ANALYSIS
"All Quiet on the Syrian Front Until Trump’s Re-election" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
On June 15, President Assad announced that he would only meet Erdoğan if the core issues between Ankara and Damascus were addressed. Assad emphasized, "What is the basis for the meeting? Would it be ending the reasons for the problem, which are supporting terrorism and withdrawing from Syrian lands? ... This is the core of the problem." Assad’s reference to supporting terrorism primarily pertains to Turkey’s ongoing support for the Syrian insurgents.
The Turkish government has no intention of complying with Damascus's demands. Nonetheless, as evident in the remarks of Assad, Damascus labels the presence of the Turkish troops in Syria as occupation and stipulates their withdrawal as a prerequisite for normalization.
It seems that the sides mainly agree on the principle that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria pose a fatal threat to them. Syria seeks to reclaim its lost territory, while the Turkish security apparatus fears that an independent Kurdish entity could set a precedent for the region.
Erdoğan’s efforts to normalize Turkey’s relations with Syria might be partially related to enhancing a 30 km deep buffer zone on its southern borders. Some unverified reports suggest that Ankara and Damascus have made certain progress in coordinating an offensive on the eastern front. The parties are allegedly negotiating the modus operandi and timing of a military operation.
Should Ankara and Damascus manage to temporarily set aside their core differences—an unlikely prospect—a coordinated effort to reverse the gains of the SDF could ensue. The US stance against normalizing relations with the Assad regime also complicates matters A new Trump administration, however, will most likely have diminished interest in Syria, as in Ukraine. If Trump were re-elected in November, which will probably be the case, Erdoğan might find greater maneuvering room in eastern Syria.
"Why Turkey is doing a U-turn on Syria" by Kamal Alam, Middle East Eye
If, according to the definitive modern warfare adage, “war is nothing but the continuation of policy with other means”, then Turkey’s “war” in Syria is nothing short of a spectacular defeat.
From Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s now-infamous quip that he would soon be praying in the historic Umayyad Mosque in Damascus in 2012, to his repeated vows to remove the “killer” Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, he is now desperately trying to reset ties.
Erdogan has indicated that he wants Assad to visit Turkey, noting that “our families were close” in the past and could be again. This is a U-turn of enormous proportions, even for Erdogan, given his other course changes with regards to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
There are also questions in Damascus around what the purpose of all this was; what did Turkey get from supporting a war that ended up destabilising Turkey itself? There are reports that the very rebels Turkey supported are now burning the Turkish flag. Was has the war accomplished?
After 13 long years, it appears likely that we will see some sort of major shift in Turkish policy towards Syria. While defence and intelligence officials have met in recent years, a meeting between Assad and Erdogan or Ozel would be a game changer - and a final nail in the coffin of Ankara’s policy to oust Assad.
POLITICS
Former Interior Minister Dismisses Rumors of Leaving AKP to Form New Party
Suleyman Soylu, former interior minister and current Justice and Development Party (AK Party) lawmaker, denied rumors of plans to resign from the party and start a new party after a meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the presidential palace in Ankara.
Soylu called the idea of challenging Erdogan's leadership "political madness." Speaking to Oda TV, Soylu emphasized his loyalty to Erdogan and the party, stating that he would continue his struggle within the ranks of the AKP.
He also reiterated his unwavering support for Erdogan, saying, “As long as I’m alive, I will continue to vote for our cause, even if it’s on a stretcher or in a wheelchair.”
Police Chief's Hand-Kissing Gesture to MHP Leader Sparks Criticism
Footage of a Turkish police chief bowing to kiss the hand of Devlet Bahceli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), has sparked widespread criticism.
The incident occurred on July 15 during Bahceli’s visit to the Turkish police’s Special Operations Directorate in Golbasi, Ankara, marking the eighth anniversary of a failed coup attempt. Bahceli was greeted by Chief of Police Erol Ayyildiz and other officials. Special Operations Chief Suleyman Karadeniz and several other officers were seen kissing Bahceli’s hand.
Critics, particularly from the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), condemned the gesture. Murat Bakan, the CHP’s shadow interior minister, argued that the act undermines the neutrality and dignity of state officials and called for the police chief to be retired immediately.
CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel also criticized the incident, stating, “We do not accept state officials kissing hands and showing deference to political leaders.”
