ANALYSIS
"The Intelligence Community’s Growing Hold on Turkey’s Foreign Ministry" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Under the leadership of Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Turkey's Ministry of Foreign Affairs is seeing a noteworthy shift, with a growing number of senior positions now occupied by National Intelligence Organization (MIT) officers and political appointees. This transformation is reshaping the ministry’s traditional role, aligning it more closely with intelligence and security functions than with conventional diplomatic practices.
Fidan, who served as the head of MIT before his appointment as foreign minister in 2023, has brought several MIT officers into influential positions within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Notably, of the 32 general directorates within the ministry, 16 are reportedly led by individuals with MIT backgrounds, with only 11 headed by the career diplomats and 5 by the political appointees. This shift in personnel structure suggests that an intelligence mindset is gaining priority within the ministry’s core leadership.
The restructuring in the ministry includes an increase in the number of deputy ministers, rising from three to five, with three of these positions filled by political appointees. These political deputies now oversee critical portfolios, including the Middle East and Asia. The pro-government think tank SETA (Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research) holds the lion’s share of top positions in the ministry, with two deputy ministers. One of them, Nuh Yılmaz, had served in MIT with Fidan before following him to the Foreign Ministry.
It is common for foreign ministries to have officials with intelligence backgrounds involved in diplomatic activities or holding senior positions, and vice versa. Nonetheless, in Turkey, nearly half of senior positions are now filled by former intelligence operatives. On the lower levels, anecdotal reports also indicate that intelligence officers in Turkish embassies now wield significant influence, much like the military attachés of the 1990s, further diminishing the ministry’s diplomatic function.
The Foreign Ministry’s discourse and approach have become more security-oriented in recent years, as reflected in its strategic plans and its suspected role in transnational repression. Turkish embassies have allegedly been involved in identifying, surveilling, and, in some cases, even facilitating the abduction of individuals viewed as opponents of the Turkish government, such as incidents in Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, and Switzerland.
By prioritizing intelligence over diplomacy, Turkey risks narrowing its foreign policy toolkit. This will further undermine Turkey’s diplomatic capabilities.
"Can Trump's return to White House be an opportunity for enhancing US-Turkey ties?" by Begum Donmez Ersoz, VOA
With Trump’s January return to the White House, analysts told VOA that although there may be opportunities for more cooperation in some areas, they don’t expect major changes.
James Jeffrey, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Turkey from 2008 to 2010, sees Ukraine as one area with potential for cooperation. Referring to Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine, Jeffrey says Turkey could play a role in negotiating a cease-fire, making both sides “well-aligned for a productive relationship.”
Alan Makovsky, a senior fellow for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress, also believes Trump’s priority to end the war in Ukraine creates a significant opportunity for Erdogan.
Trump nominated Marco Rubio, a Republican senator from Florida, for secretary of state. Rubio was one of the strongest opponents of a U.S. pullout from Syria at the time.
Anyone who thought that Trump's election meant that the U.S. would soon be withdrawing from Syria would certainly have to rethink that view in light of the Rubio appointment. I think that makes it unlikely that we will withdraw from Syria,” Makovksy said.
“A permanent solution is that they [the S-400s] go away, they're sold to somebody else. I would like to have a solution, but technically, I don't think there is one," Jeffrey said.
Makovsky called Turkey’s return to the F-35 program unlikely in the near term. “If they completely get rid of the S-400s, really give up possession as the law requires, there could be a reasonable chance for F-35,” he told VOA.
POLITICS
Erdogan and Bahceli Meet to Discuss Recent Developments
On November 14, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Chairman Devlet Bahceli met at the Presidential Palace in Beştepe, the first meeting after Bahceli called the leader of the outlawed PKK, Ocalan.
The meeting lasted about an hour, but no statements were made afterward.
Later that day, President Erdogan's Chief Advisor, Mehmet Ucum, said Erdogan was aware of Bahceli's call to Ocalan. "There is a high level of harmony between President Erdogan and Bahceli on state policies. It is provocative to suggest discord between the two on an issue where the state has taken such an initiative," Ucum added.
