ANALYSIS
"Urban market fires heighten political tensions in Iraqi Kurdistan" by Mehmet Alaca, Amwaj.media
Following a string of alleged arsons at urban markets in the Kurdistan Region, Iraqi officials have announced the arrests of three suspected culprits. Interior ministry representatives claim that two of the accused are members of Sulaimaniyah-based entities linked to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and trained by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
The accusations against the PKK will likely be welcomed in Ankara, which has been pushing Baghdad to take a firmer stance on the armed group. Reflecting these dynamics, a Turkish politician familiar with the matter told Amwaj.media that “Baghdad has belatedly realized that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party is a threat to itself, too.”
The source further claimed that “unless Baghdad takes drastic measures on this issue, the PKK will pose a serious threat to major projects such as the Development Road.”
Speaking to Amwaj.media, an Iraqi Kurdish researcher close to the KDP claimed that the PUK's “intemperance” has undermined its legitimacy and further weakened the semi-autonomous region’s negotiating position vis-a-vis Baghdad. The researcher further suggested that as Ankara, Baghdad, and Erbil come closer to agreement on the PKK, the PUK will likely be forced to re-evaluate its stance on the group.
Baghdad is also likely unwilling to sacrifice any of its political capital—and its growing alignment with Turkey on the “Development Road” transit project—to in any way shield the PKK within its borders.
Hanging responsibility for the alleged arson campaign on the PKK—with the added bonus of alluding to PUK culpability—may help Baghdad convince Ankara of its willingness to play ball on Kurdish issues. On the other hand, increased tension between KDP and PUK in the leadup to the upcoming Kurdistan Parliament elections may only risk stoking a deeper regional crisis.
"Is Erdogan looking forward to a Trump presidency?" by Ragip Soylu, Middle East Eye
In May, seven months into the devastating war on Gaza, Erdogan cancelled his first visit to Washington in nearly five years, snubbing Biden after having initially requested the meeting in the first.
Polls suggested that Erdogan’s main voter base felt aggrieved by the country’s Gaza policy, with even members of his own government believing that the AKP’s much broader Israel-Palestine policy was poorly conveyed to the public.
Erdogan weighed up the pros and cons of such a visit and realised that since the trip wouldn’t end with a landmark deal he might as well stay at home.
But, as many have also suggested, there many have been another factor: Donald J. Trump.
By May of this year, the calculation in Ankara was that Trump was edging closer to victory and an aging Biden wouldn’t stand a chance. Erdogan, and many in his inner circle, may be of the opinion that Trump will be a better ally and someone they can better communicate with. It should also be noted that Erdogan likes to make deals, and so does Trump, with both sides eager to sign agreements on deepening trade and energy cooperation.
At present, the prevailing perception in Ankara is that despite everything that happened between 2016-2020, they now know how to deal with Trump. And, it shouldn’t be lost on anyone that Erdogan is a political risk taker.
POLITICS
MHP Leader Accuses CHP of Threatening National Security
On July 23, Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accused the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) of threatening Turkey’s national security and working with separatist elements.
Bahçeli claimed that the CHP is collaborating with the pro-Kurdish Democracy and Progress Party (DEM), which he said poses a danger to national security and criticized the CHP’s position on Kurdish issues.
At the press conference, Bahçeli also revealed a list of 154 people he accused of defaming the MHP over the murder of former Grey Wolves leader Ateş. The list includes politicians, journalists, legal experts, academics, and Bahçeli vowed to take legal action against them.
The Turkish Journalists Association (TGC) condemned the targeting of journalists on Bahçeli’s list, stating, “The truth cannot be hidden. The perpetrators of the murders are not journalists.”
Erdogan Targets Opposition Municipalities Over Unpaid Debts
Speaking at a meeting of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) on July 24, President Erdogan announced that the finance ministry is working on a plan to collect debts owed by municipalities.
Erdogan accused opposition mayors of not fulfilling their election promises and criticized them for raising water rates and not improving pensioners' welfare. He suggested opposition-run municipalities could assist pensioners by paying off their accumulated debt to the Social Security Institution (SGK).
