ANALYSIS
"Turkey-Turkmenistan Gas Deal: A Strong Start, but Its Full Potential Remains Uncertain" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Despite its significance, the agreement has an inherent flaw—it is contingent on Iran's willingness and ability to serve as a transit country. This introduces two major risks.
First, in the past, Tehran has halted gas supplies to Turkey on several occasions, citing technical difficulties exacerbated by freezing temperatures. Given that Iran's gas sector suffers from underinvestment and aging infrastructure due to international sanctions, its ability to maintain consistent gas flows remains uncertain. The new swap deal is therefore vulnerable to the same disruptions that have plagued past agreements.
Second, the Trump administration is reportedly planning severe sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program. If natural gas exports are included in these sanctions, the viability of the Turkmenistan-Turkey swap agreement could be severely undermined. Even if Turkey applies for exemptions, the process is often lengthy and challenging.
The alternative—building a trans-Caspian pipeline—faces its own hurdles, particularly unresolved legal disputes and Russian opposition. Without a resolution to these issues, Turkmenistan is unlikely to emerge as a major supplier to Turkey, let alone Europe.
"Turkey's Coup Narrative Under UN Scrutiny and Lessons for the European Court in the Yasak Case" by Yasir Gokce, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
The United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention has ruled that the imprisonment of Akın Öztürk, former commander of the Turkish Air Force, is arbitrary and violates international law, urging his immediate release. The UN panel condemned Turkey's failure to ensure a fair trial, criticized the judiciary for accepting evidence obtained through torture, and called for compensation and accountability.
The UN Working Group's opinion is particularly timely as the Grand Chamber of the European Court of Human Rights prepares to reevaluate the Yasak v. Türkiye case. In its earlier ruling, the lower Chamber appeared to accept the Erdoğan government's official narrative on the organization and execution of the July 15 coup attempt without scrutiny. However, in its landmark opinion, the UN Working Group refutes this premise, concluding that the very individual the Gülen Movement allegedly appointed to lead the coup was, in fact, unaware of it and actively working to prevent its progression under the instructions of elected officials.
"A new crackdown is gathering strength in Turkey", The Economist
Turkey's government, headed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, continues to frame the protests, which were triggered by the planned redevelopment of a popular Istanbul park but snowballed into wider demonstrations about freedom of assembly and expression, as a coup attempt. But why prosecutors should now have ordered a new Gezi probe 12 years after the protests took place is unclear.
The arrests, and the rehashing of the Gezi conspiracy, mean he may be preparing a decisive blow, through the courts, against Mr. Imamoglu. "He's trying to intimidate artists and journalists," says Berk Esen, a political analyst, "so when he decides to go after Imamoglu no one will dare protest or rally behind him."
Some Turkish nationalists, including Mr. Erdogan's allies in Parliament, have dropped their long-standing objections to talks with the PKK. Mr. Ozdag could be made an example to those who have not. The next presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey are scheduled for 2028. Mr Erdogan is preparing for them well in advance.
POLITICS
Investigation Launched into CHP Congress Amid Allegations of Vote-Buying
Ankara prosecutors have started an investigation into the Republican People's Party (CHP) 38th Ordinary Congress, where Ozgur Ozel was elected party chairman in November 2023, following accusations of vote-buying.
The probe comes shortly after President Erdogan accused the opposition party on February 1 of orchestrating a "fraudulent congress" to remove former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu after his defeat in the May 2023 presidential election.
The investigation began after a complaint was filed with the Bursa Chief Public Prosecutor's Office, alleging delegates were offered cash and other incentives to vote for Ozel in the leadership election. The case was later transferred to Ankara, leading to the formal inquiry in January 2024. Former CHP leader Kilicdaroglu and former parliamentary group leader Akif Hamzacebi were called as witnesses. However, Kilicdaroglu's lawyer, Celal Celik, announced that Kilicdaroglu would not testify.
Ozel dismissed Erdogan's accusations, saying the president was trying to destabilize the opposition. "If we responded to every attempt by Erdogan to interfere in opposition affairs, we'd spend all our time doing that," he stated.