President Erdogan shared details of his meeting with Bahceli during a session with top party members on November 15.
"We discussed all matters thoroughly with Mr. Devlet and put everything on the table. We reached good agreements on both domestic and foreign policy, and we are in full accord," Erdogan said.
Prosecutors Launch Investigations into Spending by Istanbul and Ankara Municipalities
The Istanbul chief prosecutor's office has launched an investigation into claims of irregular expenditures at public events organized by the Istanbul municipality. On November 13, the office announced it would examine the allegations to assess potential financial harm to the public.
Meanwhile, the Ankara chief prosecutor's office has opened a separate inquiry into two concerts held by the Ankara municipality during Republic Day celebrations on October 29.
On November 14, Imamoglu addressed the investigations into two municipalities, saying, "The concert fee that has been discussed for days isn't even the cost of a single flight on the planes in the Palace's inventory."
Imamoglu also stated that the inspections against the two municipalities were part of an operation carried out through the judiciary, with orders and instructions from political figures, labelling it as judicial harassment.
Turkey Submits Motion to Lift Immunity for Five Lawmakers
The Turkish government has presented a motion to Parliament requesting the removal of legislative immunity for five lawmakers, potentially opening the door to legal proceedings against them.
The motion targets Cengiz Candar, Sabahat Erdogan Saritas, and Salihe Aydeniz from the pro-Kurdish People’s Democracy and Equality Party (DEM Party), Burak Akburak from the nationalist Good Party, and independent deputy Yuksel Arslan.
The specific allegations behind the motion have not been disclosed. Parliament is expected to review the files following established procedures in the coming days.
MHP Proposes New Criteria for Parliamentary and Mayoral Candidacies
MHP Deputy Chairman Feti Yildiz criticized the DEM Party for nominating candidates for parliamentary and mayoral elections despite ongoing legal cases against them. He argued that the Supreme Election Board could not reject these candidacies due to the lack of final court rulings.
To address this issue, Yildiz announced plans to introduce new candidacy criteria, aiming to prevent individuals with ongoing legal cases, even without convictions, from running for parliamentary or mayoral positions. He said the party would submit a bill to Parliament to formalize this proposal.
DEM Party Holds Meetings with Political Parties to Discuss Kurdish Issue
The DEM Party has started a series of meetings with political parties and civil society organizations to discuss solutions for the Kurdish issue. The first meeting took place on November 14 with Future Party Chairman Ahmet Davutoglu and the Left Party delegation.
After the meeting with Davutoglu, DEM Party Co-Chair Tulay Hatimogullari stated, "Let’s do our part for an honourable peace. Let’s all build peace on a democratic foundation." She also called for joint efforts in Parliament to eliminate the trustee law, proposing to submit a bill.
A planned meeting between DEM Party Co-Chairs Tulay Hatimogullari and Tuncer Bakirhan and Felicity Party Chairman Temel Karamollaoglu, scheduled for November 15, was postponed due to Karamollaoglu's sudden illness. The meeting will be rescheduled for next week.
DEM Party Co-Chairs Hatimogullari and Bakirhan also met with DEVA Party Chairman Ali Babacan on November 16. After the meeting, a joint press conference was held at the DEVA Party Headquarters.
Babacan expressed support for any opportunity to resolve the Kurdish issue, stating, "We would support even a 5-10 percent chance of a solution for a peace process."
Bakirhan said they aim for discussions to lead to a democratic resolution of the Kurdish issue and will back such efforts.
Turkish Military Academy Valedictorian Faces Expulsion for Secularist Slogan
Ebru Eroglu, a valedictorian of the Turkish Military Academy and now a lieutenant in the Turkish Armed Forces, may face expulsion for chanting a secularist slogan at her graduation ceremony on August 30. During the event, where she received her diploma from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Eroglu led the chant, “We are Mustafa Kemal’s soldiers.”
The incident triggered disciplinary action, with Eroglu and another graduate, Lieutenant Izzet Talip Akarsu, accused of violating Article 20, Section C of the Turkish Armed Forces Disciplinary Code. The rule prohibits acts considered harmful to the state and military's reputation.