Following Erdogan's remarks, Labor Minister Vedat Isikhan stated that all municipalities, regardless of party affiliation, have been informed of their debt amounts to the SGK, which totals 96 billion lira.
CHP leader Ozgur Ozel accused Erdogan of trying to stage a "financial coup" against opposition municipalities, pointing out that AKP-controlled municipalities had also not paid their debts to the SGK. Ozel also threatened to organize rallies if Erdogan proceeds with this plan.
Additionally, CHP deputy group chairman Ali Mahir Basarir said the debts of some municipalities have accumulated over the years under AKP mayors. Basarir criticized the timing, questioning why the debts were not collected when AKP mayors were in power.
Good Party Faces Another Resignation, Down to 32 Seats in Turkish Parliament
The nationalist opposition Good Party now has 32 seats in the Turkish Parliament following the resignation of another lawmaker on July 24. In total, 11 lawmakers have resigned from the party, mainly due to internal divisions and challenges following its defeat in the March local elections.
The latest resignation came from Istanbul lawmaker Nimet Ozdemir, who announced her departure on X, citing that she no longer feels a part of the party where she began her political career.
Ozdemir said she would continue her political activities in parliament and work hard for the voters who elected her. She did not specify whether she would join another party or serve as an independent deputy.
Turkey's National Security Council Emphasizes Need to Combat Terrorism in Syria
Turkey’s National Security Council (MGK), led by President Erdogan, met on July 25 and issued a nine-point statement after the meeting stressing the importance of eliminating "separatist terrorism" from Syrian territories to ensure the country's stability and integrity.
The statement highlighted that enhanced counterterrorism efforts, with regional cooperation, would support the territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria. The MGK also emphasized the need for a "comprehensive societal consensus" in Syria and stated that removing separatist terrorism would primarily benefit Syria's security and interests.
ECONOMY
Turkey’s Central Bank Maintains Key Interest Rate at 50%
On July 23, Turkey’s central bank maintained its key interest rate at 50 percent for the fourth consecutive month.
The bank’s monetary policy committee said it would keep the policy rate unchanged but would continue to monitor inflation risks closely.
Simsek: Financial Markets Normalizing, TCMB Swap Stock Drops Significantly
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek announced on his X account on July 23 that the financial markets are normalizing due to the economic program they have been implementing.
Simsek highlighted that the Central Bank of Turkey's (TCMB) swap stock with domestic banks has significantly decreased from its peak of $64.5 billion in 2023 to $144 million.
He also noted that this improvement would contribute significantly to the disinflation process.
Turkey Returns $5 Billion Deposit to Saudi Arabia
Turkey's central bank returned a $5 billion deposit to Saudi Arabia, signaling progress in replenishing its foreign currency reserves. The deposit, initially agreed upon with the Saudi Fund for Development in March 2023, was terminated by mutual agreement, the central bank announced on July 24.
The bank also noted that external liabilities have improved by about $7 billion by reducing the deposit balance.
Deputy Governor Says Central Bank Not Considering Rate Cuts
At this time, Turkey's central bank is not considering a rate-cutting cycle, as easing too early could reignite inflation and prolong the economic pain, Deputy Governor Cevdet Akcay said on July 26.
Akcay emphasized that the bank is focused on maintaining a tight policy to ensure a lasting period of disinflation. He stated, "A rate cut is not currently on the agenda and won't be considered until we see a consistent decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation, along with other key indicators."
He also noted that unexpected changes in the monthly inflation rate would not prompt immediate action as long as the overall outlook remains stable.
Turkey Unveils $30 Billion Incentive Package for High-Tech Sectors
Turkey plans to launch a $5 billion package to boost annual electric vehicle production to one million cars, President Tayyip Erdogan announced on July 26. Erdogan also revealed that additional incentive packages totaling $30 billion for high-tech areas will be unveiled.
