ANALYSIS
"How will the Trump administration’s protectionist policies impact Turkish-American relations?" Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS)
Yasar Aydin, CATS
Turkey’s exports to the US are highly diverse, but they represent only a small share of total US imports. However, Trump is likely to weaponise economic pressure, including tariffs, against Turkey if he disagrees with Ankara on issues such as developments in Syria or Turkey’s relations with Israel.
Hanns-Günther Hilpert, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP)
Although Turkey is not one of Trump’s most irritating trading partners, there is no reason why he would spare Turkey unless it is offered some attractive trade, diplomatic or military concession in return. In addition, Trump could require Turkey and all Turkish companies to comply with strict coercive trade measures against Russia, China and Iran.
Kemal Kirisci, Brookings
Turkey is unlikely to become a priority target for Trump’s tariff policies and may potentially be spared tariff hikes. However, this will largely depend on the state of political relations between the two countries.
Cagdas Ungor, CATS
In this new political environment, Ankara may find little maneuvering space between Beijing and Washington. Therefore, Turkey’s desire to join the BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization may draw increasing levels of hostility from Washington.
"How Turkey plans to expand its influence in the new Syria", The Economist
No country has as much to gain from a stable Syria as Turkey, and few have as much to lose if it implodes.
With Syria’s new government committed to unifying the country, Turkey’s occupation of northern Syria could be harder to sustain—or justify.
Turkey is unlikely to withdraw its troops soon, nor has the new Syrian government asked it to do so. HTS, however, is talking to YPG about folding them into Syria’s new army. It does not want a war with the Kurds. Ahmed al-Sharaa, the head of HTS and Syria’s de facto leader, has asked Turkey for time to integrate the YPG.
"Intra-Kurdish engagement stepped up as Turkey’s allies dominate new Syria", Amwaj.media
Two of the most important Kurdish leaders in Iraq and Syria have met in an attempt to forge a unified front among Syrian Kurds following the fall of Bashar Al-Assad. The landmark meeting between Masoud Barzani and Mazloum Abdi raises hopes that Syrian Kurdish parties will achieve a better negotiating position with the new Sunni Islamist authorities in Damascus.
The intra-Kurdish engagement is playing out as Turkey reevaluates its relations with its own Kurds. Ankara’s new strategy is likely designed to cultivate Kurdish support for constitutional changes that will allow Erdogan to seek another term. Even amid the tentative steps towards talks with the PKK, Turkey and the SNA remain active militarily and opposed to any autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria.
"There’s a path forward for Turkey-Greece cooperation—but it requires a dose of realism", by Harry Tzimitras, The Atlantic Council
Turkey and Greece’s default mode until today has been one of postponement, waiting for a comprehensive solution of bilateral disputes in the hope that after such a solution, all other matters of disagreement would somehow be settled. If Turkey and Greece stick to this mode, that may never happen, and opportunities will continue to be missed—and calamities will remain difficult to avoid.
Turkey and Greece should realize that many of their problems lie in the past, but any solutions lie in the future and in their synergies. Instead of resorting to inaction in the hopes of some future conflict resolution, they should actively seize opportunities and deal immediately with problems that, while the subject of disagreement, are not such long-standing disputes.
POLITICS
DEM Party Delegation Meets with Ocalan for Second Time
The DEM Party delegation met with Abdullah Ocalan, the outlawed PKK leader, on January 22 after receiving approval from the Ministry of Justice. The meeting lasted about four hours.
On January 23, the delegation postponed its planned statement three times before eventually sharing an information note. In the note, they stated, "Ocalan's work on the process continues. Necessary statements will be shared with the public once preparations are complete. We will continue our work and contacts as a delegation and provide updates as developments occur."
Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu Faces Multiple Investigations
Turkish authorities launched an investigation into Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on January 20 over alleged “threatening” remarks about Istanbul Chief Prosecutor Akin Gurlek and his family. Gurlek previously served as deputy justice minister in Erdogan’s government.
The investigation followed Imamoglu’s criticism of Gurlek for the brief detention of Cem Aydin, CHP Youth Branch President, calling it an act of intimidation.
“Attorney General, we will remove the mind that governs you from the minds of this nation even to save your children from such treatments.”, Imamoglu said on January 20.
