ANALYSIS
"Turkey Pins Hopes on Trump to Resolve S-400 Feud and Buy F-35s" by Selcan Hacaoglu, Bloomberg
After waiting years for action from President Joe Biden, Turkey is pinning its hopes on President-elect Donald Trump to free it from sanctions over its use of a Russian air defense system.
As Trump prepares to take office in January, Turkey is communicating to people close to him that it might agree to restricted use of the Russian S-400 missiles without jettisoning them, according to people familiar with the proposal who asked not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the information.
Resolving the spat over the Russian S-400 missiles, which Turkey has test-fired, could lead to an unprecedented increase in defense-industry cooperation between the longtime allies, Turkish and US officials have said privately.
Another bone of contention is the US arming and training of Kurdish forces in Syria. In an attempt to resolve that issue, Turkey has proposed to Washington that its army, the second-largest in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization after the US, could take over the fight against Islamic State in Syria if the US pulls out its troops and ceases military support to the Kurdish forces, according to the people familiar with the discussions. They added that Turkey was also prepared to take over the responsibility for tens of thousands of Islamic State jihadists and their relatives detained by Kurdish forces.
"Why Emerging Powers Are Welcoming Trump’s Victory" by Christopher S. Chivvis and Beatrix Geaghan-Breiner, Foreign Policy
Other emerging powers have expressed optimism about future relations. These positive reactions contrast with Trump’s reception in many other parts of the world, including much of Europe, where leaders have long expressed concerns about his return. This was foreshadowed in an Economist poll before the election, which found that unlike most Europeans, a plurality of citizens in Argentina, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey wanted Trump to win.
These leaders may be hoping for a special relationship with Trump, after learning from his first term that he places a high value on personal connections. Ideological affinity may also play a role—many of these leaders are strongmen and perhaps see something of themselves in Trump’s style. But there are probably deeper reasons, as well.
One is that emerging powers likely expect that Trump will not push them on democracy, social issues, and human rights. Trump’s focus on economics and his transactional approach to foreign policy is attractive to many of these nations, especially those with poor human rights records.
"What's behind the claims Hamas is moving to Turkey?" by Ragip Soylu, Middle East Eye
Bilgehan Ozturk, a regional expert at the Ankara-based think tank SETA, believes it is no coincidence that these Israeli reports coincide with the re-election of Donald Trump and the announcement of his highly pro-Israel cabinet.
Ozturk suggested to Middle East Eye that the timing of these reports could be an attempt to counterbalance the positive rapport between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Trump by portraying Turkey as the main sponsor of Hamas.
Turkey, in response, may be seeking ways to shield itself from such pressure. This week, Israeli news outlet Walla reported that Ronen Bar, head of Israel's domestic intelligence agency Shin Bet, secretly travelled to Turkey on Saturday to meet with Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin.
The source did suggest, however, that by leaking details of the meeting between Turkish and Israeli intelligence at a time of heightened scrutiny over Hamas’s presence in Turkey, Ankara may be emphasizing its unique position: it can simultaneously host Hamas leaders and Israeli intelligence officials within the same week.
POLITICS
Three Kurdish Mayors Sentenced to Prison on Terrorism Charges
Turkish courts have sentenced three Kurdish mayors to prison in separate terrorism-related trials.
Mehmet Siddik Akis, the ousted co-mayor of Hakkari, received nine years for “committing crimes on behalf of a terrorist organization” and violating public demonstration laws. He had already been sentenced to 19 years and six months in a separate case for “leading an armed terrorist organization.”
Cevdet Konak, mayor of Tunceli, and Mustafa Sarigul, mayor of Ovacik in Tunceli province, were each sentenced to six years and three months in prison for alleged membership in the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Konak is a member of the DEM Party, Turkey’s pro-Kurdish party, while Sarigul is affiliated with the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP).
The Turkish interior ministry announced on November 22 that it had removed two mayors after their convictions for “terrorism. " The government replaced both mayors with state-appointed administrators.
