ANALYSIS
"Inside Turkey’s EU-Funded Deportation Machine" by Melvyn Ingleby, Ylenia Gostoli, May Bulman, and Mesut Tatuz, New Lines Magazine
The EU has allocated at least 200 million euros in funding to the setting up and operation of a vast network of 32 “removal centers” in which migrants and refugees are abused, humiliated and forced to sign so-called “voluntary removal forms.”
Not only has Brussels put immense pressure on Turkish society by striking deals with Ankara to keep millions of refugees inside Turkey, it has also funded a system of apprehending, detaining and removing migrants and refugees, our investigation has found. By reviewing hundreds of pages of internal EU documents obtained through a freedom of information request last year, we calculated that the EU committed 213 million euros to a dozen projects related to the removal centers, and were able to document in great detail what has been financed — from bed linen to barbed wire. Although we found clear evidence that EU officials are aware of reported abuses inside the centers, the funding has continued unabated — and Brussels is currently debating a new extension.
While conditions do vary by center and are said to have recently improved in some, interviews with former personnel, as well as several lawyers who visit the centers, in addition to just under 40 former detainees who together witnessed conditions in three-quarters of the facilities, clearly indicate that various forms of mistreatment are systemic and ongoing. All three former and current staff we spoke with said the centers are “worse than prisons.
On top of these reported squalid conditions, detainees are routinely beaten. About half of the detainees we spoke to said they were beaten themselves, while around three-quarters said they witnessed such violence. While almost all victims of the abuse stressed that beatings took place in areas without cameras, CCTV footage very occasionally leaks out to the press.
More than three-quarters of the detained Syrians we spoke with for this investigation said they were pressured or physically forced to sign voluntary return forms.
Six European diplomats of five nationalities stationed in Turkey who spoke with us on condition of anonymity said they were also well aware of the reported violations in the centers.
Meanwhile, in Brussels, EU officials are debating how exactly to spend a new aid package of 2 billion euros, which the bloc allocated to Turkey in February. Potential new funding for the centers is part of that discussion, the Dutch Foreign Ministry confirmed. One EU diplomat said, “There is an expectation to increase the funding for migration and border management, because this was a commitment by our commissioner.”
"The limits of Turkey’s strategic autonomy", The Economist
Western capitals might take a dim view of Turkey’s BRICS gambit, but they are not alarmed. Membership of BRICS, which remains little more than a talking-shop, is a poor alternative to NATO or the EU, with which Turkey has a customs union.
Still, BRICS may not be ready to roll out the welcome mat just yet. India is rumoured to oppose Turkey’s accession, because of Mr Erdogan’s support for Pakistan in its dispute over Kashmir. Russia, too, is of two minds. On paper, Turkey’s BRICS membership would be a coup for Moscow, which welcomes any chance to drive a wedge between Turkey and its Western allies. But the Russians may be uneasy about having a NATO state in BRICS, fearing to water the group down even further.
Turkey may be backpedalling already. At a conference in Istanbul on October 14th, a Turkish diplomat said he was “not aware” whether his government had lodged an application to join BRICS. The BRICS bid was supposed to shine the spotlight on Turkey’s global ambitions. It may end up exposing their limits.
"Is Turkey playing ‘visa card’ to force Iraq’s hand on PKK?" by Mehmet Alaca, Amwaj.media
As part of a broader memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed in mid-August, Iraqi and Turkish officials inked a deal that mutually grants visitors under the age of 15 and over 50 visas on arrival.
However, within days of its implementation the deal came under fire by critics in Turkey, including the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and other actors. Detractors charge that the new visa regime could exacerbate existing tension over irregular migration.
Despite the disquiet, Ankara will likely rebuff calls to scrap the new deal, particularly given its centrality to the MoU’s broader accords over security, military, and counterterrorism. At the top of this file—and an agreement that Ankara is keen to hold on to—is Baghdad’s apparent acquiescence to Turkey’s ongoing campaign in northern Iraq against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
Ultimately, the longevity of Ankara and Baghdad’s new visa accord will be subject to how further negotiations over the ‘Development Road’ and other major trade projects proceed. As things stand, both sides have much to gain, and little to lose, from their visa rapprochement—despite the claims of critics.
