ANALYSIS
"Ankara Eyes Opportunities Amid Syria’s Turmoil" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
While it is clear that Ankara had prior knowledge of the Syrian opposition’s offensive, dubbed "Stopping the Aggression," it appears to have underestimated the scale and rapidity of the regime’s collapse in Aleppo. This unforeseen development, coupled with the Syrian Democratic Forces' (SDF) withdrawal from Tel Rifaat, will undoubtedly have implications for Turkey’s foreign policy. Ankara is now deliberating the situation, aiming to expand its influence in northern Syria, while mitigating the risk of backlash from Moscow and Tehran.
For Turkey, the sudden changes in the balance of power provide an opportunity to act against the SDF on the western bank of the Euphrates. Nevertheless, a Turkish military operation targeting Manbij is unlikely in the near term. However, a more limited offensive carried out by the Turkish-backed SNA in Manbij remains a possibility.
Efforts to normalize relations between Turkey and Syria now appear to be on hold as Ankara recalibrates its strategy. Given the fluidity of the situation on the ground, Turkey is unlikely to make decisive moves until the battle lines between opposition forces and Assad’s army stabilize.
"Turkish-American Relations in the Biden Era: A Pragmatic Stability" by Hasim Tekines, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Biden deliberately avoided cultivating such a personal relationship with Erdoğan, a significant departure from both his vice presidency and Trump’s overtures. In fact, Biden often made his low regard for Erdoğan clear, inviting him to the White House only during the final months of his presidency.
Biden’s presidency prioritized a steady, pragmatic approach to Ankara. Diplomatic efforts thrived at the institutional level, with advisors, diplomats, and officials maintaining open channels of communication. For instance, the crisis surrounding Sweden and Finland’s NATO bids—a significant geopolitical objective for Washington—was managed with notable patience and calmness.
Even on sensitive matters like the Gaza conflict, which held the potential to derail relations, both sides demonstrated restraint. Although Erdogan has sometimes criticized Biden for his support to Israel, Washington did not react to these statements seriously. Institutional diplomacy facilitated compartmentalization, ensuring that broader bilateral relations remained intact despite disagreements.
In hindsight, the Biden era may not have been transformative, but it was quietly successful. Despite Erdoğan’s inability to forge a personal relationship with Biden, Turkish-American relations remained functional and pragmatic. The lack of direct engagement at the leadership level was compensated for by the strength of institutional ties, ensuring that collaboration persisted even amidst disagreements.
This period of steady diplomacy gives way to the more unpredictable dynamics of a Trump presidency. Erdogan’s personal relationship with Trump is much better than Biden. Although the Turkish government seems quite enthusiastic about Trump, it can miss the Biden era’s stability.
"Turkey's clandestine 'space programme' in Somalia", The Somali Wire
In early 2024, Somali and international media sources reported that Ankara had already clinched a covert deal with Somalia and procured a strip of land north of Mogadishu, near the coastal town of Warsheikh, to establish a space science facility to develop and test-launch space vehicles and rockets. In November, credible reports further emerged suggesting the space programme is actually a clandestine military project to test a class of new intercontinental medium-range ballistic missiles, among them Tayfun and Cenk, developed by the part-state-owned Roketsan defence contractor.
Turkey's interest in using its outsized leverage in the Horn state to fast-track its space/ballistic programme comes as no surprise. Due to Somalia's geographic position on the equator, rockets can be launched with maximum angular momentum, which saves on both fuels and reduces launch costs.
"As Lebanon’s battlefield closes, Syria’s reignites. Why is Turkey opening Aleppo front now" by Ibrahim Hamidi, Al Arabiya
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan looks to be exploiting the weakened positions of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria, alongside Russia’s distraction with the war in Ukraine, to establish new dynamics on the ground. Ankara plays a pivotal role in northern Syria, providing military and intelligence support to Syrian factions and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Turkish soldiers, military outposts, and infrastructure are firmly embedded in the region.
The surprise attack looks to be aimed at pressuring Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has refused to meet the Turkish president unless his forces withdraw from Syrian territory. Erdogan could also be looking to encircle the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - mostly comprised of Syrian Kurds from the YPG - to strengthen his bargaining position ahead of Trump’s return to the US presidency.
The timing - just ahead of Trump’s return to the White House - worries the SDF. The group recalls his 2019 decision to withdraw some American forces from their areas, which facilitated advances by Turkish-backed forces, and they worry this could be repeated.
POLITICS
Trustee Appointed to Bahcesaray Municipality After Mayor’s Dismissal
The Interior Ministry dismissed Ayvaz Hazir, the DEM Party mayor of Bahcesaray district in Van, on November 29 and appointed District Governor Harun Arslanargun as a trustee.
