ANALYSIS
"Turkish Opposition's Paralyzing Detente with Erdogan" by Hasim Tekines, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
In the highly polarized context of Turkish politics, such contacts provide opportunities for compromise and normalization but so far it has fallen short of meeting expectations. AKP-CHP détente has not done any favor for thousands of political prisoners, except for a few former generals who were close to the CHP. Özel may convince Erdogan to release a few other high-profile detainees, like Osman Kavala. Yet, the cases of thousands of others are not even on the table.
As a matter of fact, the logic behind the AKP-CHP rapprochement is hardly a quest for a return to democracy and human rights. For Erdogan, the dialogue with the CHP leader allows him to gain some time for economic troubles and to balance against the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
This tight regime, which mainly relies on high taxes and interest rates, badly hurts ordinary people and causes discontent. In this context, Erdogan has softened the opposition discourse by initiating a political dialogue with the CHP.
Second, Erdogan’s détente with Özel enables him to balance against the MHP. Özel believes that an AKP-CHP rapprochement could potentially dismantle the AKP-MHP power coalition, thereby creating an opportunity for the CHP.
Instead of conflict, dialogue can protect CHP gains in recent elections. After all, the economic crisis is already doing its worst for the government. So, CHP leadership thinks, the opposition should provide good governance with municipalities while waiting for crisis in the economy to drive Erdogan out of office.
AKP-CHP détente seems to be another phase in Turkish politics that does not necessarily mean democratization. Erdogan is buying time to manage the economy and social content. He also uses the CHP to balance against the MHP. CHP, on the other hand, wants to maintain its gains. If the détente dissolves the AKP-MHP coalition, it would be the cherry on the cake for Özel.
"Flexing its Muscle, Turkey Is Spreading Its Influence in Africa" by Simon Marks and Mohamed Sheikh Nor, Bloomberg
Turkey, seeking to extend its influence in Africa and strengthen energy security, will send the 86-meter long research vessel Oruc Reis to explore offshore oil blocks belonging to Somalia next month.
The move, confirmed by Mohamed Hashi, director of Somalia's petroleum ministry, could help diversify Turkey's crude supply and is part of Ankara's steady quest to boost ties in a region where China, Russia, Gulf states and the West also vie for sway.
"Africa is interesting for Turkey because it's a point where it can experiment with all its newfound activist foreign policy tools and objectives," said Batu Coşkun, an Ankara-based research fellow at the Libyan Sadeq Institute think tank. "It's soft power on the one hand, such as aid, education and Turkish language centers. And trade and economic relations on the other hand," he said.
"For Turkey, Somalia offers a geo-strategic location to advance its influence in the Horn of Africa and Indian Ocean arenas," said Omar Mahmood, a senior analyst for East Africa for the International Crisis Group. "The engagement with Somalia has served both a test case and a stepping stone for Turkey's overall strategy to deepen diplomatic, commercial and security ties across the African continent."
Increasingly, Ankara's dealings with African nations are combining cooperation in the fields of intelligence and defense with deals in the mining and energy sectors.
Such inroads are made easier by the centralized leadership style of Erdogan, according to Coşkun, the analyst, who noted the lack of export controls on Turkish military products. "If Erdogan signs off on the deal it simply goes through," he said. "It's not like the US congress which scrutinizes every sale."
"While Turkey's air power is being redesigned" by Serhat Guvenc, Medyascope
The "Steel Dome," announced as a measure to strengthen Turkey's air defense, was one of the most debated topics last week. An air power strategy that has largely focused on offensive capabilities is now shifting towards a mixed approach that includes defensive measures.
If the Eurofighter purchase is realized, Turkey will be able to re-establish the balance of air power over the Aegean. The force structure, which was disrupted after being removed from the F-35 project, will be restored with the inclusion of two multi-role combat aircraft. The recent events in the US Congress regarding the F-16 order suggest that the US may no longer be a reliable weapons supplier for Ankara. Consequently, it is unlikely that Ankara will be as eager as before to acquire American weapons. In this respect, the Eurofighter offers a less challenging alternative.
It is not yet clear whether the domestic "Steel Dome" system will be integrated with NATO's air and ballistic missile defense system, although this is technically possible.
In today's world, it is challenging for a medium-sized country like Turkey to establish and operate a highly complex and costly integrated air defense system independently. However, the need for such a system is undeniable.
