WEEKLY NEWS BULLETIN ON TURKEY 21 APRIL 2025

by instituDE, published on 21 April 2025

ANALYSIS

"Why Turkey's democratic future matters for the world", by Ekrem Imamoglu – Mayor of Istanbul, Financial Times 

I am writing these words from a cell in Silivri Prison, where many other elected officials, academics, journalists and activists are also held. I have been imprisoned on the basis of vague hearsay from a handful of so-called "confidential witnesses". There is no conviction against me. I am a political prisoner.

Turkey's stability has never mattered only to its own citizens. As Nato's second largest army, a signatory of the Council of Europe, and a long-standing candidate for EU membership, our political orientation is central to the security of Europe, the transatlantic alliance and the broader Middle East and Caucasus region. 

In each of these theatres, a democratic, secular Turkey is not merely helpful — it is essential. As the EU strives to fortify itself against growing challenges, the presence of a democratic Turkey is indispensable. A regime that silences its youth, crushes dissent and governs by fear will only deepen regional volatility. 

"The Folly of Treating Ankara as an Adversary" by Michael Doran, Wall Street Journal

Turkey doubtless poses serious challenges, including growing hostility toward Israel. But labeling it an enemy risks deepening that hostility. Before making a bad situation worse, shouldn't the Trump administration at least attempt to strike a balance between Ankara and Jerusalem?

The Turks play a central role in containing Iran. Turkish-backed forces helped topple Bashar al-Assad and expelled Iranian militias from Syria—outcomes that directly served American and Israeli interests. Equally important, Turkey guarantees the independence of Azerbaijan, a crucial Israeli ally.

American statecraft must work with what exists. Military alliances are built on shared interests, not values. Strategy begins with that recognition.

"How Turkey's opposition plans to take on Erdogan" by John Paul Rathbone, Financial Times

Ozgur Ozel, head of the Republican People's Party, or CHP, told the Financial Times it had "no plan" to substitute İmamoğlu but recognised that it needed to sustain momentum without him after the initial explosion of popular discontent.

This includes organising regular demonstrations and a signature drive to translate anger over İmamoğlu's arrest into a cause that resonates broadly with voters. Ozel also suggested he was open to forming an opposition coalition of the sort that narrowly failed to defeat Erdogan's AK party and its partners in 2023.

But Ozel added that if a government-imposed ban made İmamoğlu's candidacy impossible, "we will determine the most suitable candidate, and carry out a campaign based around İmamoğlu's campaign for freedom".

Even so, analysts say the opposition has a hard road ahead against a president who has a record as a ruthless political operator. "Whatever you can imagine, he [Erdogan] can do it . . . There are no limits," Ozel said.

"Is the US willing to favour Turkiye over Israel in Syria?" by Muhammad Hussein, Middle East Monitor

The battleground between Turkiye and Israel within their mutual neighbour is far from being theoretical. It is a geopolitical reality that Ankara in particular must contend with.

Both states have, until now, insisted that they do not want confrontation, but Tel Aviv is certainly being the more aggressive of the two while there is as yet no sign that Ankara is seeking any such proxy face-off in Syria.

And it is that dynamic which is possibly being seen even by US President Trump. His exchange with Netanyahu seemed to give additional credence to the view that the two leaders harbour significant disagreements, and that Trump's relationship with Netanyahu is deteriorating slowly but surely.

If the Turkish leadership continues to play its cards right by securing the goodwill of the US president while downplaying any feud with Israel in Syria and the Levant, we may indeed witness a shift in America's foreign policy in the region. And this could well be at Tel Aviv's expense.

"Will troubled pivot to Europe, Turkey lead Armenia back to Iran, Russia?" by Eldar Mamedov, Amwaj.media

Geopolitical shifts in Eurasia, particularly if the war in Ukraine concludes with Russia achieving its objectives, could further alter regional dynamics in the South Caucasus. Russia might seek to reassert its influence, which has been weakened since the war in Ukraine began, to the benefit of Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Moscow might aim to curb Ankara's influence, especially after Turkey gained an advantage in their regional competition following the toppling of Russia's ally in Syria. 