Hazir’s removal follows a court ruling sentencing him to three years and 11 months in prison for “acting on behalf of an organization without being a member,” based on a case filed in 2015.
Hazir criticized the timing of the ruling, calling it suspicious that a nine-year-old case resulted in a sentence during his tenure as mayor.
New Welfare Party Leader Criticizes AK Party, Calls for Early Elections
On the 6th anniversary of his party's founding, New Welfare Party Chairman Fatih Erbakan criticized the AK Party for failing to meet the terms of their pre-election agreement.
Speaking to the press, Erbakan said Turkey has faced significant economic losses over the past 22 years and called for early elections in spring 2026. He announced his party would no longer align with the People’s Alliance or the AKP, stating, “We will enter the next elections independently with our candidate.”
Erbakan also voiced strong opposition to the release of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, his potential parole, and any parliamentary address by him.
PKK Reportedly Demands Regional Autonomy in New Resolution Talks
Discussions over a new resolution process are ongoing in Turkey following MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli's call for action. Journalist Mustafa Balbay reported that the outlawed PKK has demanded a federative structure and a local parliament in the region, which the government has rejected.
Balbay also claimed that PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan seeks formal documentation of government promises and an observer from a Western country to oversee the process.
Bahceli Calls Pro-Kurdish Party to Hold Direct Talks with Ocalan
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli, a key ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, called on November 26 for the pro-Kurdish DEM Party to initiate direct talks with Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the outlawed PKK.
“We expect face-to-face contact between Ocalan and the DEM Party to be made without delay, and we resolutely reiterate our call,” Bahceli said during a parliamentary meeting with his party’s lawmakers.
In response, DEM Party parliamentary group chairperson Gulistan Kilic Kocyigit announced that the party had submitted a petition to the Justice Ministry on November 26 to meet with Ocalan.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan backed Bahceli's call on November 27 to initiate direct discussions between the DEM Party and Ocalan. “We fully agree with Mr. Bahceli on every matter that serves the interests of our country and nation. We join his call,” Erdogan said during a parliamentary address.
Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunc confirmed that the ministry had received the DEM Party's petition requesting a meeting with Ocalan. Tunc stated that the ministry is reviewing the petition and will respond within a reasonable timeframe.
Government Tightens Deductions from Municipal Funds to Offset Debts
The Turkish government has implemented new measures to reduce public funds allocated to municipalities and their subsidiaries to offset outstanding debts, as outlined in a presidential decree published on November 27.
The decree expands the scope of deductions from municipalities' share of central tax revenues, including additional municipal subsidiaries and district municipalities under metropolitan municipalities.
CHP Deputy Chairman Gokan Zeybek criticized the decision, calling it “unlawful” and accusing the government of trying to push municipalities into a financial crisis. “This move targets the services municipalities provide to the people, not just their finances,” Zeybek said on social media.
CHP Leader Faces Investigation Over Criticism of Istanbul Chief Prosecutor
Authorities have launched an ex officio investigation against CHP leader Ozgur Ozel for his remarks targeting Istanbul Chief Prosecutor Akin Gurlek.
The prosecutor’s office announced on November 29 that Ozel’s comments, made during an earlier parliamentary speech and after visiting jailed Esenyurt Mayor Ahmet Ozer on November 29, constitute “insulting a public official” and “targeting individuals involved in counter-terrorism efforts.” An indictment is being prepared.
Ozel had labeled Gurlek the “executioner of the palace” in his speech and later accused him of “assassinating justice” and “applying enemy law.”
Government Orders Municipalities to Halt Daycare Operations
The Turkish government has ordered municipalities to close existing daycare centers and halt plans for new ones, following a directive from the Ministry of Environment. The ministry cited a 2007 Constitutional Court ruling that found municipal-run daycare centers unconstitutional.
In response, CHP leader Ozgur Ozel criticized the move, reminding the public of promises made by AKP mayoral candidates in major cities like Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir to establish 100 new daycare centers during the March elections.
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu also opposed the decision, warning that any attempt to close the centers would face resistance.
However, Turkey’s Presidential Communications Directorate announced that the government does not intend to shut down municipal daycare centers but aims to ensure they comply with legal regulations and their intended purpose.
ECONOMY
Turkey's Economy Grows 2.1% in Q3, Slips Into Technical Recession
Turkey’s economy grew by 2.1% year-on-year in the third quarter, falling short of expectations as demand weakened, particularly in the services sector, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat) on November 29.