Eroglu has been notified of her potential expulsion, while Akarsu was reportedly waiting for notification.
Turkey’s Election Council Denies Plans for Electronic Voting System
Turkey's Supreme Election Council (YSK) President Ahmet Yener reportedly stated on November 12 that preparations for an electronic voting system are complete, leaving the final decision to Parliament.
Journalist Sinan Burhan shared Yener’s comments during a broadcast, quoting him as saying, “We have completed all preparations for an electronic voting system.”
However, the YSK later announced that no current studies are underway regarding electronic voting methods for domestic elections.
ECONOMY
Central Bank Reserves Drop by $2.3 Billion in One Week
Turkish Central Bank reported a decrease in its gross foreign exchange reserves for the week of November 8. Reserves fell by $884 million, reaching $92.12 billion, down from $93.01 billion on November 1.
Gold reserves also dropped by $1.43 billion, falling from $66.61 billion to $65.19 billion.
As a result, the total reserves of the Central Bank decreased by $2.31 billion, dropping from $159.62 billion to $157.31 billion.
Credit Card Debt in Turkey Sees Dramatic Increase, Spending Rises by 64%
Individual credit card spending in Turkey has risen significantly, but the rate of outstanding receivables has surged even faster. According to data from the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK), as of November 8, 2024, the rate of outstanding receivables on individual credit cards has jumped by 111.3% and reached 2.81%, up from 1.33% in the same week last year.
In numerical terms, the total amount of outstanding receivables has soared from 13.51 billion Turkish lira last year to 46.86 billion lira, reflecting a 246.8% increase in just one year.
Meanwhile, individual credit card spending has risen to 1.67 trillion lira, up from 1.02 trillion lira a year ago, marking a 64.2% increase.
Turkey Fines Twitch $58,000 Over Data Breach
Turkey's Personal Data Protection Board (KVKK) has fined Amazon's gaming platform Twitch 2 million lira ($58,000) for a data breach affecting 35,274 individuals in Turkey.
KVKK launched an investigation after a 125 GB data leak and determined that Twitch failed to implement adequate security measures and conducted insufficient risk and threat assessments.
The fine includes 1.75 million lira for inadequate security and 250,000 lira for not reporting the breach in time.
HUMAN RIGHTS
ECtHR Orders Turkey to Pay Damages for Unlawful Post-Coup Detentions
The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) ruled on November 12, 2024, that Turkey must pay 2.34 million euros in compensation to 468 individuals. The court found their detentions following the failed July 2016 coup were “unlawful” due to a lack of “reasonable suspicion.”
The cases were reviewed under Keskin v. Turkey, Manav v. Turkey, and Tanyas v. Turkey, all involving individuals allegedly tied to the Gulen movement.
AK Party Withdraws "Agents of Influence" Bill Amid Opposition Backlash
Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has withdrawn a proposed amendment on "agents of influence" following criticism from the opposition and civil society.
CHP deputy group chairman Murat Emir announced on November 13 that the proposal was shelved following public awareness campaigns and parliamentary discussions.
However, AK Party group chairman Abdullah Guler said the proposal is not permanently abandoned. He stated that the withdrawal allows the opposition to present alternative solutions, and the party will reintroduce the regulation next week.
“If the CHP does not propose a new solution, we will reintroduce the same provision,” Guler added.
MHP Leader Rebukes Journalist Over Question on Alleged Rift with Erdogan
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli rebuked journalist Hilal Koylu on November 12 for asking about a rumoured disagreement between him and President Erdogan over a potential new peace process with the Kurds.
Following an MHP parliamentary group meeting, Koylu asked Bahceli about the alleged rift. In response, Bahceli scolded the journalist, said the press should avoid actions that could provoke polarization, and urged journalists to act responsibly.
“If you cannot, quit the profession,” Bahceli said, expressing frustration.
FOREIGN POLICY
Israel's Foreign Minister Calls for Stronger Ties with Kurds
Israel's new Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar, has urged stronger relations with the Kurdish people, describing them as "a natural ally" of Israel, The Times of Israel newspaper reported.
