2022 to bypass U.S. sanctions, the Wall Street Journal reported. Russia and Turkey arranged for Gazprombank, an unsanctioned Russian bank, to lend $9 billion to a nuclear plant project run by Rosatom, and the Bank of Russia secretly funded the loan.
Turkey used the funds to stabilize its currency, while Russia aimed to create an offshore dollar reserve. The plan worked initially, with billions routed through major banks like Citi and JPMorgan. However, after detecting the transactions, the U.S. Justice Department froze a $2 billion payment. Investigations suggest that Turkish officials, including intelligence director Ibrahim Kalin and former finance minister Nureddin Nebati, were involved in these payments.
The Justice Department is now deciding whether to revive the case, which could affect relations with Turkey under the Trump administration.
Erdogan Hosts Hamas Delegation in First Post-Ceasefire Meeting
On January 29, President Erdogan hosted Hamas Shura Council Chairman Mohammad Darwish and a Hamas delegation at the presidential complex, marking the first visit since the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas took effect. The meeting was also attended by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, MIT Director Ibrahim Kalin, and Communications Director Fahrettin Altun.
Erdogan expressed Turkey's hope for successfully completing the second and third stages of the ceasefire agreement.
Turkey to Accept 15 Palestinians Released in Israel-Hamas Deal
Turkey has agreed to take in around 15 of the 70 Palestinians recently released and deported to Egypt as part of a hostage-ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas on January 19, the two officials told the Times of Israel. The decision on where to send the released convicts was made in coordination with Israel. Qatar is expected to accept the remaining 55 individuals.
Israel insisted that Palestinians convicted of crimes such as murder not be allowed to return to Gaza or the West Bank. Egypt agreed to temporarily host them before their relocation to other countries.
Israel Claims Iran and Turkey Involved in Funding Hezbollah
The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel has complained to the U.S.-led committee overseeing the Lebanon ceasefire, alleging that Iranian diplomats and others are delivering tens of millions of dollars in cash to Hezbollah. A U.S. defense official and sources familiar with the complaint confirmed the report.
According to Israel, Iranian envoys have been flying from Tehran to Beirut with suitcases full of U.S. dollars. Israel also claimed that Turkish citizens were transporting money from Istanbul to Beirut by air.
The ceasefire committee, which does not rule on alleged violations, has passed Israel’s complaints to the Lebanese government.
Turkish officials denied involvement, stating that airport security would have detected large cash movements. They also noted that no third party has raised concerns with Turkey about such transactions.
Israeli Airstrike Kills Three Turks Crossing from Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed three Turkish citizens who tried to cross illegally from Lebanon into Israel, Turkey's foreign ministry announced on January 29.
"We strongly condemn this unlawful attack that caused the deaths of our citizens," the ministry said in a statement. The ministry added that efforts are underway to bring their bodies back to Turkey.
Turkey Seeks $6 Billion Defense Deal with Saudi Arabia
Turkey aims to secure a $6 billion defense deal with Saudi Arabia, which could include the sale of warships, tanks, and missiles, Bloomberg reported, citing Turkish officials.
Officials said the deal may also involve Saudi Arabia joining Turkey’s jet-building project and could be finalized during President Erdogan’s expected visit to the country in March.
Ankara hopes to sell its Altay main battle tank and missile defense systems to Saudi Arabia as part of the agreement. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is set to visit Saudi Arabia this week and is expected to discuss the deal, the officials added.
Turkey Awaits Price Proposal for Eurofighter Jets Acquisition
Turkey is waiting for a price proposal for the possible purchase of Eurofighter jets after submitting a list of technical requirements to Britain’s defense ministry and relevant company, a source from the Turkish Defense Ministry revealed on January 30.
"We expect the price offer to arrive in the coming days," the source said.
According to the French newspaper La Tribune, Ankara wants to buy Eurofighter Typhoon jets only if they come with Meteor missiles. France has the power to veto the sale of these missiles.
Greece strongly opposes Turkey getting both the Meteor missiles and Eurofighter jets. Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias asked the French ambassador to explain the situation, the Greek newspaper Kathimerini reported.
UK to Require Visas for Turkish Diplomatic Passport Holders
Turkey’s presidential communications office announced on January 31 that starting March 11, 2025, Turkish diplomatic passport holders will need a visa to enter the UK. The office claimed the rule is part of a broader UK policy affecting all countries.
Only ministers on official visits will be exempt after that date. However, accredited diplomats and embassy staff will still be exempt under international agreements.
Armenian PM Pashinyan's 1915 Remarks Spark Controversy
Speaking at a gathering with the Swiss Armenian community in Zurich on January 25, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called for a re-examination of the history of the Armenian Genocide. He stated, "We must understand what happened, why it happened, how we perceive it, and through whom we perceive it."
Pashinyan also questioned why the Armenian Genocide agenda did not exist in 1939 but emerged in the 1950s. He emphasized the need to address these issues, saying, "These are fundamental questions we must understand to solve these problems. We must understand our history and identity."
His remarks, widely covered in the Armenian press, have sparked discussions about historical narratives in political parties.
French Navy Seizes 9 Tons of Cocaine on Ship from Istanbul
On January 10, the French navy stopped the Halic-Equality ship off the coast of Martinique Island. The ship had departed from Istanbul, and during the operation, authorities seized 9 tons of cocaine worth an estimated $3 billion. Reports claimed that the ship belonged to a Turkish shipowner named H.B.T.
However, the Directorate of Communications under the Presidency denied this claim, stating that the incident had no connection to Turkey. According to its statement, the ship was not Turkish but a Tanzanian-flagged vessel sold to a Panamanian company on November 7, 2024.
Greek Authorities Arrest Turkish Man with Weapons on Boat
Greek authorities arrested a Turkish man after discovering dozens of firearms and other weapons on his boat. The man fell ill and lost control of the vessel outside the port of Alexandroupolis, Associated Press reported on January 30.
Officers found 61 firearms, including handguns, pistols, and automatic rifles, along with silencers and nearly 3,000 rounds of ammunition, some of which were military-grade.
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