Ten political parties in the Parliament have submitted a joint bill to end the trustee system in municipalities. The bill was introduced by the Republican People's Party (CHP), DEM Party, Good Party, Future Party, Felicity Party, and DEVA Party, which are represented in the Parliament.
The proposal, also backed by unrepresented parties such as the New Welfare Party, the Turkish Workers' Party, the Labor Party, and the Democrat Party, argues that the trustee system is unconstitutional and calls for its removal.
Turkish Intelligence Chief Briefs CHP on Security Threats
Turkish Intelligence (MIT) Director Ibrahim Kalin visited CHP Headquarters on November 20 for a three-hour briefing. The meeting, attended by CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel and some Central Executive Board (MYK) members, focused on security issues and safeguarding against terrorist infiltration.
During a TV program, Ozel revealed that the CHP sought Turkish Intelligence's support to prevent terrorist groups from infiltrating the party through membership applications, particularly from overseas offices. The session included detailed briefings on terrorist organizations delivered by three experts, with Kalin offering additional analysis, Ozel said.
Three MHP Lawmakers Resign Amid Gold Smuggling Allegations
Three lawmakers from Turkey’s far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) have resigned following allegations of involvement in gold smuggling from the United Arab Emirates to Turkey.
MHP Deputy Chairman Semih Yalcin announced on November 20 that Isparta MP Hasan Basri Sonmez, Bolu MP Ismail Akgul, and Kilis MP Mustafa Demir were asked to resign as part of an internal party investigation, and their resignation letters have been accepted.
With their departure, MHP’s parliamentary seats decreased from 50 to 47. While Yalcin did not specify the exact accusations, reports suggest the MPs are accused of exploiting their privileges to import gold at lower prices from Dubai and receiving commissions.
Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc told reporters on November 21 that there is no ongoing judicial investigation into the former lawmakers.
DEVA Party Leader Criticizes Erdogan's COP29 Delegation for Wasteful Spending
Ali Babacan, leader of the opposition Democracy and Progress (DEVA) Party, has criticized President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for bringing an entourage of 1,860 people to the COP29 climate summit in Baku, which took place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to November 22. Babacan called it an example of wasteful government spending.
He pointed out that while the summit was meant to focus on environmental issues and sustainability, Erdogan’s delegation included 1,860 people, including government officials and specially invited members of Parliament, which he described as a clear display of waste.
Babacan also noted that Evrim Rizvanoglu, a DEVA Party deputy, was excluded from the delegation despite offering to cover her expenses.
Kilicdaroglu Faces Trial for Calling Erdogan a “Thief”
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, former leader of Turkey's main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), appeared in court on November 22, facing charges of insulting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan by calling him a “thief.” At the hearing, Kilicdaroglu was supported by prominent opposition figures, including Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, Victory Party Chairman Umit Ozdag and Muharrem Ince, leader of the Homeland Party.
Kilicdaroglu faces up to 11 years, eight months in prison and a potential political ban due to his remarks made after the 2013 corruption probes, known as the December 17-25 investigations.
Kilicdaroglu defended himself by criticizing Erdogan’s government, accusing it of corruption, authoritarianism, and economic mismanagement. He stated, "I am not here because of any crime I committed, but to document the crimes committed."
PKK Leader Ocalan Faces New 6-Month Ban on Lawyer Visits
Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the outlawed PKK, has been given a new 6-month ban on meeting with his lawyers, starting from November 6.
Ocalan’s lawyers were unable to learn the reasons for the ban. The Bursa High Criminal Court rejected their objection to the decision. The lawyers plan to appeal the ruling to the Constitutional Court.
Mahmut Arikan Elected as Felicity Party Chairman
The Felicity Party held its 9th Regular Grand Congress on November 24, where Deputy Chairman and Kayseri MP Mahmut Arikan was elected as the new general chairman with 823 delegate votes.
Arikan, who had secured 741 delegate signatures to run, competed against Party Spokesperson and Istanbul MP Birol Aydin, who received 221 signatures. Former Chairman Mustafa Kamalak, with 36 initial delegate votes, did not run in the leadership contest.