Speaking in Istanbul, Erdogan also revealed plans for a $5 billion investment to establish a semiconductor chip factory. Additionally, Turkey aims to become a regional production hub for batteries, with a goal of reaching 80 gigawatt hours by 2030, supported by a $4.5 billion incentive package, Erdogan said.
He added that the government will also provide $2.5 billion in grants for solar cell facilities with up to 15 GW capacity and has allocated $1.7 billion for manufacturing critical components in wind energy.
Erdogan also highlighted that these incentives aim to attract at least $20 billion in private sector investments, with more details to be announced soon.
EBRD Vice President Praises Turkey's Economic Progress
EBRD Vice President Matteo Patrone told Reuters on July 26 that Turkey's economic turnaround is showing positive results. The Vice President said the bank aims to match its record investment in the country this year.
Patrone, who met with Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek and other officials during his visit to Turkey, praised the economic program and the combined efforts of monetary and fiscal policies. He also noted strong support from the business community.
Regarding the possibility of President Tayyip Erdogan changing his economic policies, Patrone said there was no alternative.
"From our conversations, there is cautious optimism that this economic plan will be completed because there is no alternative, and we have started seeing results," he said.
Patrone added that investor interest is returning, both from portfolio investors and foreign direct investments.
Turkey Forgives $227 Million in Tax Debts for Pro-Government Companies, Opposition MP Claims
Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has written off TL 7.5 billion ($227 million) in tax debts and penalties, mainly benefiting wealthy, pro-government companies, according to opposition lawmaker Cevdet Akay of the Republican People’s Party (CHP).
Akay, citing data from the Turkish Revenue Administration, revealed that over the last decade, the government forgave TL 2.5 billion in tax debts and TL 4.9 billion in unpaid penalties.
Akay also highlighted that TL 2.2 trillion in taxes will be waived in 2024 due to various exceptions, exemptions, and deductions. This amount includes TL 657 billion in corporate taxes forgiven for 44 companies involved in public-private partnerships (PPP) and build-operate-transfer (BOT) projects, which Akay claims are pro-government companies.
HUMAN RIGHTS
UN Committee Urges Turkey to Address Torture Allegations
On July 26, the UN Committee Against Torture released its findings on Turkey, expressing concerns about ongoing reports of torture and ill-treatment in Turkey, including beatings and sexual assault by law enforcement officers.
The Committee urged Turkey to promptly and impartially investigate all allegations of torture and ill-treatment and ensure that those guilty are appropriately punished.
It also recommended ensuring the judiciary's full independence and effectiveness and avoiding interference in the self-governance of professional lawyers' associations.
Lastly, the Committee suggested that Turkey consider abolishing aggravated life imprisonment.
FOREIGN POLICY
Erdogan Criticizes US Congress and Netanyahu, Vows Action Against Israel
On July 27, at a meeting with civil society organizations and sector representatives in Rize, President Erdogan criticized the U.S. Congress for applauding Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. "Rolling out the red carpet for someone like Netanyahu and applauding his lies until their hands swell is a great eclipse of reason for America," Erdogan said.
Erdogan also addressed calls from some political parties to invite Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to Turkey to speak in parliament. "Who said we didn't invite him? Abbas chose not to come despite our invitation. He owes us an apology. Whether he comes or not, we continue to speak up for the Palestinian people at every opportunity."
On July 28, at another gathering with party officials in Rize, Erdogan also responded to a New Welfare Party MP's call to invite Mahmoud Abbas to speak in parliament, saying that Turkey had already invited Abbas but received no positive response.
New Welfare Party Deputy Chairman and Istanbul MP Dogan Bekin had suggested inviting both Mahmoud Abbas and US Representative Rashida Tlaib as guests of honor to speak in the parliament.
Erdogan also remarked that if Turkey were stronger, Israel would not be able to act against Palestine as it does. He vowed that Turkey would take decisive action against Israel, similar to its military actions in Karabakh and Libya.
Reports Conflict on Erdogan-Assad Meeting in August
Turkey's Daily Sabah newspaper reported that Turkish President Erdogan might meet Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in August in Moscow, with Russian President Vladimir Putin acting as a mediator.