Imamoglu denied that his words were meant as a threat in a post on X.
Former CHP deputy and journalist Baris Yarkadas claimed that Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu is now facing 10 investigations.
Yarkadas stated that a confidentiality order has been placed on the files and revealed that 50 employees of IETT, the municipality's bus operator, have testified about Imamoglu so far.
He added that he spoke with Imamoglu's lawyer, Mehmet Pehlivan, who confirmed that the investigations were launched one after another in 2024.
Victory Party Leader Arrested for Inciting Hatred
Umit Ozdag, leader of the far-right Victory Party, was arrested on January 21 on charges of "inciting people to hatred and hostility" due to incidents regarding refugees in Kayseri last year after being detained for insulting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The Istanbul Chief Prosecutor’s Office launched an investigation into Ozdag’s remarks during a party meeting on January 19.
Ozdag was detained, taken to the Istanbul Courthouse, and gave his statement to the prosecutor. He was then brought before the criminal court of peace, where he was formally arrested on the charges.
Ayse Barim Arrested Over Alleged Involvement in Gezi Park Protests
Ayse Barim, known for managing several top figures in the Turkish film and TV industry, was arrested on January 25 in connection with the 2013 Gezi Park protests.
The arrest follows an investigation sparked by media reports accusing Barim of monopolizing the entertainment industry. She now faces allegations of being one of the key figures behind the protests, separate from an earlier investigation regarding her involvement in controlling the television industry.
The Istanbul Public Prosecutor’s Office released a statement following her arrest, claiming Barim played a key role in encouraging artists to participate in the protests. Barim had extensive communications with prominent figures involved in the Gezi Park protests, including Mehmet Osman Kavala, Cigdem Mater Utku, and Memet Ali Alabora, the statement added.
Turkey Declares National Mourning After Deadly Hotel Fire
Turkey declared a national day of mourning after a tragic hotel fire in Bolu province claimed 79 lives and injured 51 others.
President Erdogan announced the decision on January 21 following a Cabinet meeting, expressing sorrow over the devastating incident.
The fire broke out early on January 21 at a hotel in the Kartalkaya ski resort in northern Turkey. Fifteen people were arrested, including business owner Halit Ergul, the company's general manager Emir Aras, Deputy Mayor Sedat Gulener and Deputy Fire Chief Kenan Coskun.
CHP Leader Accuses Government of Manipulating Expert Panel Report on Hotel Fire
CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel accused the government of pressuring the expert panel to alter their report on the hotel fire in Bolu to fit its narrative. He claimed the government pushed the panel to exclude the culture and environment ministries from responsibility and instead blame Bolu Municipality.
In response to criticism from the opposition, President Erdogan criticized the opposition, saying, "It is not right to play politics during such a tragic event. Instead of respecting the nation’s pain, they have spent three days making reckless attacks."
CHP Youth Leader Cem Aydin Detained, Released with Travel Ban
CHP Youth Branch President Cem Aydin was detained on January 20 over his posts about Istanbul Chief Prosecutor Akin Gurlek.
Party lawyer Gokhan Isik Ulutas confirmed that Aydin's detention was linked to his comments about Gurlek.
Aydin was brought before a judge with a request for judicial control and was later released with a travel ban.
Ankara MP Zorlu Joins AK Party
Ankara MP Kursat Zorlu, who recently left the Good Party, joined the AK Party.
President Erdogan presented Zorlu with his party badge during a parliamentary group meeting on January 21.
Later, speaking at the AK Party Ankara Provincial Congress, Zorlu thanked Erdogan and said, "I promise we will work harder with determination, without resting during the day and sleeping at night."
Good Party's Konya MP Karaman Resigns
Good Party Konya MP Unal Karaman resigned from his party on January 20. He announced his decision on social media platform X. With Karaman's resignation, the party's seat count in Parliament dropped to 28.
National Security Council Updates Red Book
The National Security Council (MGK) met on January 22 in Bestepe, chaired by President Erdogan.
After the 3.5-hour meeting, a statement announced that the "National Security Policy Document," also known as the "Red Book," was updated to address current and future developments in Turkey, the region, and the world. The council approved the revised document.