ECONOMY
Simsek: $70 Billion Spent on Earthquakes as Personnel Costs Dominate Turkey's Budget
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek told the Parliamentary Planning and Budget Committee that the government aims to lower the budget deficit to 3.1% of national income by 2025. He predicted a gradual economic recovery starting in the second half of 2025, with 2026 and beyond expected to be a period of stability.
Simsek also highlighted ongoing public spending challenges, noting that, based on average exchange rates, nearly $70 billion will have been allocated to earthquake recovery over two years. He emphasized that even in stable economies, spending 6% of national income on disaster relief limits fiscal flexibility.
He also stated that 41.6% of budget expenditures are allocated to personnel costs and social security-related premium transfers.
Turkey Implements New Export Procedures to Enforce Israel Trade Ban
Turkey's government has instructed one of the country’s leading export associations to help enforce a ban on trade with Israel. The Trade Ministry has asked the Central Anatolian Exporters' Association to introduce additional checks and approvals for shipments, including verification with Palestinian authorities, Reuters reported.
The new system, which began in mid-October, caused an initial backlog, according to sources familiar with the matter. Under the updated instructions, the export association now serves as the main approval body, confirming receipt of information about the proposed export and ensuring Palestinian authority approval before granting final export permission. While the system is currently operational, sources say it is slower than before due to the added checks.
Turkey Plans IPOs for State-Owned Energy Companies
Turkey plans to offer state-owned energy companies through initial public offerings (IPOs) to strengthen their structures, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced on November 18. The goal is to modernize these companies and ensure public offerings benefit Turkish citizens and small investors, Bayraktar said.
He also emphasized that the government does not intend to privatize the companies, and no stakes will be sold to a private entity or consortium. Legal amendments are required to proceed with the IPOs, and the government will seek parliamentary approval for the changes, the minister added.
Turkey's Bayraktar TB3 Drone Successfully Lands on Navy Ship
Turkey's leading drone manufacturer, Baykar, announced on November 19 that its Bayraktar TB3 has become the first unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) to successfully take off and land on the Turkish Navy’s flagship, TCG Anadolu. The indigenous Bayraktar TB3 UAV completed a 46-minute test flight at sea before landing on the short-deck ship without any landing support equipment, the company reported.
Central Bank Keeps Interest Rates Steady at 50% in November
The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee announced on November 21 that it would maintain the policy rate at 50%, in line with market expectations, marking the eighth consecutive time it has kept rates unchanged.
The decision noted that high food inflation remains a concern and highlighted continued risks from inflation expectations and pricing behaviours, although there are signs of improvement in the disinflation process.
US-based investment bank Morgan Stanley has revised its interest rate cut expectation from January to December following the Central Bank's recent decision. In a report to clients, economist Hande Kucuk pointed out that the Central Bank's softer tone indicates it is preparing to begin rate cuts in line with declining inflation.
Turkey's Cash Economy Struggles as Inflation Drives Demand for Larger Banknotes
Turkey’s high inflation is pushing the limits of its cash-based economy, with the country’s largest banknotes becoming increasingly inadequate for daily transactions, Bloomberg reported. The 200-lira note, worth about $5.80, now accounts for more than 80% of cash in circulation, up from just 16% in 2010, according to central bank data.
Some bank branches are filling their teller machines up to three times a day due to the high volume of cash, and ATMs are expected to stop dispensing bills below 100 Turkish Lira. "There’s 100% a need for larger bills," said Fibabanka CEO Omer Mert, noting that ATMs are breaking down due to the high volume of lower-denomination notes.
Company Closures Surge by 21.2% to 21,230 in 10 months
The Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB) reported that 10,808 new companies were established in Turkey in October. However, the number of company closures continues to rise, with 2,440 companies shut down in October, marking a 13.2% increase from September's 2,156 closures.
In January-October 2024, the number of new companies fell by 12.2% compared to last year, reaching 92,712. Meanwhile, company closures increased by 21.2% during this period, totalling 21,230.
Erdogan Pledges to Shield Workers as Minimum Wage Hike Looms
When asked about the expected minimum wage increase set for January 1, President Erdogan referenced the central bank's year-end inflation forecast of 44%, assuring that Turkey will not let inflation burden its citizens.