It is also unrealistic to expect these systems to work flawlessly; there will always be a few missiles or UAVs that reach their targets. Therefore, the capability for punishment-based deterrence should be reconsidered and designed to complement and supplement the defense-based deterrence. In this respect, the most rational solution seems to be the Eurofighter.
"Turkey boosts military footprint in Qatar in shadow of Trump's potential return" by Ali Bakir, Amway.media
Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani visited Ankara earlier this month, where he met with Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Erdogan informed the Emir that Turkey is committed to strengthening military ties with Qatar, among other aspects of the bilateral relationship, and that steps taken in this regard would further enhance solidarity between the two countries.
Mindful of President Erdogan's statements on August 8, it ought to be noted that Turkish Defense Ministry official Zeki Aktürk two weeks earlier announced that Ankara is sending naval and air force capabilities to be deployed permanently in Qatar, in accordance with the defense pact between the two nations.
Obviously, Qatar—by hosting a Turkish base—still has an advantage over the UAE in its relationship with Turkey. The recent deployment of Turkish military assets in the gas-rich nation will reassure Doha even more regarding any perceived policy changes or unfavorable regional and international developments.
Although Turkey's new deployment of military assets in Doha is presented as a means to share common knowledge, experience, and skills through military education, training, and exercises, it should be seen from a broader perspective. A potential comeback of Trump could undermine the Iranian-Saudi normalization process, encourage intra-Gulf conflicts, increase the likelihood of a potential war with Iran over its nuclear program, and boost support for Israel's war on Gaza.
Indeed, among experts and observers, there is an increasing belief in Ankara that diplomacy—if not backed by military power—will not result in anything favorable. In this sense, supporting partners and allies in times of uncertainty would not only boost bilateral ties and affirm Ankara's credibility, but also enable Turkey to influence regional dynamics in a favorable way.
POLITICS
Aksener to Sue Kılıcdaroglu Over Betrayal Accusation
Meral Aksener, former leader of the nationalist Good Party, announced she would sue her former political ally, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the ex-leader of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), over his comments accusing her of betraying their political alliance, according to the Sözcü daily.
Aksener's decision to file the lawsuit comes after Kilicdaroglu recently claimed she had betrayed their opposition bloc, the "Table of Six," following her visit to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last June.
In a recent interview, Kilicdaroglu remarked that Aksener should not have "walked out of the alliance and returned" after the six parties had agreed on a joint plan to govern Turkey and restore the parliamentary system.
"When I later saw Ms. Aksener at the [presidential] palace, I was not surprised, to be honest. Unfortunately, we experience betrayal in these lands," Kilicdaroglu said.
Two Opposition Lawmakers and 13 Mayors Join Ruling Party
On August 14, President Erdogan welcomed two opposition lawmakers and 13 mayors into his ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) during a celebration in Ankara marking the 23rd anniversary of the party's founding.
The new AKP members include Seyithan Issiz and Ahmet Ersagun Yucel, who resigned from the nationalist Good Party after being elected to the Parliament in May 2023.
The mayors joining the AKP are a mix of independents and members from various opposition parties: four are independents, seven are from the Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP), one is from the Good Party, and one is from the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) which the AKP accuses of terrorism due to alleged links with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). All the new mayors are district mayors from various provinces.
CHP Appeals to Constitutional Court to Block Controversial Animal Protection Law
On August 15, Turkey's main opposition, the Republican People's Party (CHP), filed a petition with the Constitutional Court to annul a recently passed animal protection law. Critics, including the CHP, argue that the law could lead to the euthanasia of many dogs.
During a news conference at party headquarters, CHP deputy group chairman Gokhan Gunaydin called for the court to cancel all provisions of the law to prevent the inhumane treatment of animals.
The law, approved by Turkey's Parliament last month, aims to gather stray dogs and place them in shelters. The CHP has repeatedly stated that municipalities it controls will not enforce the law, citing concerns that overcrowded shelters will lead to the dogs' suffering and deaths.
On the same day, Agriculture Minister Ibrahim Yumakli warned that municipalities refusing to implement the law or allocate funds for shelters and dog care would face sanctions.