In his first speech after taking office, Saar praised the Kurds as "a great nation, one of the largest without political independence." He criticized Iran and Turkey for oppressing the Kurdish population and emphasized the need for Israel to strengthen its ties with them.
“We must reach out and strengthen our ties with the Kurdish people,” Sa’ar said, signalling a potential shift in Israel’s regional approach.
Turkey Blocks Israeli President's Request to Use Airspace for COP29 Trip
Turkey refused Israeli President Isaac Herzog's request to use its airspace for his flight to the COP29 climate summit in Baku.
Officials confirmed that Israel sought permission for Herzog’s plane to pass through Turkish airspace, but Turkish authorities declined the request.
However, Herzog's office initially announced that he had cancelled his participation in the conference due to “security concerns”.
The Times: UK in Talks with Turkey to Slow Migrant Flow
The UK government is reportedly in talks with Turkey, Vietnam, and officials from the Kurdistan region of Iraq to discuss payments aimed at slowing the flow of migrants heading to Britain, the Times reported on November 17.
Interior Minister Yvette Cooper is believed to be negotiating cooperation and security agreements with these countries, with plans to finalize them before the year ends.
BRICS Offers Turkey Associate Membership, Says Trade Minister
Minister of Trade Omer Bolat announced that BRICS has extended an offer for Turkey to become an associate member. He emphasized that joining BRICS would provide significant opportunities for Turkey to collaborate with key global platforms.
Bolat also addressed the challenges ahead, stating that 2025 will be a difficult year. Referring to the potential impact of the new Trump administration, he remarked, “While it is hard to predict their decisions, some outcomes can be anticipated. We remain hopeful for brighter prospects in trade and investments.”
Erdogan Open to Tech Collaboration with Elon Musk
President Erdogan said Turkey could collaborate with Elon Musk on technology if suitable opportunities arise. Speaking to reporters on his return flight from Baku, Erdogan highlighted the potential for joint initiatives in the tech sector.
On November 12, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump appointed Musk to a role focused on improving government efficiency.
Astana Hosts 22nd High-Level Meeting on Syria
The 22nd High-Level Officials Meeting on Syria, part of the Astana Format, took place in Astana on November 11-12, 2024, the Turkish Foreign Ministry announced.
Officials discussed the impact of regional developments on Syria, focusing on security, humanitarian issues, and counter-terrorism efforts, the ministry said. The parties also explored ways to revive the political process in the country., the statement added.
At the end of the meeting, a Joint Statement was issued.
Turkey and Qatar Strengthen Ties with New Agreements
On November 14, Turkey and Qatar signed several agreements covering trade facilitation, military cooperation, and technical collaboration during a visit by Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani to Ankara.
President Tayyip Erdogan and al Thani co-chaired the Turkey-Qatar High Strategic Committee meeting, which prioritized discussions on investment and trade opportunities between the two countries.
Germany Advances Eurofighter Jet Sale Talks with Turkey
Germany has authorized its Temporary Sales Authority to explore the sale of Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets to Turkey, a Turkish defense ministry source confirmed on November 14, marking a shift in Germany’s initial opposition to the deal.
The source noted that while the decision does not finalize the sale, Ankara believes it will accelerate the process of acquiring the jets.
Croatia to Purchase Bayraktar TB2 Drones from Turkey
Croatia announced on November 14 that it will acquire armed Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkey in a deal worth €86 million ($91 million).
The government confirmed the purchase includes six drones, equipment, and training for experts, with deliveries planned through 2026. Officials stated the acquisition will enhance the Croatian army's ability to address modern threats effectively.
Turkey Rejects EU's Aegean and Mediterranean Maritime Maps
In a written statement, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has strongly criticized maps used in the European Union's Spatial Marine Planning for the Aegean and Mediterranean.
"The Aegean and Mediterranean maps used in this planning are null and void for Turkey," the statement said, adding that the EU lacks the authority to intervene in maritime disputes between sovereign states.
The ministry emphasized that EU involvement complicates resolving such issues and called for a sincere, comprehensive approach rooted in international law and good neighbourly relations.
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