The investigation announcement came just before a key CHP Party Assembly meeting on February 10, where the party was set to discuss its strategy for the 2028 presidential election.
The night before, Ozel met with key opposition figures, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, potential candidates for the party's presidential nominee.
Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas reportedly stated that he would not participate in a preliminary intraparty election to select the CHP's presidential candidate, calling it "too early". Yavas added that this should not be the sole basis for selecting the candidate and could also cause divisions within the party.
Ozel announced on February 11 during his party's group meeting in Parliament that the party will hold a preliminary election on March 23 to determine its presidential nominee for the upcoming 2028 election. He said that although Yavas will not join the preliminary election, he would respect the party's decision.
Former CHP Hatay Mayor Lutfu Savas filed a lawsuit in the Ankara 31st Civil Court of First Instance, seeking to cancel the CHP Congress. In his petition, he argued that the will of the delegates had been corrupted and requested the removal of the current party administration from office.
Top Business Group Criticizes Government, Faces Investigation
Turkey's top business group, TUSIAD, voiced concerns over a deepening trust crisis among investors, businesses, and the public during its annual meeting on February 13.
High Advisory Council President Omer Aras and Chairman Orhan Turan highlighted growing economic and political risks, government interference in the private sector, judicial control by the executive, and worsening economic conditions.
They also criticized the mass dismissal of young military officers and the rising number of politically motivated arrests of opposition figures, journalists, and businesspeople.
Bloomberg HT, recently sold to Can Holding, cut off Turan's speech as he warned about threats to the rule of law and called for judicial independence.
The ruling AK Party swiftly condemned TUSIAD's remarks, with Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc stating that "no organization is above the national will" and promising legal action.
Prosecutors launched an investigation into Omer Aras over his sharp criticism of the government, accusing him of trying to influence the judiciary and spreading false information.
DEM Party Delegation Meets KDP Chairman Barzani in Erbil
On February 16, the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) delegation met with KDP Chairman Massoud Barzani in Erbil, part of the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (IKBY), to inform him about their discussions with PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan and seek his advice.
The meeting took place in Barzani's office in the Salahuddin district and lasted 1 hour and 45 minutes.
In a statement, Barzani's press office emphasized that the ongoing process is the best way to resolve the issues and that Barzani is ready to support the progress of the new process in Turkey and contribute to its success.
ECONOMY
Tupras Cuts Russian Oil Imports to Avoid US Sanctions
Turkey's largest oil refiner, Tupras, is reducing its imports of Russian crude and petroleum products to comply with US sanctions following Washington's new restrictions last month, Bloomberg reported. Starting February 27, Tupras will no longer accept shipments exceeding the price caps set by the Group of Seven nations, a source told Bloomberg.
The company had already halted purchases of Russian oil priced above the cap after the sanctions took effect on January 10 but will continue receiving previously agreed deliveries until then. It is unclear whether Tupras will keep buying Russian crude below the cap or switch to other suppliers.
Turkey's Central Bank Ready to Act Against Risks, Says Governor Karahan
Turkish Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan said on February 16 that the bank is "ready to act" against risks in the ongoing rate-cutting cycle.
Speaking at a conference on emerging market economies in Saudi Arabia, he highlighted the challenges posed by monetary policy uncertainties in advanced economies, especially the United States. "There are many risks, and we are prepared to respond," Karahan said.
Turkey Lifts Trade and Transit Restrictions on Syria
Turkey has removed trade and transit restrictions at its border with Syria, the Ministry of Trade announced on February 11. Goods exchanged or transited between the two countries will now follow the same rules as those for other nations.
"The current export and transit restrictions to Syria through Turkish Customs Territory have been lifted," said Turkey's Ministry of Trade.
Turkey Resumes Buying US Treasuries After Nearly a Decade
Turkey has started purchasing US Treasuries for the first time in almost 10 years, ending a sell-off that began in 2016 during strained relations with the US, Bloomberg reported.
A source familiar with the matter said the central bank is buying US bonds to normalize its reserves policy, as its foreign-currency holdings have reached a stable level.