However, a Turkish diplomatic source told journalists on July 22 that there are no confirmed plans for such a meeting in August.
However, the pro-government daily Turkiye claimed that Erdogan and Assad are set to meet in August, with the intelligence agencies of both countries working out the details.
The newspaper reported that the meeting is expected to occur no later than August, with potential locations including Iraq or a border crossing between Turkey and Syria.
Turkey Open to Unconditional Dialogue with Syria and to Visit Cairo, Fidan Says
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced in an interview with Sky News Arabia on July 24 that Turkey is ready to engage in unconditional dialogue with Syria. Fidan noted that setting preconditions would be counterproductive. He stressed the importance of open discussions, including at the presidential level, to address ongoing issues between the two countries.
Fidan also revealed plans to visit Cairo in early August to prepare for Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's upcoming visit to Ankara. He said he would meet with his new Egyptian counterpart to finalize the details for the meeting between President Erdogan and Sisi.
Additionally, Fidan stated that Turkey is in contact with Khalifa Haftar, the Libyan National Army (LNA) commander, and his sons. The minister highlighted the need for cooperation with regional players such as Egypt, the UAE, and Qatar to achieve lasting peace and stability in Libya.
Turkey Increases Pressure on PUK Leader Bafel Talabani Over PKK Ties
Turkey is ramping up pressure on Bafel Talabani, chairman of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), over his alleged cooperation with Kurdish armed groups deemed terrorists by Ankara, Turkish sources told Middle East Eye.
A Turkish source revealed that senior PKK members have been present and received training in Sulaymaniyah despite public pressure on Talabani. Turkish security sources also warned Talabani of "operational consequences" if he does not cut ties with the PKK.
According to the sources, messages are being conveyed to Talabani through indirect talks via intelligence channels and Qubad Talabani, the deputy prime minister of the KRG. The sources added that Talabani's requests for direct meetings with Turkish officials have been denied due to his alleged connections with the PKK.
Greek Health Minister Claims F-35 Jets Could Strike Turkey "One Night"
Greek Health Minister Adonis Georgiadis made provocative statements about Greece’s military power, suggesting that the country’s F-35 fighter jets could strike Turkey “one night.”
In an interview on Greek television, Georgiadis highlighted Greece’s strengthened alliances with the US and France and its upgraded military assets, including F-35 and F-16 fighter jets and frigates. He said, “With F-35s, we could reach Turkey one night. One night, you might suddenly find them in Ankara.”
Somaliland Opposes Turkish Naval Deployment in Its Waters
Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland warned on July 24 against any Turkish naval forces operating in its maritime zones. The warning came ahead of a Turkish parliament vote that could authorize sending naval forces to Somalia’s coast.
Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but lacks international recognition, issued a statement rejecting the potential deployment. The statement called any such action a serious violation of international law and Somaliland’s sovereign rights.
Germany Joins School Crisis Following France
Following France, Germany has also joined the 'school crisis.' Due to a directive from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ankara Ernst Reuter School announced that it would not accept Turkish students in the new academic year.
In a statement, the school said, "The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a note prohibiting the Ernst Reuter School in Ankara from accepting new students with Turkish passports, including kindergarten, in the 2024/2025 academic year."
The German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported that the Turkish government's decision impacted two other German-run schools in Istanbul and Izmir.
The newspaper claimed that Turkey's controversial move is based on the principle of "reciprocity," as the German Foreign Ministry has not permitted the Turkish government to open schools in Berlin, Cologne, and Frankfurt am Main.
Education Minister Yusuf Tekin stated that 12 foreign-operated schools, including Ernst-Reuter, were not legally compliant with Turkish regulations. "These schools are not recognized in our legislation. They must comply with our regulations, or they will be deemed invalid," Tekin said. He emphasized the need for international agreements to legitimize the schools.
The French Embassy in Ankara earlier revealed that the Turkish Ministry of National Education had proposed an agreement regarding French schools in Turkey, warning that Turkish students would not be admitted if the deal was not signed.
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