Omer Rasim Sisman Elected Deputy Mayor of Besiktas
After the arrest of Besiktas Mayor Riza Akpolat, the municipal council elected a new deputy mayor on January 23. Omer Rasim Sisman was chosen as the Deputy Mayor of Besiktas Municipality during a vote held by the council.
ECONOMY
BYD Secures Customs and Service Point Exemptions
Ismail Ergun, General Manager of BYD Turkey, revealed that the company is exempt from all customs duties and the requirement for the distributor to open 20 service points. BYD, the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, signed an investment agreement with the Ministry of Industry and Technology on July 8.
Ergun explained that BYD Global reached an agreement with the relevant ministries regarding exemptions, but they are not yet aware of all the exemptions included in the deal. But he confirmed that these two primary exemptions are currently in effect.
Turkey and Syria to Reevaluate Customs Tariffs and Resume Trade Talks
Turkey and Syria agreed to review customs tariffs on certain products and discussed economic and trade relations during meetings in Damascus, the Turkish Trade Ministry announced on January 24.
Officials from both countries also decided to begin negotiations to reinstate the free trade agreement, suspended in 2011 when the war in Syria started, the ministry added.
Turkey's Central Bank Lowers Interest Rate to 45%
Turkey's central bank reduced its key interest rate by 250 basis points to 45% on January 23, continuing the rate-cutting cycle it started last month.
The bank signaled further rate cuts in the coming months, noting a temporary rise in January inflation driven by services. However, it highlighted that core inflation remains relatively low, with domestic demand at "disinflationary levels."
Turkey's Wealth Fund Eyes Minority Stake in Turkcell
Turkey's sovereign wealth fund (TWF) is considering purchasing the 19.8% stake in Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS held by LetterOne Holdings SA, partially owned by sanctioned Russian billionaires Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven, Bloomberg reported.
TWF, the largest shareholder in Turkcell, has approached LetterOne to discuss a potential deal, according to sources familiar with the matter. However, it remains unclear if LetterOne is willing to sell its stake in Turkey's largest wireless carrier by market value.
Sources familiar with the matter stated that discussions are still in the early stages, and there is no certainty that an agreement will be reached.
TOBB Reports Decline in New Companies and Increase in Closures for 2024
The Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB) shared data on company formations and closures for 2024. The number of new companies established dropped by 10.2 percent, totaling 115,463, while company closures rose by 21.4 percent, reaching 31,416.
HUMAN RIGHTS
A Women Journalist Arrested, Bringing Total to 14 in One Month
Journalist Eylem Babayigit, detained on January 22 as part of an investigation by the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office, was referred to the Istanbul Courthouse after security procedures.
The prosecutor’s office referred her to the Criminal Court of Peace on Duty, requesting her arrest on charges of "membership in an organization." On January 24, the court ordered her arrest, bringing the total number of journalists arrested in the past month to 14.
Babayigit's lawyers requested the judge's recusal, noting that the same court had previously ordered the arrest of 13 other journalists. However, the request was denied.
Other journalists arrested on January 20 in the same investigation include Necla Demir, Rahime Karvar, Ahmet Gunes, Welat Ekin, Vedat Oruc, and Reyhan Hacioglu, all charged with "membership of a terrorist organization."
34 Arrested in Operation Targeting Socialist Groups
In an operation targeting members of the Socialist Party of the Oppressed (ESP), Socialist Women's Assemblies (SKM), and Socialist Youth Associations Federation (SGDF), 41 people were detained. Three of them were released, while 38 were referred to the court for arrest without giving statements to the prosecutor's office.
Thirty-four were arrested, including ESP Co-Chair Hatice Deniz Aktas, SKM Spokesperson Tanya Kara, and SGDF Co-Chair Berfin Polat, on charges of "membership in an organization" and "making propaganda for an organization." Four others were released on probation.
71 Detained in Ongoing Operations Against Gulen Movement
The government's operations against the Gulen Movement continue unabated. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on January 24 that 71 people were detained in operations against the Gulen Movement across 23 provinces last week.
Lawyer Firat Epozdemir Arrested in PKK/KCK Investigation
Istanbul Bar Association Board Member Firat Epozdemir was arrested as part of an investigation by the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office into the PKK/KCK.
Epozdemir was detained at Istanbul Airport on January 23 upon his return from Strasbourg. Prosecutors claim they found evidence in archived records linking him to the Peoples' Democratic Congress (HDK). After being referred to court, the judge ordered his arrest.