Quarterly GDP declined by 0.2% on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, marking the second consecutive contraction and confirming a technical recession.
While services dragged GDP down, the construction and financial services sectors showed annual growth, offering some resilience amid economic challenges.
Fake Dollar Scandal Unfolds in Turkey, May Exceed $1 Billion
Turkey has raised its alert level after counterfeit U.S. dollar bills, believed to have been printed abroad, began circulating in the country. Banking sources revealed that counterfeit $50 and $100 bills have been detected, which are not being flagged by money-counting machines.
On November 28, Turkish authorities inspected currency exchanges and cash dispenser machines to prevent further spread of fake bills. Some banks have stopped accepting certain denominations of the bills. The Central Bank said it is working with judicial authorities to address the issue, and it has issued a report and guidance to banks after reviewing the counterfeit notes.
Sources revealed that fake dollar bills were smuggled into the country through the southeastern border. Sources claim the counterfeit bills, estimated to exceed $1 billion, were first circulated in tourist-heavy areas such as Antalya, Izmir, Gaziantep, and Istanbul. Early reports suggest fake dollars entered the market via exchange offices in these cities.
Authorities announced software updates for money-counting machines to detect the fakes, a process expected to take 7 to 10 days.
Turkey Prepares for Price Hikes on Fees and Taxes in 2025
Starting January 1, 2025, Turkish citizens will face higher costs for government services and fees after the Ministry of Treasury and Finance set a 43.9% re-evaluation rate. The decision, announced on November 27 in the Official Gazette, will increase the prices of passports, driver’s licenses, vehicle taxes, traffic fines, and more. President Erdogan can adjust the re-evaluation rate until December 31.
Turkey’s Otokar Secures $912.5M Deal with Romania for Armored Vehicles
Turkish defense company Otokar signed a $912.5 million agreement with Romania’s Romtehnica to supply 1,059 Cobra II 4x4 tactical wheeled light armored vehicles. Under the deal, announced on November 27, the first batch of 278 vehicles will be produced in Turkey, with the rest manufactured in Romania. Deliveries will start in late 2025 and continue in batches over five years.
Turkey's Central Bank Targets 21% Interest Rate by End of 2025
Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan announced plans to reduce the policy interest rate to 21% by the end of 2025. Speaking at the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) on November 27, Karahan highlighted improving inflation trends, though slower than expected. “With continued disinflation and eventual price stability, predictability will improve,” he stated. Karahan also projected 44% economic growth by the end of 2024.
World Bank Unveils $750 Million Power Upgrade Project
World Bank Turkey Director Humberto Lopez announced a $750 million project to modernize Turkey’s electricity transmission lines within six months, with plans for an additional $750 million investment in the future.
Lopez also highlighted a $5 billion financing agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) to support the transformation of Turkey’s industrial sector.
“Last year, we approved $2 billion for industrial projects and signed a $1 billion agreement with Turk Eximbank to help companies comply with carbon emission regulations,” Lopez added.
EBRD Investments in Turkey Reach €2.2 Billion This Year
Odile Renaud-Basso, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), announced that the bank’s investments in Turkey have reached €2.2 billion so far in 2024, exceeding €21 billion in total.
After meeting with President Erdogan and other officials, Renaud-Basso emphasized Turkey’s importance as a key market for the EBRD. Discussions focused on supporting strategic projects and policy goals and enhancing investment opportunities in the country.
“We’ve already signed €2.2 billion in investments this year, and with time left before year-end, we expect to approach last year’s record of €2.5 billion,” she said.
Turkey Increases Payment Threshold for Goods and Services
The Ministry of Treasury and Finance's Revenue Administration has issued a new "Tax Procedure Law General Communiqué," published in the Official Gazette on November 30.
The new rule raises the payment threshold for goods and services from 7,000 to 30,000 lira, requiring consumers to pay through banks and financial institutions for transactions above this amount.
HUMAN RIGHTS
ECtHR Notifies Turkey of 1,000 New Applications Over ByLock Convictions
The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) informed Ankara on November 25 about 1,000 new applications related to convictions for membership in the Gulen movement based on the use of the ByLock smartphone app.
The notification includes five cases—Kilicarslan v. Turkey, Celebi v. Turkey, Turkyilmaz v. Turkey, Kuzucu v. Turkey, and Basogul v. Turkey—each with 199 applicants. These cases, submitted between 2018 and 2023, involve convictions for terrorism due to alleged membership in the Gulen movement.
231 Detained in Raids Across 30 Provinces
The Ministry of Interior announced that 231 people were detained during house raids in 30 provinces on November 26. Authorities conducted operations in cities including Diyarbakir, Ankara, Istanbul, and Mardin, targeting politicians, rights activists, journalists, and artists. The detainees are accused of links to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), according to Minister Yerlikaya.