POLITICS
Rumors of Cabinet Reshuffle Surface Amid Rising Violence in Turkey
The daily Birgun newspaper reported President Erdogan may soon consider reshuffling his Cabinet. According to AK Party insiders, no changes are expected in key ministries such as Vice Presidency, Treasury and Finance, Foreign Affairs, and Defense.
However, speculation is growing around potential replacements for Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya and Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc, reportedly due to the recent surge in violence in the country. Additionally, Ministers Mahinur Ozdemir Goktas (Family and Social Services), Osman Askin Bak (Youth and Sports), and Vedat Isikhan (Labor and Social Security) are also rumored to face dismissal.
CHP Leader Ozel to Visit Eastern Provinces and Demirtas in Prison
The Republican People's Party (CHP) Chairman Ozgur Ozel will embark on a 6-day tour of Eastern and Southeastern provinces, including cities like Diyarbakır, Van, and Hakkari. Ozel is expected to visit former HDP Co-Chair Selahattin Demirtas at Edirne Prison on October 21. Ozel applied to the Ministry of Justice for permission to meet with Demirtas.
DEM Party Leaders Visit Former HDP Chairs in Prison
On October 17, DEM Party Co-Chairs Tulay Hatimogullari and Tuncer Bakirhan visited former HDP Co-Chairs Figen Yuksekdag and Selahattin Demirtas, as well as Selcuk Mizrakli, the former Diyarbakir Metropolitan Municipality Mayor, who was replaced by a trustee, in prison.
Hatimogullari and Bakirhan shared messages from Demirtas and Yuksekdag regarding a potential new "resolution process." Demirtas emphasized the need to lift the isolation of imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, Hatimogullari said. Both leaders expressed their commitment to peace, stating, "We would certainly contribute to peace if we were outside, but even from inside, we will continue to do our best.", she added. Bakirhan also noted that any potential resolution process would not succeed without the involvement of the Republican People's Party (CHP).
ECONOMY
Turkey to Allocate Record $47 Billion for Defense and Security in 2025
On October 17, Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz announced the projected budget figures for 2025. The government expects budget expenditures to reach 14.73 trillion lira, while revenues are forecasted at 12.8 trillion lira, resulting in a budget deficit of approximately 1.93 trillion lira for the year.
Turkey plans to allocate $47 billion for defense and security in 2025, marking its highest-ever spending in this sector, according to a government budget proposal released on October 17. The number reflects a 17.5% increase from the $40 billion allocated in 2024.
During a briefing, Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz outlined that 913.9 billion Turkish lira ($26.8 billion) will be set aside for defense spending, which includes 165 billion lira for the defense industry support fund. The budget also allocates 694.5 billion lira for domestic security needs, covering the interior ministry, police, intelligence agency, and other related agencies.
Turkey's Budget Deficit Exceeds 1 Trillion TL in 9 Months
The Ministry of Treasury and Finance released the budget implementation results for September. According to the data, Turkey's central government budget revenues reached 831.6 billion TL, while expenditures totaled 932.1 billion TL, resulting in a deficit of 100.5 billion TL for the month.
From January to September, budget revenues increased by 76.9% compared to the same period last year, totaling 6.08 trillion TL. However, budget expenditures rose by 81.1%, reaching 7.16 trillion TL. As a result, the 9-month budget deficit surpassed 1 trillion TL, hitting 1.07 trillion TL.
Defense Industry Fund Proposal Postponed to Next Year Amid Public Outcry
The Turkish government announced that it had postponed the parliamentary debate on a proposed tax on credit cards until 2025. A new bill proposing a 750-lira fee for credit cards with limits of 100,000 lira and above, along with contribution fees from transactions like real estate sales, was discussed in the Planning and Budget Committee on October 15.
The tax, intended to fund the arms industry as regional conflicts escalate, faced significant public backlash from both Turkish citizens and opposition parties. Amid rising inflation, many frustrated citizens protested the proposal by calling their banks to lower their credit card limits.
AK Party Group Chairman Abdullah Guler announced that negotiations on the defense industry support fund, initially included in the bill, have been postponed to 2025 for further evaluation due to the objections raised.