Armenia might in this scenario seek to repair ties with Russia to balance against the Turkish-Azerbaijani partnership, particularly if France and the EU cannot provide security guarantees. Iran would welcome this, as it sees Turkish-Azerbaijani dominance in the South Caucasus as detrimental to its interests.

POLITICS

Court Rejects Objection to Imamoglu's Detention as MHP Leader Calls for Swift Trial

A Turkish court rejected the objection to the arrest of Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on April 14. His lawyers had filed the appeal with the Istanbul 10th Criminal Court of Peace on April 7, challenging his arrest over "suspicion of escape."

Meanwhile, Devlet Bahceli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), called for Imamoglu's trial to begin without delay. Imamoglu has been held in pretrial detention at Marmara Prison since March 23 on corruption charges.

"If the suspect is innocent, he should be acquitted; if he is guilty, he should be punished in a way that satisfies the public conscience and without delay," Bahceli said in a written statement.

In response to Bahceli's comments, Imamoglu said, "I find Bahceli's observations and call regarding the judicial process that my colleagues and I have been subjected to very important." He also criticized President Erdogan, saying, "President Erdogan is the one who prefers crisis, chaos, and confusion."

Former Deputy PM Criticizes Imamoglu's Arrest, Diploma Cancellation

Former Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc criticized the decision to cancel the diploma of jailed CHP presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu, calling it a mistake.

"Those who believe this was a setup are not wrong," Arinc said, adding that a diploma granted 35 years ago cannot be revoked due to vested rights.

He also stated that Imamoglu, as a metropolitan mayor, should be tried without being held in pretrial detention.

Turkey's Top Election Body Rejects Appeal to Overturn CHP Congress

Turkey's Supreme Election Board (YSK) has rejected an appeal to annul the extraordinary congress of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), where party leader Ozgur Ozel was re-elected earlier this month.

The appeal was filed by academic Kemal Ciftci, who claimed the April 6 congress was marred by procedural violations and that his candidacy had been unlawfully blocked. The Cankaya District Election Board dismissed his initial complaint due to lack of evidence.

Ciftci then took the case to the YSK, arguing that congress should be repeated due to "gross illegality." The YSK, however, upheld the lower board's ruling, stating there were no legal grounds to overturn the results.

Pro-Kurdish DEM Party Urges Legal Path for PKK Disarmament

Turkey's pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) on April 15 called on parliament to take legislative steps toward reviving a peace process by supporting the disarmament of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

Speaking in parliament, DEM Party co-chair Tulay Hatimogullari said a peaceful resolution could only be achieved if imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan is allowed to communicate with the outside world and if a legal framework is established.

Prominent MP from Pro-Kurdish Party in Critical Condition After Emergency Heart Surgery

Sirri Sureyya Onder, a senior lawmaker from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party and deputy speaker of parliament, is in critical condition after undergoing a 12-hour emergency heart surgery for an aortic dissection.

Onder, 62, was hospitalized late on April 15 following a suspected heart attack. Doctors at Florence Nightingale Hospital discovered a torn aorta and rushed him into surgery. Onder remains in intensive care and is on heart support due to right-side heart failure, the hospital said.

The DEM Party's meeting with Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc on April 18 was postponed due to Onder's critical health condition. "We will share the new appointment date once it is confirmed next week," the party announced.

Party Spokesperson Ayşegül Dogan shared an update on April 18 on Sırrı Onder's health, stating that while doctors have confirmed his condition is currently stable, the high risk to his life remains. Dogan added that the party is holding on to hope as they continue to await further developments.

Pro-government Journalist Investigated Over Claims About CHP Takeover

Turkish prosecutors have launched an investigation into pro-government journalist Rasim Ozan Kutahyali after he claimed on X that the government would take control of the opposition CHP and launch operations against two CHP-run districts in Ankara.

