ANALYSIS
"Turkey’s Chosen Side in Sudan: Why It Matters?" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
As Sudan teeters on the brink of a prolonged civil war, Turkey’s involvement in Sudan underscores its ambition to expand its influence in East Africa and the Red Sea region.
Turkey’s recent diplomatic initiatives, including its efforts to mediate between Ethiopia and Somalia, highlight its growing capability in conflict resolution in East Africa. An understanding between the leaders of the SAF and the UAE in Ankara-mediated talks could bring the civil war in Sudan to a swift conclusion.
By siding with one of the warring parties in the conflict, the Turkish government might be thinking of seizing the moment as realpolitik increasingly becomes the norm in the current geopolitical landscape. However, by supplying military aid in a conflict where no humanitarian law or principles are respected, Turkey risks exacerbating the suffering of civilians, dramatically increasing casualties, and further deteriorating regional stability.
"Turkey Hasn't Won Anything Yet in Syria" by Steven A. Cook, Foreign Policy
The idea that Ankara is victorious in Syria assumes that the Turkish government has all the power in this relationship. It likely once did, but after the end of the Assad regime, HTS needs Erdogan and company less.
Although Fidan beat everyone else to Damascus, a parade of delegations also beat a path to HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa’s doorstep, including diplomats from the United States, United Kingdon, and France and Germany (collectively representing the European Union). Clearly, al-Sharaa has more options for external partners than he and HTS had just two months ago.
Regardless of whatever affinity Turks may perceive between themselves and Syrians, it likely pales in comparison to that of Syrians with their fellow Arabs. This gives Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Jordan, and others an advantage over Turkey in Damascus.
The premature triumphalism around the idea that “Turkey won Syria” creates a set of assumptions and expectations that are not necessarily grounded in reality, setting policymakers up for potentially nasty surprises.
"Why Saudi Arabia is so keen on the Turkish KAAN" by Ali Bakir, The Atlantic Council
Waiting over fifteen years to acquire new fighter jets only to face a potential veto would be an unwise move, especially considering two factors. First, Saudi Arabia’s ties with China are expected to strengthen if current trends persist, suggesting that a veto would become more likely. Second, it would be unwise because of Saudi Arabia’s desire to quickly establish a localized defense industry, diversify its military purchases, and acquire advanced fighter jets. In contrast to the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) countries, Turkey is already open to exporting the jet to allies and partners.
Moreover, by pursuing fighter jet acquisitions from Turkey, Saudi Arabia is strategically positioning itself to reduce its reliance on Western military hardware, including US military equipment.
This would be a double win for Riyadh because it would not only acquire the KAAN with no strings attached to the deal but also have an opportunity to request that parts of the production line be located in Saudi Arabia, expediting the expansion of its local defense industry.
POLITICS
Besiktas Mayor Arrested in Criminal Organization Probe
In Istanbul, authorities issued detention orders for 47 suspects, including Besiktas Mayor Riza Akpolat and former Esenyurt Mayor Ahmet Ozer, who is currently under arrest, as part of an investigation into a profit-driven criminal organization. Employees from the Besiktas and Esenyurt municipalities are among those detained.
Akpolat was detained in Balikesir. Security forces also searched the Besiktas Municipality Mayor's office and Akpolat's home.
The organization, allegedly led by Aziz Ihsan Aktas, is accused of rigging tenders by bribing mayors and senior municipal officials.
Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality President Ekrem Imamoglu visited CHP Headquarters to monitor the developments. He met with CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel and held a joint press conference.
Imamoglu strongly criticized Istanbul Chief Prosecutor Akin Gurlek, while Ozel accused the government of being unable to accept CHP’s success in local elections. He claimed the government was targeting CHP-run municipalities in Istanbul through these operations. Ozel also called on President Erdogan to hold elections.
On January 15, Imamoglu made the following statement, referring to the criminal case being heard at the Court of Appeal: 'Since I am your target, be brave and approve my punishment and leave the nation alone.