Nationalist AKP Lawmaker Plans Visit to Jailed Businessman Osman Kavala
Tugrul Turkes, a nationalist-leaning lawmaker from the ruling AKP and head of the Turkish delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, said he plans to visit jailed businessman and philanthropist Osman Kavala.
Turkes argues that the “unlawfulness” in Kavala’s case is a major factor in Turkey's economic crisis. He believes that addressing the legal issues highlighted by the Kavala case is crucial for attracting Western investors and improving the country's financial situation.
Turkes also said he has requested permission from Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc to visit Kavala in prison at a suitable time.
Erdogan Appoints Metin Kıratlı to Turkey’s Constitutional Court
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appointed Metin Kiratli, currently the head of the Directorate of Presidential Administrative Affairs and an associate professor of law, to Turkey’s Constitutional Court. The appointment was announced in the Official Gazette on July 18.
Kiratli, also a member of the Higher Education Board (YÖK), will take over from Emin Kuz, who retired in May. Kuz, appointed by former President Abdullah Gul in 2013, left his position due to age.
ECONOMY
AK Party Plans Major Overhaul of Retirement System
According to sources from the AK Party, Turkey plans to completely change its retirement system, examining models from different countries for guidance, Ekonomim news site reported.
The new plan will set the retirement age at 60 for women and 65 for men, with pensions based on the number of premium days paid. The state will also offer support such as transportation, food, and rent for those with low pensions. A new formula will be applied instead of adjusting the base salary every six months.
The AK Party's reform package will be discussed after the 2025 budget, with a gradual transition process planned.
Ruling Party Proposes Bill to Raise Minimum Pension and Impose New Taxes
Turkey's ruling party submitted a bill to parliament on July 15 to raise the minimum pension by 2,500 lira to 12,500 lira per month and to impose a minimum corporate tax on large multinational companies.
The draft law specifies that only the minimum pension will increase to 12,500 lira, with no changes for retirees earning more. AK Party parliamentary group chair Abdullah Guler noted that around 3.7 million of Turkey's 15.8 million pensioners receive the minimum pension. This increase will add approximately 33 billion lira ($997.4 million) to Turkey's 2024 budget.
The bill also introduces new savings plans to ensure fair taxation, including a minimum corporate tax. Multinational companies with annual consolidated revenue exceeding 750 million euros ($817.58 million) will face a minimum 15% corporate tax. Local companies will be subject to a 10% minimum corporate tax.
Additionally, the bill proposes raising the corporate tax for companies involved in public-private partnership projects, such as new bridges and highways, from 25% to 30%.
Turkey to Raise Overseas Departure Fee by 233%
The Turkish government plans to increase the overseas departure fee from 150 lira ($4.50) to 500 lira ($15), a 233 percent hike. The AK Party group chairman, Abdullah Guler, announced the hike on July 16.
The fee hike applies to travel by land, sea, air, and rail. There were earlier claims that the fee could rise to as much as 3,000 lira ($90).
The increase is part of a broader austerity package proposed by Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek to address Turkey's economic crisis. The proposed legislation also states that the departure fee will be updated annually.
Moody’s Upgrades Turkey’s Credit Rating to B1
Moody’s upgraded Turkey’s credit rating from B3 to B1 on July 19, citing improvements in governance and progress in managing inflation. The agency also maintained Turkey’s outlook as “positive.”
The upgrade reflects “improvements in governance, particularly the decisive and increasingly well-established return to orthodox monetary policy,” Moody’s said.
The agency noted that inflation and domestic demand have started to moderate, boosting confidence that inflationary pressures will significantly ease in the coming months and into 2025.
However, Moody’s also warned that “political risk remains a rating constraint.”
Turkey Builds Only 76,000 New Residences for Earthquake Victims, Falls Short of Promises
In the year and a half since two major earthquakes struck Turkey, authorities have built and handed over 76,000 new homes across 11 provinces, Transport and Infrastructure Minister Murat Kurum announced on July 19. This figure represents only a quarter of the 319,000 houses President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised to build within a year.
Minister Kurum stated that they aim to complete 200,000 houses by the end of the year. He also promised that a total of 650,000 homes would be built to provide new housing for all affected citizens by the end of 2025.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkish Court Sentences Former HDP Co-Chair Demirtas to Over Two Years in Prison
A Turkish court sentenced Selahattin Demirtas, the former co-chair of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), to over two years in prison on July 15. The charges stemmed from remarks he made between 2015 and 2017, which were deemed to denigrate state institutions.