Fistfight Erupts in Turkish Parliament, Injuring Two Opposition Lawmakers
Two opposition lawmakers were injured in a fistfight that erupted during a tense session in the Turkish Parliament on August 16. The brawl occurred as lawmakers discussed the case of jailed lawmaker Can Atalay, who had been stripped of his parliamentary status.
Alpay Ozalan, a lawmaker from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and a former footballer, attacked Ahmet Şık, a deputy from the Workers' Party of Turkey (TIP), while Sik was giving a speech.
Gulistan Kocyigit from the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) and Okan Konuralp from the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) were injured while trying to break up the fight.
In his speech, Şık accused AK Party lawmakers of being part of the "biggest terrorist organization" in Turkey and blamed them for "bringing down the state with the dynasty mafia."
Şık also stated that it was unsurprising for the AK Party and its leader, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to label Atalay a "terrorist," as they often use that term for anyone outside their party.
After a series of interrupted discussions, the motion for a general meeting proposed by opposition parties was rejected by AK Party deputies. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş ended the session, announcing that the Parliament will reconvene on October 1.
ECONOMY
Bank of Korea and Turkish Central Bank Renew $1.68 Billion Currency Swap Agreement
On August 12, South Korea's finance ministry announced that the Bank of Korea and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey have renewed their currency swap agreement. The deal, valued at up to 2.3 trillion won ($1.68 billion), will be effective for three years.
Turkey's Central Government Budget Records $2.9 Billion Deficit in July
Turkey's central government budget recorded a 96.8 billion lira ($2.9 billion) deficit in July, according to figures released by the Treasury and Finance Ministry on August 15.
Budget revenue for July was 730.9 billion lira ($22.2 billion), up 44.9% from June, while expenditures increased by 81.6% to 827.7 billion lira ($25.1 billion).
For the first seven months of the year, the budget showed a total deficit of 844 billion lira ($26.5 billion). During this period, revenue reached 4.6 trillion lira ($143.4 billion), while expenditures totalled 5.4 trillion lira ($170 billion).
Government Plans Maximum 20% Raise for Employees and Retirees Next Year
Erdal Saglam, a columnist for the news site 10Haber, reported that the government is planning a maximum 20 percent raise for employees and retirees at the beginning of the year. Saglam claimed that Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan mentioned this during a meeting with foreign investors in London last month. Karahan said the government's calculations are based on a 15-20 percent raise for the new year.
Karahan also noted that the inflation target for 2025 is set at 14 percent, with the upper limit of the inflation corridor at 21 percent. He told investors, "We are making our calculations accordingly, with New Year's raises expected to be 15 percent, at most 20 percent."
Saglam also pointed out that the Central Bank's market inflation expectation report, released on August 16, indicates that the improvement in expectations has slowed down, with inflation expectations for the end of this year rising and not expected to drop below 20 percent.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkish Court Orders Arrest for Woman Who Criticized Instagram Ban
On August 12, a Turkish court ordered the arrest of a woman charged with inciting hatred and insulting the president after she criticized a ban on Instagram. In a YouTube interview posted last week, while the app was still blocked, the woman criticized President Tayyip Erdogan and those who supported the ban, saying, "This is wrong. The president cannot ban Instagram as he wishes."
The arrest came after Turkey's broadcasting watchdog, RTUK, criticized street interviews on social media, claiming they "manipulate public opinion."
Turkish Prison Bans Kurdish Language During Inmate Phone Calls
A prison in Turkey's Sirnak province banned inmates from speaking Kurdish during phone calls with their families.
Fadil Tay, a Sirnak Bar Association's Human Rights Commission lawyer, reported that the prison's new warden imposed the restriction. Tay condemned the ban as a violation of inmates' rights and unconstitutional.
The ban on Kurdish is part of a broader pattern of rights violations at the prison. Inmates also face restrictions such as being unable to hug family members during visits and legal representatives being prohibited from bringing pens and documents into the facility.
The Sirnak Bar Association said it plans to investigate these issues on August 13 and take legal action.
FOREIGN POLICY
Russia Trains Navy to Target Strategic Sites in Turkey, Leaked Documents Reveal
Russia has reportedly trained its navy to target five sites in Turkey, along with other strategic locations in Europe and Asia, with nuclear-capable missiles in the event of a conflict with NATO, according to secret documents obtained by the Financial Times.
The leaked documents, dating from 2008 to 2014, detail plans for missile strikes against NATO member states, including Turkey, in the event of a war.