FOREIGN POLICY
Syria's Leader Ahmed al-Sharaa Reveals Call with Erdogan
On January 23, Syria's de-facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa revealed during an interview that Turkish President Erdogan had congratulated him on his victory last month during a phone call after the collapse of former president Bashar al-Assad's government. This is the first time Sharaa has publicly acknowledged direct contact with a head of state.
Al-Sharaa praised Turkey's "moral stance" on Syria, highlighting its consistent support over the years, and expressed gratitude to Ankara.
When asked if his administration would support Turkey if it took military action against the SDF and what steps Syria could take to address Turkey’s security concerns, al-Sharaa stated that the Syrian government does not view such a military operation as "appropriate" at this time. Instead, he emphasized the importance of talks with Syrian Kurds to find a solution.
He also announced plans to visit Turkey and Saudi Arabia as his first official trips.
Turkish Intelligence Chief Meets Syrian Leader in Damascus
National Intelligence Organization head Ibrahim Kalin met with Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of Syria's new administration, in Damascus. Syrian Foreign Minister Esaad Hasan Seybani and General Intelligence Director Enes Hattab also attended the meeting.
Turkey Reopens Aleppo Consulate After 12 Years
Turkey’s Consulate General in Aleppo reopened on January 20, ending a 12-year closure caused by the ongoing conflict in Syria.
The consulate, which had stopped its services in July 2012 due to escalating violence, officially resumed operations with a flag-raising ceremony with the participation of Burhan Koroglu, Temporary Chargé d'Affaires of the Turkish Embassy in Damascus.
Mansour Barzani Meets Turkish Defense Minister in Ankara
Mansour Barzani, son of Masoud Barzani and commander of the KDP’s Barzan and Gulan special forces, met with Turkey's Defense Minister Yasar Guler in Ankara on January 23.
This meeting marks a significant milestone, as it is the first time a Turkish Defense Minister has publicly received a Peshmerga commander from the Barzani family. The ministry called Mansour "the commander of Peshmerga special forces."
Discussions likely focused on PKK-related issues and potential Turkish military support, including training and technical assistance for KDP Peshmerga forces.
Fidan Calls for Joint Fight Against ISIS and PKK During Iraq Visit
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, during his visit to Baghdad on January 26, emphasized the need for a joint effort to eliminate both Islamic State and Kurdish militants in the region.
Speaking alongside Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, Fidan urged Iraq to officially designate the PKK as a terrorist organization, building on its recognition as a "banned organization" last year. Fidan said they also discussed cooperation on intelligence and operations involving regional countries to combat Islamic State threats.
Fuad Hussein had earlier warned on January 23 that Turkey's attacks on Kurdish forces in northern Syria could increase tensions and lead to more refugees.
Minister Fidan also held meetings with key figures in Iraq and was received by Iraq's President Abdul Latif Rashid and Prime Minister Muhammad Shia' al-Sudani. The discussions mainly centered on the PKK and Syria.
According to Kurdistan Watch, some Iraqi sources claim that Iraq is positioning itself as a mediator between Turkey, the SDF, and the newly established government in Damascus. Unconfirmed reports suggest that SDF commander Mazloum Abdi may visit Baghdad as part of these potential mediation efforts.
Fidan Meets EU High Representative in Ankara
Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan met with Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President of the European Commission in Ankara, on January 24. They discussed topics including Syria, Turkey-EU relations, Ukraine, and Gaza.
Before the meeting, Kallas shared a post on his X account, stating, "Turkey is a strategic partner for the EU, and there are good opportunities to deepen our cooperation."
During his visit to Ankara, Kallas also met with Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus.
Turkish Jet Cocaine Case: Prosecutor Seeks 67.5-Year Sentence for Two Defendants
The prosecutor announced his opinion on the 1.3 tons of cocaine found in 24 suitcases aboard a jet owned by Turkey-based ACM Airlines at Fortaleza Airport, Brazil, on August 4, 2021.
He requested a 67.5-year prison sentence for the company owner, Seyhmus Ozkan, and the pilot, Veli Demir, for “manufacturing and trading narcotics or stimulants.” The prosecutor also sought the acquittal of six other defendants, citing insufficient evidence.
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