Erdogan pointed to past wage hikes that exceeded inflation rates and suggested that the government would take a similar approach for 2025.
Kazakh Fintech Giant Acquires Hepsiburada for $1.127 Billion
The Turkish Competition Authority approved the sale of the e-commerce platform Hepsiburada to Kazakh fintech holding Kaspi.kz for $1.127 billion, making the company the controlling shareholder.
Kaspi.kz confirmed last month that it acquired a 65.41% stake in Hepsiburada after signing a deal with Hanzade Dogan, the platform’s founder and former controlling shareholder, along with other members of the Dogan family.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkey Detains 459 Alleged Members of Gulen Movement in Nationwide Operations
Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on November 19 that 459 individuals with alleged ties to the Gulen movement were detained in operations conducted across 66 provinces.
Journalist Sevinc Ozarslan claimed on social media that most of the detainees were elderly or young. She also alleged that while women were among those detained, videos released avoided showing women, particularly those wearing headscarves, to prevent backlash from the ruling party’s conservative voter base.
“Case of The Minor Girls” Highlights Deep Flaws in Turkey's Judicial System
The interim monitoring report by the Italian Federation for Human Rights on the “Case of The Minor Girls,” held at the Istanbul 24th Heavy Penal Court from September 23–27, 2024, sheds light on deep-rooted issues in Turkey's judicial system. The trial involves 41 defendants, including minors, facing charges of alleged membership in an armed terrorist organization.
Key findings of the report reveal severe procedural flaws, such as reliance on unsubstantiated evidence, coercion of minor witnesses, and violations of defendants’ rights. Minors, some as young as 13, were reportedly detained without legal representation, coerced into providing false testimony, and threatened with separation from their families. Observers noted biased questioning by judges and inadequate courtroom conditions that hindered the defense.
The report calls for international scrutiny, judicial reforms, and adherence to human rights protocols to restore fairness and independence in Turkey's legal system.
Top Court Overturns Passport Ban Provision
Turkey’s Constitutional Court has annulled a provision in the Passport Law that prevented individuals from obtaining passports if the Ministry of Interior determined their departure from the country posed a security risk.
The ruling, published in the Official Gazette on November 21, stated that such a restriction violated the right to freedom of movement, as it should be subject to a judge’s ruling, not administrative authority.
This ruling is expected to lift the passport bans on 87,062 individuals imposed by the Ministry of Interior in 2022.
AKUT Founder Mahruki Arrested Over Social Media Post
Nasuh Mahruki, founder and former president of the Turkish Search and Rescue Association (AKUT), was arrested pending trial as part of an investigation due to his social media post. The İstanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office opened an investigation into Mahruki for allegedly spreading misleading information and insulting judicial authorities in his posts.
On November 12, Mahruki posted a message warning the public, claiming, “The government and the YSK are setting up one last scheme to steal the elections.” He added that unless monitored, votes would be stolen, replaced with fakes, and the election unlawfully won, which he argued could lead to the downfall of the Republic of Turkey.
FOREIGN POLICY
Erdogan and Putin Discuss Trade and Regional Peace in Phone Call
President Erdogan had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on November 24 to discuss bilateral ties and regional issues, according to a statement from Turkey's Communications Directorate. During the call, Erdogan highlighted Turkey's commitment to boosting trade with Russia and stressed ongoing efforts to ease regional tensions and support peace initiatives, the statement said.
Kremlin Rejects Erdogan's Peace Plan for Ukraine Conflict
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied media reports about a peace plan proposed by Turkish President Erdogan to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Peskov said the idea of freezing the conflict along the current frontlines is "unacceptable" to Russia. He also denied that Russian President Putin and Erdogan had discussed the plan, stating, "We have no information on this matter." Turkish Foreign Ministry sources also denied claims, stating that Ankara has not proposed postponing Ukraine’s NATO membership, the pro-government news website Daily Sabah reported.
Bloomberg reported that Erdogan planned to present his peace proposal at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro. The plan reportedly suggests freezing the conflict and postponing Ukraine's NATO membership talks for at least 10 years as a concession to Russia.