Allianz Trade Revises Global Bankruptcy Forecast for 2024
Allianz Trade updated its 2024 Global Bankruptcy Report, prepared by expert economists worldwide and revealed on October 15. The global bankruptcy rate, initially projected at 9 percent in February, has been revised to 11 percent.
The report highlights Turkey as one of two major markets where businesses grapple with high financing costs and an economic slowdown. It also predicts that bankruptcies in Turkey will rise by 20 percent compared to last year.
Turkey Extends Work Permit Exemption for Foreigners to Three Years
On October 15, a new amendment published in the Official Gazette extended the work permit exemption for foreigners from six months to three years.
The regulation now allows foreigners, recognized by official institutions for their potential to significantly contribute to Turkey’s economy, culture, technology, and education, to receive work permit exemptions for up to three years instead of the previous six-month limit.
Central Bank Keeps Interest Rate Steady for Seventh Month
Turkey’s central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged for the seventh consecutive month. During a meeting chaired by Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan on October 17, the monetary policy committee announced it would hold the policy rate at 50 percent while remaining vigilant about inflation risks.
The committee stated it would maintain its tight monetary stance until a significant and lasting decline in monthly inflation is achieved and annual inflation meets expectations. It also emphasized that monetary policy tools will be used effectively if inflation deteriorates further.
Turkey Becomes Europe's Top Coal-Fired Electricity Producer in 2024
Turkey has been Europe's largest producer of coal-fired electricity for eight out of the first nine months of 2024, surpassing both Germany and Poland, according to energy think tank Ember.
From January to September, Turkey generated a record 88 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity from coal, 2% more than the same period in 2023. This was 28% higher than Germany’s 69 TWh and 36% above Poland’s 65 TWh.
Turkey's electricity demand also grew by 5% in 2024, compared to Europe’s 2.4% increase. Coal accounted for 35% of Turkey's power generation, making it the largest single source of electricity.
Turkey’s coal-related emissions reached new highs, with 88.4 million tons of carbon dioxide released so far in 2024 - 1.5 million tons more than last year. As coal-fired generation decreases across Europe, Turkey's share of the region's coal use and emissions has risen to over 19%.
Due to insufficient domestic coal production, Turkey relies on imports for around 40% of its coal needs. In the first nine months of 2024, Turkey imported 16.7 million metric tons of coal, with Russia being the largest supplier, followed by Colombia, Australia, and the United States.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Several Turkish Citizens Feared Abducted by Turkish Intelligence in Kenya
Seven Turkish citizens with ties to the Gülen movement were reportedly kidnapped by unknown individuals in Nairobi, Kenya, in the early hours of October 18, sparking fears that they may have been abducted by Turkey's National Intelligence Organization (MIT).
The individuals kidnapped were Mustafa Genc, his son Abdullah Genc, Huseyin Yesilsu, Necdet Seyitoglu, Ozturk Uzun, Alparslan Tasci, and his wife Saadet Tasci. Later, Mustafa Genc, Abdullah Genc, Necdet Seyitoglu, and Saadet Tasci were released, but the whereabouts of the others remain unknown.
The kidnapped individuals were asylum-seekers registered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and protected from forced return to Turkey.
Necdet Seyitoglu, a British national who lived in the UK for 18 years before moving to Kenya two years ago, told the BBC that he was released after eight hours when he showed his abductors his British passport. Seyitoglu said six other people he knew, all Turkish citizens, were similarly abducted from different locations in Nairobi.
The UK Foreign Office confirmed they provide consular support to Seyitoglu and his family. Kenyan police announced they are investigating the incident, while a local law firm, Mukele & Kakai, representing four registered refugees, warned airlines not to allow them to be transported out of the country.
Turkey Ranked Lowest in Europe for Online Freedoms by Freedom House
A report released by Washington-based Freedom House on October 16 ranked Turkey as the lowest-scoring country in Europe for online freedoms.
In the “Freedom on the Net 2024” report, which covers the period from June 2023 to May 2024, Turkey scored 31 out of 100, placing 56th among 72 countries worldwide. The index ranks countries from 0 (least free) to 100 (most free).
The low score is attributed to harsh prison sentences for social media posts, intense pressure on journalists, and several access bans and content removal decisions. The report included several examples of these restrictive practices.