The case involved speeches Demirtas gave in Diyarbakır, Mardin, Ankara, and Mersin, where he criticized President Erdogan and then-Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, accusing them of supporting terrorist groups like ISIL.
Demirtas denied the charges, claiming his statements were part of his role to criticize the government and advocate for human rights.
The court combined ten separate cases into one, initially sentencing Demirtas to three years but later reducing it to two-and-a-half years. The court did not suspend the sentence.
UN Rapporteur: Turkey Misuses ECtHR Ruling to Justify Strip-Searches
A recent UN review by the Committee Against Torture (CAT) revealed that Turkey misused a European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) decision to justify routine strip searches in prisons. UN rapporteur Bakhtiyar Tuzmukhamedov, speaking on July 17, noted that Turkey’s report on preventing torture misinterpreted the ECtHR ruling to support these practices.
Tuzmukhamedov pointed out several inconsistencies in Turkey’s report. For instance, although the Turkish Constitution mandates a 48-hour detention limit without charge, Turkish decrees permit detention for up to 14 days under a public prosecutor's authority, which conflicts with international standards.
The review emphasized the need for Turkey to align its laws with international norms and address systemic issues raised by civil society organizations. The rapporteur called for significant legislative and judicial reforms, stressing the need for independent oversight and effective investigations to prevent torture and mistreatment.
Turkish Police Detain 74 Over Alleged Gulen Movement Links
On July 15, the anniversary of the coup attempt, the Turkish police detained 74 people across 27 provinces for their alleged connections to the Gülen movement, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on social media.
The arrests were based on ByLock, a mobile messaging app, and payphone records.
FOREIGN POLICY
Erdogan Questions UN-led Talks on Cyprus, Calls for Equal Negotiations
Turkish President Erdogan, visiting northern Cyprus on July 20 to mark 50 years since Turkish forces invaded, said he sees no value in continuing UN-led negotiations on the island’s future.
“We believe that a federal solution is not possible in Cyprus. It is pointless to resume negotiations where we left off in Switzerland years ago,” he said in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC).
“The Turkish Cypriot side should sit at the table as equals with the Greek Cypriot side. We are ready to negotiate and achieve lasting peace and a solution,” Erdogan added.
Assad Sets Conditions for Meeting with Erdogan
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stated on July 15 that he would only meet Turkish President Erdogan if the discussion focuses on two key issues: Ankara's support for the rebels and the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territory.
"The problem is not the meeting, but its content," Assad told reporters in Damascus, as shown in a video clip released by the presidency. "If there were no discussion about the core of the problem, what would such a meeting mean?" he said.
Earlier in July, Erdogan mentioned that he would extend an invitation to Assad "any time" for talks aimed at restoring relations.
Erdogan Calls Assassination Attempt on Trump an “Attack on Democracy”
Turkish President Erdogan called the recent assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump an “attack on democracy” during a phone call with Trump, according to a statement from the presidential communications directorate.
On July 18, the directorate announced on X that Erdogan expressed his condemnation of the attempt on Trump’s life during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on July 13. Erdogan praised Trump’s “brave stance” following the attack and noted that continuing his campaign without interruption should be seen as an indicator of trust in the foresight of the American people.
Erdogan also congratulated Trump on his official nomination as the Republican Party's presidential candidate.
Turkey Plans Navy Deployment to Somali Waters for Oil and Gas Exploration
Turkey plans to send navy support to Somali waters following an agreement between the two countries for Ankara to dispatch an exploration vessel to prospect for oil and gas.
On July 19, President Tayyip Erdogan submitted a motion to the Turkish parliament seeking authorization to deploy Turkish military forces to Somalia, including its territorial waters.
This decision follows the Turkish energy ministry's earlier announcement that Turkey will send an exploration vessel to Somalia later this year as part of a hydrocarbon cooperation deal between the two countries.
Turkey and Niger to Enhance Cooperation in Energy, Mining, Intelligence, and Defense
Turkey and Niger agreed to enhance cooperation in energy, mining, intelligence, and defense. On July 17, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, along with Defense Minister Yasar Guler, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, and MIT intelligence agency head Ibrahim Kalin, visited Niger's capital, Niamey.
The Turkish delegation met with Niger's leader, General Abdourahmane Tiani, who took power after the coup in July last year. The two countries signed a declaration to support and encourage Turkish companies to develop oil and natural gas fields in Niger, according to Turkey's energy ministry.
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