The court arrested 23 suspects, including Mayor Akpolat and alleged organization leader Aktas. Seventeen suspects were released under judicial control.
CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel criticized the arrests, stating, "The AK Party’s actions today are a clear declaration of war against the CHP. We acknowledge and accept this."
The Ministry of Interior announced on January 17 that Akpolat was temporarily suspended following his arrest. The ministry stated that he was suspended as a "precautionary measure" after being charged with joining a criminal organization, rigging tenders, and making illicit gains. The Besiktas Municipal Council will elect the deputy mayor on Thursday, January 23.
CHP leader Ozel also met with party deputies at the Istanbul Provincial Headquarters on January 18. After the meeting, CHP Group Deputy Chairman Ali Mahir Basarir said, "We will take more than one action during this process, not just one. It won’t be a single rally but a series of rallies. We will take broader, tougher, and more significant steps."
Ex-Opposition Leader Rumored for Vice Presidency Ahead of AK Party Congress
As the countdown begins for the AK Party's grand congress in late February, changes are expected within the party and the cabinet. While former Minister Berat Albayrak was previously rumored for a cabinet position, the name of former Good Party leader Meral Aksener has emerged.
SOZCU columnist Erdal Saglam claimed that Aksener is being considered for the Vice Presidency.
Last October, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan dropped the lawsuits he had filed against Aksener.
Reports Claim Kursad Zorlu to Join AKP, Kasim Gulpinar to Stay Independent
Pro-government TGRT Haber reported that Kursad Zorlu, who recently resigned from the Good Party, will join the AK Party. Zorlu is expected to officially join the party in the coming weeks and possibly take on a role within the party or the Presidential Complex.
Meanwhile, the same source stated that Sanliurfa Mayor Kasim Gulpinar, who met with President Erdogan after leaving the New Welfare Party, has decided not to join the AK Party. Gulpinar is expected to continue his political career as an independent.
Another pro-government news source, Turkiye, claimed that at least four deputies and 20 mayors from towns and districts are set to join the AK Party in the coming days. According to the report, the new members are expected to collectively join the AK Party at party group meetings or at the grand congress on February 23. The deputies joining the party are anticipated to come from the Future Party, DEVA Party, and Good Party.
Bahceli Praises DEM Party’s Visits, Erdogan Announces Further Plans for YPG
MHP leader Devlet Bahceli praised the DEM Party's recent visits to party leaders and politicians in prison during his group meeting on January 14, calling them positive steps. "After the DEM Party delegation's second meeting with Ocalan, the PKK's dissolution should be declared unconditionally. PKK members must either lay down their weapons, surrender, or face their inevitable fate," Bahceli said at a meeting of his party on January 14.
On January 18, President Erdogan addressed the ongoing efforts, emphasizing that the situation is nearing its conclusion. He stated that if the PKK fulfills its obligations and its political counterparts act accordingly, it would benefit all of Turkey. However, if this does not happen, Turkey will continue to address the issue through ongoing operations, he added. Erdoğan also reaffirmed Turkey’s firm stance against the YPG, announcing plans for further decisive actions to address the issue.
DEM Party Delegation to Request Second Meeting with PKK Leader Ocalan
The Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) delegation plans to apply to the Ministry of Justice for a second meeting with PKK Leader Abdullah Ocalan.
After their first meeting with Ocalan in late December, the DEM Party delegation met with political party leaders in Parliament and politicians in prison. The delegation is expected to submit its application on January 20 for another meeting with Ocalan.
Statute of Limitations Drops Sentences in Muhsin Yazicioglu Crash Case
The sentences for public officials involved in the 2009 helicopter crash that killed Muhsin Yazicioglu, founder of the Great Unity Party (BBP), and five others were dropped due to the statute of limitations.