In a series of posts on X, Kutahyali alleged that a court would annul the party's 2023 congress results and that a trustee would be appointed to lead the CHP. He also suggested police operations would take place in Ankara's Keçiören and Etimesgut districts. 

The Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office announced on April 16 that Kutahyali is under investigation for "spreading misleading information." He was briefly detained and released under judicial supervision on April 17.

ECONOMY

Former Central Bank Economist: $50 Billion FX Intervention Marks Historic Record

Former Central Bank chief economist Prof. Dr Hakan Kara stated on X on April 15 that Turkey's net foreign exchange intervention has neared $50 billion over the past four weeks following the detention and arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

Sharing a graphic to support his claim, Kara said the interventions—carried out through various channels—represent the largest in the country's history.

Turkey's Central Bank Raises Interest Rate to 46% Amid Political Turmoil

Turkey's central bank raised its key interest rate to 46 percent on April 17 in a move aimed at stabilizing the economy following weeks of protests over the arrest of İstanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. "The monetary policy committee has decided to raise the policy rate," the bank announced in a statement.

Despite a $50 billion intervention by the central bank to support the lira, the currency has lost over 4 percent against the dollar since March 19.

After the Central Bank's unexpected interest rate increase, major U.S. investment banks revised their year-end policy rate forecasts upward. JPMorgan raised its estimate from 35% to 38%, Goldman Sachs from 28.5% to 33%, and Morgan Stanley from 33.5% to 36%.

Turkey's Central Bank Reports $18.4 Billion Loss for 2024

Turkey's central bank reported a loss of 700.4 billion Turkish lira ($18.4 billion) for 2024, according to its balance sheet published in the Official Gazette on April 15, Dunya daily reported.

The loss follows an even larger shortfall of 818.2 billion lira ($25 billion) in 2023. In comparison, the bank had recorded profits of 57.5 billion lira in 2021 and 72 billion lira in 2022.

The consecutive losses are linked mainly to the central bank's now-terminated foreign exchange-protected deposit scheme, launched in late 2021 to stabilize the lira. The program guaranteed compensation for losses against foreign exchange fluctuations.

Despite the losses, the bank's 93rd fiscal report showed that its total assets grew from 6.92 trillion lira in 2023 to 8.59 trillion lira by the end of 2024.

Fitch Ratings Downgrades Turkey's Economic Growth Forecast

Fitch Ratings has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025, lowering it from 2.3% to 1.9% due to the escalating global trade war.

The agency expects Turkey's economy to grow by 2.5% this year and 3.5% next year.

Turkey's Tupras Resumes Russian Oil Purchases as Prices Drop Below G7 Cap

Turkey's largest oil refiner, Tupras, has resumed purchases of Russian Urals crude after halting them earlier this year due to heightened U.S. sanctions, according to trading sources and shipping data, Reuters reported.

Sources say Tupras restarted imports after Urals prices dropped to their lowest levels since 2023, falling well below the G7's $60-per-barrel price cap. At least two Urals cargoes are expected to be delivered for April loading, according to those familiar with the trade.

HUMAN RIGHTS

Human Rights Lawyer Rearrested Less Than 24 Hours After Release

Selcuk Kozagacli, a prominent human rights lawyer and honorary president of the Progressive Lawyers' Association (CHD), was released on April 16, prompting celebrations among his colleagues, rights activists, and opposition supporters in Turkey.

But his freedom was short-lived. The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office objected to the release, citing concerns over executing his sentence.

After briefly appearing before a prosecutor, Kozagacli was rearrested on April 17 and sent back to Silivri Prison, where he had originally been held since 2017 on terrorism-related charges.

Istanbul Police Detain 12 in Beşiktaş Municipality Bid-Rigging Probe

Twelve city officials were detained on April 17 in a bid-rigging investigation targeting the opposition-run Beşiktaş Municipality in Istanbul.

Among those detained is Deputy Mayor Ali Riza Yilmaz. The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office issued warrants for all 12 suspects. Eleven were taken into custody during early morning raids, and the final suspect was detained later that day. 