The maps in the files highlight specific targets in Turkey, particularly in the Marmara, Black Sea, and Central Anatolia regions. These targets include the Golcuk Naval Base, a nearby refinery, naval forces stationed in the northern regions, several key air force bases, and the command headquarters in Ankara.
The report notes that Russian military doctrine suggests using nuclear strikes at the outset of a conflict to gain a strategic advantage.
Turkish Airstrikes in Northern Iraq Kill 17 PKK Members
Turkey's military conducted airstrikes in northern Iraq, killing 17 members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), the defense ministry reported on August 12. The operation was part of Turkey's ongoing cross-border campaign, known as Operation Claw-Lock, targeting the PKK in Iraq.
No Agreement Reached in Somalia-Ethiopia Port Deal Talks
A second round of Turkish-mediated talks between Somalia and Ethiopia over a port deal that Addis Ababa signed with Somaliland ended without an agreement on August 13. However, both Turkey and the ministers from Somalia and Ethiopia expressed optimism about the progress made.
Instead of direct talks, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan acted as a mediator, shuttling between the Ethiopian and Somali foreign ministers in Ankara.
Fidan noted that the number of issues discussed in this second round had significantly increased compared to the first, with "convergence on some major principles." He also announced that a third round of talks is scheduled for September 17, with the goal of reaching a "sustainable and viable" agreement.
On August 14, Somalia and Egypt signed a defense cooperation deal, announced by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud during his official visit to Cairo with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
The same day, Somaliland reaffirmed its commitment to the deal it signed with Addis Ababa, stating it will not accept Turkey's proposal, which aims to interfere directly with the agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia.
Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi warned Turkey and Egypt, stating, "Your efforts to deploy troops to Somalia and obstruct Somaliland's recognition are ultimately futile." "Despite repeated efforts, Somaliland remains steadfast in its pursuit of independence, frustrating Turkey's regional ambitions," Abdi said.
Palestinian President Meets with Turkish President, Addresses Turkish Parliament
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas met with Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on August 14, a day after he visited Moscow. According to Erdogan's office, the two leaders discussed the ongoing conflict in Palestinian territories and explored steps toward a permanent ceasefire and peace during the privately held meeting.
The next day, Abbas addressed an extraordinary session of Turkey's Parliament, where he announced plans to visit Gaza and Jerusalem in protest of Israel's actions. In his 46-minute speech, Abbas criticized the United States for prolonging the conflict by supporting Israel and vetoing UN resolutions. He also urged the international community to hold Israel accountable for war crimes and violations of international law.
Speaking after Abbas, Turkish parliament speaker Numan Kurtulmus praised his speech, saying it presented the truth about the Palestinian cause, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech at the U.S. Congress on July 24.
Turkey and Iraq Sign MoU on Military and Security Cooperation
Turkey and Iraq signed a memorandum of understanding on military, security, and counter-terrorism cooperation, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced on August 15 after two days of high-level talks in Ankara. The agreement came after the fourth round of meetings between Ankara and Baghdad under the ongoing dialogue mechanism.
Fidan stated that the agreement includes plans to establish joint coordination and training centers, which will enhance cooperation between the two countries. A Turkish diplomatic source confirmed that a Joint Security Coordination Centre will be set up in Baghdad, along with a Joint Training and Cooperation Centre in Bashiqa.
Israeli Foreign Minister Criticizes Erdogan Over Alleged Haniyeh Funds in Turkey
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz, who has been exchanging verbal attacks with Turkish officials over his criticisms of President Erdogan, has once again targeted Erdogan. On August 16, Katz alleged on X that a conflict erupted between Erdogan and the sons of Haniyeh during their meeting on August 10 in Istanbul. The dispute reportedly arose after Haniyeh's sons demanded the $3 billion held in Turkish bank accounts under their father's name, which Erdogan allegedly refused to release.
Katz questioned how Haniyeh accumulated this alleged wealth and how Erdogan is connected to the funds.
These accusations prompted a strong response from the Turkish Foreign Ministry, which dismissed them as "slander" aimed at spreading disinformation against Haniyeh and Erdogan.
"These lies, which aim to divert attention from the genocide taking place in Gaza, will not hinder our support for the Palestinian people," the ministry said.
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