The 5th Criminal Chamber of the Supreme Court of Appeals sentenced former Kahramanmaras Governor Mehmet Niyazi Tanilir, former Provincial Gendarmerie Commander Sezai Akgun, and former Provincial Police Chief Necdet Celikbilek to 1 year and 2 months in prison for "abuse of office." in 2021. However, the 12-year statute of limitations had expired before the sentences were finalized, leading to the dismissal of the case.
ECONOMY
Turkey Records $2.87 Billion Current Account Deficit in November
Turkey’s current account posted a $2.87 billion deficit in November 2024, slightly below the $2.96 billion forecast, the Central Bank reported.
Excluding gold and energy, there was a $3.44 billion surplus. The goods deficit rose to $5.24 billion from $3.6 billion in October.
The annualized deficit grew to $7.37 billion, mainly financed by direct investments ($4.2B), portfolio inflows ($14.1B), and loans ($24.6B). From January to November, the deficit fell to $5.6 billion from $38.7 billion last year.
Turkey Hits Record Budget Deficit in 2024
The Ministry of Treasury and Finance shared the central budget results for December and the entire year of 2024.
In December, budget revenues rose by 60.4% compared to the previous year, reaching 877.6 billion liras, while expenditures grew by 22.3% to 1.7 trillion liras.
For January-December, revenues increased by 66.5% to 8.67 trillion liras, and expenditures rose by 63.6% to 10.78 trillion liras.
Turkey ended 2024 with a budget deficit of 829.2 billion liras in December and 2.1 trillion liras for the entire year.
Central Bank Announces Year-End Inflation Expectations
The Central Bank released the January edition of its Market Participants Survey, based on the views of 68 experts, including 52 from the financial sector and 16 from the real sector.
The survey showed that the year-end inflation expectations fell slightly from 27.07% to 27.05%. Participants forecast the dollar/TL exchange rate to reach 43.0265 by December 31, 2025.
They also predicted the policy rate to be 45%, with an interest rate cut expected at the first Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for January 23.
Syria Raises Customs Duties on Turkish Imports by 300%
Syria's interim government increased customs duties on Turkish imports on January 11 by up to 300%. The decision caused long truck queues at the border, with over 3,000 vehicles waiting at the gates. Regional exporters urged Turkish ministries to find a quick solution.
Turkey's Trade Ministry announced on January 17 that talks for a free trade agreement are ongoing, with a face-to-face meeting planned next week.
Discussions on trade, customs, and foreign policy continue amid the new customs regulations, the ministry added.
Turkey Boosts LNG Imports to Meet Winter Demand Amid Pipeline Disruptions
Turkey has increased its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to cover peak winter demand as regional pipeline supplies drop, Bloomberg reported.
According to traders, state-run gas importer Botas purchased seven LNG shipments for delivery between late January and March and is seeking another cargo for February.
A technical issue in a subsea condensate pipeline last week forced the shutdown of the Alpha platform at Azerbaijan’s BP-led Shah Deniz gas field, cutting exports to Turkey, Georgia, and Europe. However, gas deliveries to Turkey continue from the Bravo platform.
BP Plc resumed operations on one of its two production platforms at Shah Deniz. The Alpha platform was restarted on the evening of January 18, according to a statement from BP.
US Imposes New Limits on AI Chip Exports
The US introduced new rules to tighten the export of advanced chips used in artificial intelligence. The White House highlighted that AI is quickly becoming a key factor in both national security and economic strength.
The new regulation allows chip sales to continue without restrictions to 18 allied and partner countries, including Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the UK. However, Turkey is not on this list.
Erdogan Announces New Family Incentives as Turkey Faces Declining Birth Rate
Speaking in Ankara on January 13, President Erdogan highlighted that Turkey’s elderly population has surpassed 10% for the first time, and the country’s average age has risen to 34. He reaffirmed his long-standing goal of encouraging families to have three children.
Turkey’s birth rate dropped to 1.51 in 2023, down from 2.38 in 2001. The population reached 85.4 million in 2023, while the percentage of children aged 0-14 fell to 21.4% from 26.4% in 2007.