Among those detained was DEM Party Diyarbakir Kayapinar Municipality Co-Mayor Cengiz Dundar, who was taken into custody following a raid on his home.
EU Rapporteur Criticizes Turkey Over Prosecution of Teenagers on Terrorism Charges
During the 81st EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee debate, Nacho Sanchez Amor, the European Parliament’s rapporteur on Turkey, condemned the erosion of democratic standards in Turkey and urged the government to meet EU accession benchmarks.
Amor strongly criticized the Turkish government for prosecuting 14-year-old girls on terrorism charges, referencing a recent case.
“You are prosecuting 14-year-old girls on terrorism charges,” Amor said, citing an instance where a judge questioned a teenager about studying with her neighbor.
In May 2024, Turkish authorities detained 14 high school students aged 13 to 17 for alleged ties to the Gulen movement. The indictment cited everyday actions like attending study groups, going to the movies, and using food delivery services as evidence.
21 Politicians Sentenced to Prison Over Terrorism Charges
21 politicians were sentenced to 6 years and 3 months in prison for charges related to "membership in an organization" and "spreading propaganda" by the Istanbul court. Among the accused were members of the Democratic Regions Party (DBP), Peoples' Democratic Congress (HDK), and Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party).
However, the trial of DBP Co-Chair Çigdem Kilicgun Ucar was suspended due to her legislative immunity. 13 defendants were acquitted.
Turkey Considers Social Media Ban for Kids Under 13
Turkish authorities are exploring measures, including a potential ban, to regulate smartphone and social media use among children under 13, the Information and Communication Technologies Authority (BTK) announced.
Abdulkerim Gun, BTK's deputy chairperson, discussed the proposal with a parliamentary commission, citing international examples like Florida, where children under 13 are prohibited from using social media.
On November 28, Australia’s Senate also banned children under 16 from social media, following strong support from its House of Representatives.
Kurdish Poet Ilhan Sami Comak Freed After 30 Years in Prison
A Turkish court ordered the release of Kurdish poet Ilhan Sami Comak on November 26 after more than 30 years behind bars, making him one of Turkey's longest-held political prisoners.
Comak was released on the evening of November 26 after spending 30 years, three months, and six days in prison.
Comak, now 51, was arrested in 1994 at 21 while a university student in Istanbul. He was sentenced to life in prison for attempting to establish an autonomous Kurdish state.
In 2007, the European Court of Human Rights ruled his trial was unlawful. During his imprisonment, Comak published eight poetry books and became an honorary member of PEN.
Turkish National Indicted in Germany for Alleged Spying
German federal prosecutors announced on November 29 that they had indicted a Turkish national, identified as Mehmet K., for allegedly spying on individuals linked to the Gulen movement. The suspect, who is not in custody, reportedly contacted Turkey's police and intelligence service through anonymous letters, prosecutors said.
Opposition Lawmaker Exposes Sale of Turkish Citizens' Personal Data Online
A senior opposition lawmaker, Ozgur Karabat of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), revealed in a viral video that the sensitive personal data of millions of Turkish citizens is being sold online for as little as $5.
Karabat detailed that data packages priced at 200, 500, and 1,200 Turkish lira ($5, $14, and $34) provide access to private information, including full addresses. “This is an unimaginable breach of privacy,” he stated in the video.
He criticized the government for failing to protect citizens’ data, urged the Ministry of Interior to respond, and called for stronger data protection measures to prevent further breaches.
FOREIGN POLICY
Syrian Rebel Groups Launch Offensive Towards Aleppo
On November 28, Turkish security sources said Syrian rebel groups launched a “limited offensive” towards Aleppo to counter Syrian government attacks on civilians in Idlib.
Since November 27, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied forces have made rapid territorial gains, advancing towards Aleppo's outskirts. While some Turkey-backed Syrian National Army groups joined the offensive, most have not participated.
Turkey attempted to halt the operation to avoid escalating tensions, but efforts to stop airstrikes on Idlib by Russia and Syria were unsuccessful, a senior Turkish security source said. The operation aims to restore the Idlib de-escalation zone agreed upon in 2019, the source added.
Russian media outlet Tsargrad TV harshly criticized Turkish President Erdogan over recent developments in Syria. Tsargrad’s headline read, "Erdogan tricked Putin: Syria under fire, Kremlin silent, Turkish President in Putin’s palm has chosen the path of treason again."