US Warns Turkey Over Hosting Hamas Leaders as New Sanctions Target Officials in Turkey
Washington warned Turkey, a NATO partner, against harbouring Hamas political leaders after they reportedly left Qatar over the past week, Elizabeth Hagedorn reports from Washington.
A State Department spokesperson did not dispute the reports that Hamas' leadership had relocated from Qatar to Turkey, adding that the United States does not believe “the leaders of a vicious terrorist organization should be living comfortably anywhere" and said they should be handed over to the US government.
An Arab diplomat with knowledge of the situation said Hamas leaders had relocated to Turkey “as they usually do when there are no talks.” Journalist Ragip Soylu reported that Turkey denies that Hamas has relocated its headquarters to Istanbul. According to Turkish diplomatic sources, Hamas members have come to Turkey from time to time for years.
Meanwhile, on November 19, the US Treasury Department announced new sanctions on six senior Hamas officials involved in fundraising and weapons smuggling activities for the group. Among those targeted were Abd al-Rahman Ismail Abd al-Rahman Ghanimat, a longtime member of Hamas's military wing, and two other Hamas officials, Musa Daud Muhammad Akari and Salama Mari, all of whom are based in Turkey, the Treasury said.
Israeli and Turkish Intelligence Chiefs Hold Secret Talks in Ankara
Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s domestic intelligence agency Shin Bet, held a secret meeting with Turkey’s intelligence chief İbrahim Kalin in Ankara over the weekend, Israeli media reported on November 18.
The talks reportedly centered on the situation of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and Turkey's potential role in helping secure their release. Bar’s visit aimed to resume talks on a possible prisoner exchange with Hamas, with Turkey being considered a potential supporter, albeit not as the primary mediator, the local media said.
Erdogan Calls US Approval for Ukraine to Use Long-Range Missiles a "Big Mistake"
Turkish President Erdogan criticized Washington’s decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range American missiles, the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), against military targets in Russia, calling it a "big mistake" that could push the world closer to a major war.
Speaking to journalists on November 20 on his flight back from the G20 summit in Rio, Erdogan said the US action could be seen as an effort to fuel the war and prevent it from ending. He warned that the move could escalate the conflict and lead to a stronger reaction from Russia.
Turkey Prepares to Resume KRG Oil Exports After Pipeline Suspension
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced progress on restarting oil exports from the Kurdistan Region, stating, "We have good news regarding the resumption of [KRG] oil exports, and we expect positive developments soon."
Speaking at Turkey's parliamentary budget and planning committee, Fidan confirmed that preparations are complete for reopening the pipeline to the Ceyhan port. Turkey halted KRG oil exports on March 25, 2023, following a $1.5 billion fine imposed by the International Court of Arbitration in Paris.
NATO Chief to Visit Ankara for High-Level Talks
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte will visit Ankara on November 25 for meetings with Turkish leaders, the alliance announced on November 22. During his first official visit to Ankara as NATO chief, Rutte will meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and Defense Minister Yasar Guler. He will also hold talks with representatives of Turkey’s defense industry and tour the facilities of Turkish Aerospace Industries.
Erdogan will discuss the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war with Rutte, a Turkish official told Reuters. They will also discuss the removal of defence procurement obstacles between NATO allies and the military alliance's joint fight against terrorism, the source added.
Erdoğan Praises ICC's Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant
President Erdoğan praised the International Criminal Court's (ICC) decision to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former defense minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif. Speaking in Istanbul on November 23, Erdoğan called the ICC's decision "courageous" and emphasized the importance of its enforcement to restore trust in the international system.
Australia and Turkey Clash Over Hosting 2026 UN Climate Summit
Australia and Turkey are in a standoff over hosting the United Nations climate change conference in 2026, with neither side willing to step down from their bid.
This week, the rivalry, which has been going on since 2022, escalated at the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. Australia's climate minister visited Turkey on November 15, seeking a deal to support Australia's bid. However, Turkish officials refused to withdraw, Reuters reported.
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