To address this issue, Erdogan declared 2025 as the “Year of Family” and announced increased financial support. Families will receive a one-time payment of 5,000 liras ($141) for their first child. Monthly aid of 1,500 liras will be given for a second child and 5,000 liras for a third child or more.
Newlyweds can also access a family fund offering up to 150,000 liras in interest-free loans with a two-year repayment delay.
HUMAN RIGHTS
HRW 2025 Report Highlights Several Human Rights Concerns in Turkey
In its 2025 World Report, Human Rights Watch (HRW) highlighted several human rights concerns in Turkey.
Freedom of Expression: The government maintains strict control over media outlets, including the public broadcaster TRT and the Anadolu Ajansı news agency. Independent media primarily operate online but face frequent blocking orders and content removal, often justified by vague national security or public order concerns. The Freedom of Expression Association reported that by March 2024, over one million websites had been blocked since 2007.
Freedoms of Association and Assembly: Thousands of individuals faced detention, prosecution, or administrative penalties for alleged ties to the movement. Dismissals from public service persisted, with limited legal recourse for those affected.
Courts handed down lengthy prison sentences for supposed membership in the organization, often based on tenuous evidence such as using specific apps, attending schools linked to the group, or financial transactions.
Torture and Ill-Treatment in Custody: The UN Committee against Torture expressed concerns over widespread allegations of torture in detention centers. Recommendations included ending practices like reverse handcuffing and halting extrajudicial extraditions, especially concerning individuals linked to the Gulen movement.
Kurdish Conflict and Crackdown on Opposition: Turkey continues military operations against the PKK in northern Iraq and Syria, with airstrikes affecting civilian infrastructure. Domestically, numerous Kurdish activists, politicians, and former officials face imprisonment on terrorism charges for non-violent political activities. Notably, former HDP co-chairs Selahattin Demirtas and Figen Yuksekdag have remained incarcerated since 2016.
Women's Rights: Following Turkey's withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention in 2021, the government has been criticized for inadequately addressing gender-based violence. In the first half of 2024, 166 women were reported killed by men, with independent sources citing higher numbers.
ECtHR Rules Turkey Violated Fair Trial Rights, Orders €408K Compensation
The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) in Strasbourg ruled that Turkey violated the fair trial rights of 42 former judges and prosecutors from the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK) secretariat. The court found a breach of Article 6§1 of the convention and ordered Turkey to pay each applicant €7,800 in non-pecuniary damages, totaling €327,600.
Turkey was also ordered to cover over €80,000 in court fees, bringing the total compensation to €408,420.
ECtHR Rules Against Turkey in Unlawful Detention and Trial Delay Cases
In two separate cases, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) ruled against Turkey on January 16. The court found that the detention of four former police officers, including ex-Intelligence Department Director Ramazan Akyurek, was "unreasonably excessive." Turkey was ordered to pay each officer between €5,100 and €6,500 in non-pecuniary damages.
On the same day, the ECtHR also ruled in favor of former judge Sedef Ayvaz, citing a violation due to her prolonged trial. The court ordered Turkey to pay Ayvaz €3,900 in non-pecuniary damages.
Security Forces Target Gulen Movement in Nationwide Operations
Security forces launched simultaneous operations across eight provinces centered in Istanbul, targeting the Gulen Movement. The operations focused on 50 suspects, including active soldiers, police officers, and public employees. In the early morning raids, authorities detained 40 people.
On January 14, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced that security forces detained 110 people in operations against the Gülen Movement across 23 provinces within a week.
Yerlikaya also revealed on January 18 that 47 people had been detained during two weeks of operations across 23 provinces, with 33 arrested.
DEM Party Co-Mayors and Council Members Arrested in Terrorism Probe
As part of a terrorism investigation, DEM Party Akdeniz Municipality Co-Mayors Hosyar Sariyildiz and Nuriye Aslan, along with Municipal Council members Ozgur Caglar, Neslihan Oruc, and Hikmet Bakirhan, who had been detained on January 10, were arrested on January 13. Municipal Council member Yakup Danis was released on probation.