Authorities Shut Down Istanbul's Acik Radyo After License Withdrawal
On October 16, authorities shut down Istanbul-based Acik Radyo, six months after a guest discussed the “Armenian genocide” on air. The Radio and Television Supreme Council (RTUK) revoked the station’s license in July, but the radio continued broadcasting until now.
Acik Radyo announced that it would take legal action against the decision and vowed to continue fighting and find a way to keep operating.
"Agent of Influence" Bill Resubmitted to Turkish Parliament
The "agent of influence" regulation, previously withdrawn due to public backlash, has been resubmitted to the Parliament.
AKP Group Chairman Abdullah Guler announced on October 18 that the proposal seeks to impose prison sentences of three to seven years for those committing crimes against state security for the benefit of a foreign state or organization. Guler argued that the regulation aims to strengthen efforts to combat espionage activities.
Report: The Global Organized Crime Index, 2023, Turkey
At each level of oil smuggling, corruption and state-embedded actors play a pivotal role.
Turkey continues to be a key transit state for migrant smuggling towards Europe from countries such as Syria and Afghanistan. Reports allege direct involvement of state-embedded actors and legitimate businesses in this market.
Turkey has been a source, transit and destination country for the heroin trade, due to its geographic location on the Balkan trafficking route, where heroin originating from Afghanistan is imported into Western Europe. Turkish organised-crime gangs continue to maintain control over the wholesale importation of heroin into the continent, and historic records in heroin seizures have been attained in recent years. While terrorist organizations are reported to be closely related to drug trafficking on all levels, reports suggest the collusion as well as active involvement of state officials and politicians in all of the drug-trafficking markets.
There are a significant number of mafia-style groups operating in Turkey, modelled on the traditional mafia system. Those that continue to exist in the country reportedly have developed close connections with the government and other politicians, making them immune to law enforcement or the judicial system, until they fall out of favour due to their actions.
Although combating organized crime has been an important aspect of the government’s policy in recent years, with several operations targeting illicit substance trafficking in particular, there is a general impression that enforcement is uneven in practice, with favouritism shown towards supporters of the ruling party and the president. Recent allegations suggest a close connection between the government and organized-crime organizations active in Turkey.
Even though there has been an ongoing cooperation effort between international counterparts, it is also well known that for the last couple of years Turkey has submitted increasing numbers of requests for the issuance of red notices to INTERPOL, based on political reasons, to target journalists, activists and political opponents living abroad.
Judges and prosecutors are allegedly directed by politicians to control political dissent and prosecutors abstained from launching investigations that may implicate the government or the political elite. As for the penitentiary system, lengthy detention and pre-trial periods are increasingly common in Turkey, with severe overcrowding and poor prison conditions being major issues.
Non-state actors are increasingly targeted if they are viewed as political opponents. The government has shut down several civil society organizations under the pretence of national security and terrorism concerns. The lack of media pluralism continues to be problematic, with most of the national media being controlled by the government, and investigative journalists facing lawsuits and detention.
FOREIGN POLICY
Turkish and Greek Foreign Ministers to Meet in Athens on November 8
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will travel to Athens on November 8 to meet with Greek Foreign Minister Yorgos Yerapetritis to discuss regional and bilateral issues, including the demarcation of an exclusive economic zone, Anadolu Agency reported on October 15.
Officials noted that Fidan's visit is a follow-up to Yerapetritis' trip to Ankara on September 5, 2023. The two ministers will also discuss preparations for the 6th High-Level Cooperation Council meeting, scheduled to take place in Ankara in 2025.
Times of Israel: Tel Aviv Suicide Bombing in August Linked to Hamas Operations in Turkey
An attempted suicide bombing in Tel Aviv in August was orchestrated under the direction of Hamas’ headquarters in Turkey, Times of Israel reported on October 15, citing Israel’s internal security service, Shin Bet, and the Israeli police.
The attack took place on August 18, when a man walked down a street in south Tel Aviv with a bomb in his backpack. The bomb exploded, killing the attacker instantly and moderately injuring a passerby.
Investigations revealed that one of the operatives made several trips to Turkey, where he received financial support and explosives training from Hamas members. Israeli authorities stated that the findings show Hamas' Turkey-based headquarters actively incites violence and plans attacks abroad.