According to US Treasury data compiled by Bloomberg, Turkey's holdings of US Treasuries rose by $10 billion over the past year, reaching $12 billion. The largest purchases, totaling about $6 billion, were made in October, just before Trump's return to the White House.
TurkStat Reports December 2024 Labor Force Statistics
TurkStat released the labour force statistics for December 2024. The number of unemployed individuals aged 15 and over decreased by 39,000 compared to the previous month, reaching 3 million 26 thousand people. The unemployment rate dropped by 0.1 percentage points to 8.5%. The unemployment rate was 6.9% for men and 11.4% for women.
The labour force shrank by 94,000 people in December 2024, totaling 35 million 743 thousand. The labour force participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 54.1%. The rate was 71.9% for men and 36.6% for women.
The average weekly working hours, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, remained unchanged at 42.9 hours in December 2024.
The idle labour force rate, which includes time-related underemployment, potential labour force, and the unemployed, stayed the same as the previous month at 28.2%.
Turkey Fines Frito-Lay $36 Million for Antitrust Violations
Turkey's antitrust regulator fined Frito-Lay, the Turkish unit of PepsiCo, 1.3 billion liras ($36 million) after completing an investigation into the company.
The Turkish Antitrust Board announced on February 15 that Frito-Lay must also allocate part of its stands to rival brands in stores smaller than 200 square meters where competitors lack shelf space, aiming to increase snack choices for consumers.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Van Mayor Removed After Terrorism Conviction
The Turkish government removed Van municipality Mayor Abdullah Zeydan from office on February 15 following his terrorism conviction.
The Interior Ministry announced that Van Governor Ozan Balcı would replace Zeydan as trustee after a court sentenced Zeydan to over three years in prison for aiding a terrorist organization.
In the early hours, police raided Van City Hall after Balcı's appointment. Officers used tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse protesters outside, detaining 127 people, including six journalists.
EP Supports Sanctions on Turkish Officials for Removing Opposition Mayors
The European Parliament passed a resolution condemning the dismissal and arrest of opposition mayors in Turkey, urging sanctions on officials who replace them with government-appointed trustees. Lawmakers warned that these actions threaten local democracy.
During a plenary session on February 12 in Strasbourg, Turkey, rapporteur Nacho Sanchez Amor called the law "undemocratic" and criticized the government for not appointing a local councillor from the winning party instead.
The resolution, adopted on February 13, called for asset freezes and travel bans on Turkish officials who appoint or serve as trustees.
UN Panel Calls for Immediate Release of Akin Ozturk, Alleged Head of the Coup Attempt
The United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention ruled that the imprisonment of Akin Ozturk, former Turkish Air Force commander, is unlawful and violates international law. The panel stated that his prolonged isolation amounts to cruel and inhumane treatment. It urged Turkey to release him immediately and provide compensation.
According to the UN panel, Ozturk was denied a fair trial, mistreated, and convicted based on unreliable evidence. Authorities failed to prove his involvement in the 2016 coup attempt, relying on coerced testimony and manipulated evidence. His trial was marked by serious violations, including arrest without a warrant, solitary confinement, and physical and psychological abuse, the panel noted.
The panel detailed allegations that Ozturk was tortured, including beatings, forced nudity, acid poured on his fingernails and sleep deprivation. It also called for an investigation into those responsible.
ECtHR Rules Turkey Violated Fair Trial Rights of Judges and Prosecutors
The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) ruled on February 11 that Turkey violated the fair trial rights of 120 judges and prosecutors in three separate cases. The court found that the government violated their rights by dismissing or reassigning them without a fair legal process.
In each case, the ECtHR unanimously decided that Turkey violated Article 6 § 1 of the European Convention on Human Rights, which guarantees access to a court. The court ordered Turkey to pay compensation to the affected judges and prosecutors.
Turkey Detains 103 People in Operations Against Gulen Movement
Turkey's Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced that police detained 103 people over the past week in operations targeting alleged followers of the Gulen movement.
Yerlikaya said on X on Saturday that the arrests took place across 39 provinces.