The Ministry of Interior appointed Akdeniz District Governor Zeyit Sener as a trustee to replace arrested Co-Mayor Hosyar Sariyildiz. The ministry also suspended the four arrested council members.
Istanbul Prosecutor's Office Requests Dismissal of Istanbul Bar Association President and Board
The Istanbul Public Prosecutor's Office has filed an indictment calling for the removal of Istanbul Bar Association President Ibrahim Kaboglu and the Board of Directors and the election of a new president and board. The investigation was triggered by a statement from the Istanbul Bar Association regarding the deaths of journalists Nazım Dastan and Cihan Bilgin in Syria.
The lawsuit to dismiss Kaboglu and the board has drawn strong reactions from many unions and professional associations. In a joint statement, they demanded, "This unlawfulness must end immediately."
Bar Association President Kaboglu announced plans to hold an extraordinary congress on February 23 as a precaution after the lawsuit was filed.
FOREIGN POLICY
Turkey Pledges Support to Syria's New Administration in Fight Against Terrorism
After the 3+3 format meeting on January 15, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Syrian Foreign Minister Esad Hasan Seybani held a joint press conference. The meeting also included Turkey’s Defense Minister Yasar Guler, MIT Chief Ibrahim Kalin, Syria’s Defense Minister Murhef Abu Kasra, and Intelligence Director Enes Hattab.
Fidan stated that Turkey is ready to provide operational support against ISIL and assist in managing ISIL camps and prisons.
He emphasized that lifting sanctions on Syria would speed up the country’s normalization and encourage millions of Syrians to return home. Fidan also announced that Turkey's Consulate General in Aleppo will reopen on January 20.
Syrian Foreign Minister Seybani emphasized that all Syrian lands should be unified under the central government and that Syria should no longer pose a threat to Turkey.
President Erdogan also received Seybani at the Presidential Complex.
Biden Removes Turkey from U.S. Sanctions Order on Syria
U.S. President Joe Biden revised the 2019 executive order signed by former President Donald Trump, which imposed sanctions on Turkey over Operation Peace Spring in Syria. The revised order reflects the current situation in Syria and no longer mentions Turkey.
In a statement to Congress, Biden said the circumstances in Syria have changed significantly since 2019, and the concerns over Turkey’s military operation are no longer valid. He added, "The new executive order makes minimal changes to the previous one."
Turkish Airlines to Resume Flights to Damascus on January 23
Turkish Airlines (THY) General Manager Bilal Eksi announced that flights to Damascus will start on January 23. THY will operate three round-trip flights per week in the initial phase.
However, Turkish Airlines announced on January 16 that it would not allow Israeli and Iranian nationals on its flights to Damascus. The airline stated on its website, "Following recent decisions by Syrian authorities, citizens of all countries, except Israel and Iran, are allowed to enter Syria."
Turkey Slams U.S. Decision on Arms Sales to Greek Cypriot Administration
Turkey strongly criticized the U.S. decision to approve arms sales and military training for the Greek Cypriot administration, calling it a "serious mistake."
The Turkish Foreign Ministry warned that this move would increase militarization in Cyprus during a sensitive period for the region and harm efforts to maintain stability. Ankara also urged the incoming U.S. administration to reconsider and reverse the decision.
US President Joe Biden issued a directive on January 15 that allows Cyprus to buy arms from the US government and acquire surplus American military equipment.
Turkey and Mongolia Sign 11 Key Agreements in Historic Visit
Turkey and Mongolia signed multiple bilateral agreements during Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh's visit to Ankara, marking the first visit by a Mongolian leader in over 20 years.
During a joint press conference in Ankara, President Erdogan and President Khurelsukh signed 11 wide-ranging agreements covering various sectors.
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