Erdogan Meets KRG President Barzani Ahead of Iraqi Kurdistan Elections
Just days before the long-delayed parliamentary elections in Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Nechirvan Barzani on October 16.
The closed-door meeting at Erdogan’s presidential palace followed Barzani's meetings with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and National Intelligence Organization (MIT) chief Ibrahim Kalin earlier that day.
During the meeting, which also included Fidan, the leaders talked about bilateral relations and regional developments.
The semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on October 20. These elections, initially set for 2022, have been postponed four times due to conflicts between the Turkey-allied Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and its main rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. Experts believe Barzani's visit aims to reinforce Ankara's support for the KDP before the vote.
Support for NATO and EU Rises Among Turkish Public Amid Russia-Ukraine War
A new survey by the Pew Research Center, released on October 16, shows that support for Western blocs like the European Union and NATO has significantly increased among the Turkish public since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The survey reveals that Turkish approval of NATO has jumped from 25% in 2019 to 42% earlier this year. Additionally, 56% of Turkish adults now favor Turkey’s membership in the EU, up from 40% in 2017.
In contrast, only one-third of Turks view the United Nations positively, while just 30% have a favorable opinion of Russia. Support for China stands at 26%, and only 18% of Turks feel positively about the United States.
The survey also found that 60% of Turks lack confidence in any of the world's major leaders. President Erdogan's popularity has declined since 2017, dropping from 75% after a coup attempt in 2016 to 43% this year.
TRT Director Faces Backlash Over Plans to Launch Persian-Language Channel
The director general of Turkey's state broadcaster, Zahid Sobaci, has stirred controversy by announcing plans to launch a Persian-language TV channel aimed at "disturbing Iran."
Sobaci linked the launch of TRT Persian to Turkey's foreign policy, emphasizing the need to play an influential role in the "regional balance of power," adding, "We have to disturb Iran."
His comments have drawn criticism from both Iran and Turkey. Iranian critics have called for a response from the Islamic Republic, while some in Turkey have questioned Sobaci’s choice of words.
Iranian news outlets and social media were filled with backlash, with supporters of the Islamic Republic being particularly harsh. While some criticized Sobaci in Turkey, pro-government voices defended his statements and TRT's plans.
Turkish Foreign Minister Meets Hamas Officials in Istanbul
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with Mohammed Ismail Darwish, Chairman of the Hamas Shura Council, and members of the Hamas Political Bureau in Istanbul on October 18, according to an announcement by the Turkish Foreign Ministry.
The meeting focused on the humanitarian crisis in northern Gaza and ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire that could facilitate the exchange of hostages and prisoners, the ministry said. Minister Fidan also expressed condolences to Hamas officials for the death of Yahya Sinwar during the meeting.
German Chancellor Meets Erdogan to Discuss Defense, Migration, and Regional Issues
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with Turkish President Erdogan at the Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul on October 19. The leaders discussed several key issues, including the lifting of Germany’s arms export restrictions to Turkey, the potential sale of Eurofighter jets, and the extradition of 16,000 Turkish citizens whose asylum requests were denied in Germany. They also touched on bilateral relations, EU-Turkey relations, and Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon.
In a joint press conference, Erdogan expressed a desire to overcome past challenges in defense industry cooperation, emphasizing future collaboration. He also noted that Turkey is ready to accept refugees from Lebanon.
Chancellor Scholz commented on the Eurofighter jet deal, clarifying that Britain is currently leading the project, which is still in the early stages. Scholz also acknowledged their differing views on Israel, saying that Israel has the right to defend itself.
Ahead of the visit, a defense ministry official announced on October 17 that Turkey has been conducting technical works to speed up its efforts to acquire Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets,
"Technical-level efforts for the procurement of Eurofighter Typhoon jets are in progress, aimed at accelerating the process," the official reported, adding that no conditions have been raised during the ongoing discussions.
CHP Party Spokesperson Deniz Yucel criticized President Erdogan's recent invitation for Lebanese refugees to come to Turkey. Highlighting the presence of Syrian, Afghan, Pakistani, and African refugees already in the country, Yucel questioned the invitation, saying, "Are you inviting them to your father's farm?"
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