The channel accused Erdogan of benefiting from the conflict, stalling Russian President Putin on disarming jihadists in Idlib, and claimed that the U.S. was behind the situation. The commentary also implied that Turkey has been playing both sides, seeking to maintain its position amid the chaos.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held phone calls with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts on November 30 to express concerns about the escalating hostilities in Syria.
Lavrov and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan both expressed serious concern and emphasized the need to coordinate efforts to stabilize the situation, according to a statement from Russia's foreign ministry.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on December 1, emphasizing Turkey’s opposition to developments that could increase instability in Syria. Fidan stated that Ankara supports reducing tensions and stressed the need to conclude the political process between the Syrian regime and the opposition to achieve peace. Fidan also said Turkey will not tolerate terrorist activities targeting its citizens or Syrian civilians.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will visit Turkey on December 2 after his visit to Syria to discuss the escalating situation in Syria.
Turkey Seeks Waiver from U.S. Sanctions to Continue Russian Gas Payments
Turkey is in talks with the United States and Russia to secure a sanctions waiver allowing payments to Gazprombank for Russian natural gas imports, which account for over 50% of its pipeline supplies.
New U.S. sanctions on Gazprombank, imposed last week, have created payment challenges for Turkey. "These sanctions will affect Turkey. If we cannot pay, we cannot buy the goods. The foreign ministry is in talks," Turkish Energy Minister Bayraktar said on November 25.
A Turkish official said that Turkish and Russian officials, including representatives from foreign, trade, and finance ministries as well as central banks, met on November 25 to assess the sanctions' impact on energy trade.
Turkey Cuts F-16 Modernization Kits from U.S. Deal
Turkey has scaled back its planned $23 billion F-16 acquisition package from the U.S., opting to cancel the purchase of 79 modernization kits for its existing fleet, Defense Minister Yasar Guler announced on November 26.
During a parliamentary hearing, Guler explained that Turkey paid $1.4 billion for the procurement of 40 F-16 Block-70 Viper jets. However, the modernization kits were excluded because Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS) can handle these upgrades domestically, he said. The deal will cost Turkey approximately $7 billion. Guler also reiterated Turkey’s interest in rejoining the F-35 program and acquiring 40 new F-35 jets.
Turkey Captures Suspects in Murder of Rabbi Kogan, Extradites Them to UAE
Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) and police forces have captured three suspects involved in the murder of Israeli-Moldovan rabbi Tzvi Kogan, according to Turkish security sources. The suspects were then extradited to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where the crime took place.
Rabbi Kogan, who ran a kosher market in Dubai, was killed over the weekend. After identifying the suspects—three Uzbek nationals—the UAE authorities requested Turkey’s assistance to apprehend them. MIT tracked the suspects’ flight records and launched an operation when they arrived in Istanbul.
Turkey Hosts Libyan Military Delegation for Peace Talks
Turkey’s National Defence Ministry welcomed a military delegation from Libya’s 5+5 Joint Military Commission in Ankara. The Commission was also received by Defence Minister Yasar Guler.
In a statement on November 28, the ministry said the discussions focused on further steps to promote peace, stability, and security in Libya.
Pope Francis Announces Plans to Visit Iznik for Historic Anniversary
Pope Francis announced on November 28 that he plans to visit Turkey's Iznik next year to mark the 1700th anniversary of the First Ecumenical Council of Nicaea.
"During the Holy Year, we will also celebrate the anniversary of the first great Ecumenical Council. I plan to go there," the pope said during a theological committee event.
Turkey and Oman Sign 10 Agreements to Boost Cooperation
Turkish President Erdogan and Omani Sultan Haitham bin Tariq signed 10 agreements on November 28 during the sultan’s first visit to Turkey.
The agreements include a Memorandum of Understanding on collaboration in agriculture, livestock, fisheries, and water. Erdogan announced plans to increase Turkey’s trade volume with Oman to $5 billion, highlighting the potential for stronger ties.
He also noted that energy cooperation would reach a new level starting in 2025, with the initiation of liquefied natural gas supplies from Oman.
Erdogan and NATO Chief Rutte Discuss Security Challenges in Ankara
Turkish President Erdogan met NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on November 25 in Ankara to address the alliance's pressing security issues.
Rutte, visiting Ankara for the first time since becoming NATO chief on October 1, held talks with Erdogan at the presidential palace. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Defense Minister Yasar Guler also attended the meeting, as confirmed by the Turkish presidency.
Rutte shared details of the visit on social media, stating that discussions focused on “collective security challenges,” including terrorism, the Ukraine war, and the Middle East crisis. Additionally, Fidan held separate talks with Rutte, according to the Turkish Foreign Ministry.
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