Yilmaz and four municipal employees were arrested on April 18. Seven other suspects were released under judicial control with a travel ban.

Separately, Fidan Gul, deputy mayor of Istanbul's Beykoz district, was arrested on April 16 in a similar probe. Her arrest follows an earlier investigation that led to the arrest of Beykoz Mayor Alaattin Koseler in February on charges of bid-rigging and forming a criminal organization.

Bluesky Blocks Dozens of Accounts in Turkey Following Court Orders

The decentralized social media platform Bluesky, a free-speech-friendly alternative to mainstream platforms like X, has restricted access to 72 accounts and one post in Turkey, the Freedom of Expression Association reported.

Turkish court orders prompted internet service providers to block 59 accounts. In addition, Bluesky voluntarily made 13 more accounts and one post inaccessible within the country.

Council of Europe Voices Concern Over Rights Violations in Turkey

The Council of Europe has expressed concern about potential rights violations in Turkey following the imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and the arrests of hundreds during protests.

Speaking to Reuters at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, Secretary General Alain Berset said the Council doesn't take a position on ongoing investigations into Turkish opposition figures but emphasized the importance of open and honest dialogue with Ankara.

Berset also warned that democratic backsliding is a "huge challenge" worldwide, including in Europe, and noted that the Council is working on a "new democratic pact" to confront the issue.

FOREIGN POLICY

Germany Reportedly Blocks Fighter Jet Sale to Turkey Over Imamoglu Arrest

Germany has reportedly vetoed the sale of Eurofighter Typhoon jets to Turkey, according to a report by German economics newspaper Handelsblatt on April 17.

The decision was allegedly driven by recent political developments in Turkey, particularly the detention and arrest of Istanbul Mayor and presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu. The German government reportedly viewed Imamoglu's arrest as "an attack on Turkish democracy," which it found incompatible with democratic values.

According to the report, Berlin concluded that proceeding with the sale would be neither politically nor morally acceptable under the current circumstances.

Turkish-Operated Tanker Damaged in U.S. Strike on Yemen Port

A fuel tanker operated by a Turkish company sustained minor damage during a U.S. strike on April 17 targeting the Ras Isa oil terminal on Yemen's Houthi-controlled Hudaydah coast.

The vessel, docked at the port to unload cargo, suffered shrapnel damage but remains operational. The crew includes 26 members—four Turkish nationals, including the captain, and 22 Indian nationals and all are reported to be in good condition.

Following the incident, the Turkish Foreign Ministry and the Turkish Embassy in Sanaa launched immediate diplomatic efforts.

Turkey Condemns Greece's Maritime Plan Over Jurisdiction Dispute

The Turkish Foreign Ministry has condemned Greece's newly unveiled Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP), accusing Athens of encroaching on Turkey's maritime jurisdiction in the Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean.

Greece announced the MSP on April 16 to regulate maritime activities such as tourism, energy exploration, fishing, and environmental protection.

In a statement, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said some areas outlined in the plan "violate Turkey's maritime jurisdiction areas" and urged Greece to avoid unilateral actions in semi-enclosed seas like the Aegean and Mediterranean.

"There are signs that Turkey is growing closer to Indonesia—and to ASEAN" by  Adinda Khaerani Epstein, Atlantic Council

Turkey and ASEAN countries will likely continue to strengthen their people-to-people connections as a result of Turkey's Asia Anew Initiative. As ASEAN member states look to avoid becoming overly dependent on any major powers, they are likely to expand cooperation with middle-power countries, such as Turkey.

In addition, countries on the outskirts of the Turkey-ASEAN relationship—including the United States and China—will play a role in shaping the future of these ties, as such larger powers impact how Turkey and ASEAN members manage their economic interests and navigate the geopolitical landscape.

Nevertheless, Turkey and ASEAN countries can deepen their mutually beneficial partnership in a way that assists the former in overcoming its economic challenges and unlocks new markets and opportunities for ASEAN members.