Turkish Police Detain 10 Municipality Officials in Terror Probe
Turkish police detained 10 senior officials from nine district municipalities in Istanbul on February 11 over terrorism-related charges. Most of the municipalities are run by the main opposition CHP.
Among those detained are the deputy mayors of Kartal and Atasehir and eight city council members, all linked to the CHP. They are accused of recruiting PKK supporters under the "urban consensus model," a strategy used by the pro-Kurdish DEM Party for the March 31 local elections.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office stated that the model aimed to give Kurds a voice in city councils, increase their role in local government, and create political balance in western regions.
Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and CHP Group Deputy Chairman Ali Mahir Basarir criticized the detention decisions on social media.
An Istanbul court ordered the arrest of 10 officials on February 13.
Turkey Scores 34 in 2024 Corruption Index
Turkey scored 34 out of 100 in the 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) by Transparency International, staying below the global average of 43. The country ranked 107th out of 180, showing no progress from previous years. Denmark (90), Finland (88), and Singapore (84) were the least corrupt countries in the index.
Turkey Blocks Access to 126 X Accounts for Security Reasons
The Information Technologies and Communication Authority (BTK) blocked access to 126 X accounts and 14 posts at the request of the Interior Ministry's General Directorate of Security. The Ankara 4th Criminal Court of Peace approved the decision, citing national security and public order concerns.
Some blocked accounts were previously restricted by court orders in 2016-2017 under Twitter's old domain (twitter.com). The new ruling applies to X (x.com), making these accounts and posts invisible in Turkey.
FOREIGN POLICY
US Prosecutors Ordered to Drop Corruption Charges Against NYC Mayor
The US Justice Department ordered federal prosecutors on February 10 to drop corruption charges against New York City Mayor Eric Adams over his alleged corrupt dealings with Turkish officials, The New York Times reported. Last month, Adams met with Trump near his Mar-a-Lago estate in a rare political and personal outreach. A few days later, he attended Trump's inauguration in Washington.
Emil Bove III, the department's acting No. 2 official, sent a letter to Manhattan prosecutors instructing them to dismiss the case. Bove stated that the indictment, issued last September, had limited Adams's ability to support President Trump's immigration crackdown and could interfere with the June 2025 mayoral primary.
Six high-level officials from the Justice Department resigned, including federal prosecutor Danielle Sassoon, who refused to follow the Trump administration's order to drop corruption charges against Adams. Sassoon argued in a letter to US Attorney Pam Bondi that she was confident Adams had committed the crimes listed in the indictment.
Bove, who accepted Sassoon's resignation, stated that the department would not tolerate insubordination and announced an internal investigation into Sassoon and the prosecutors involved.
Erdogan: US Making Wrong Calculations in the Middle East
Turkish President Erdogan said the Trump administration was making "wrong calculations" in the Middle East and warned that believing "Zionist lies" would worsen conflicts in the region.
Speaking to journalists on his return from Malaysia, Indonesia, and Pakistan, Erdogan said he expected Trump to fulfil his campaign promises by taking steps for peace instead of creating new conflicts.
Turkish FM Fidan Meets US Secretary Rubio at Munich Conference
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on February 14 during the Munich Security Conference to discuss regional security issues, including the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, and bilateral trade relations, Rubio's spokesperson announced. In their first in-person meeting, Rubio stressed the importance of close US-Turkish cooperation to stabilize Syria and counter threats from ISIL.
Fidan outlined Turkey's approach to combating ISIL and highlighted the need for a lasting ceasefire in Gaza for long-term stability in the region.
On the margins of the Munich Conference, Fidan held separate meetings with several top diplomats, including UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, to discuss Syria, transatlantic security, and the impact of regime change in Syria.
Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, and Syria to Hold Anti-ISIS Summit
Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan is expected to visit Jordan this month for the first meeting of a joint regional plan to form an anti-ISIS coalition, a Turkish diplomatic source told Al-Monitor.
Top diplomats and defense and intelligence chiefs from Turkey, Jordan, and Iraq will hold a security summit this month to discuss the coalition's setup and cooperation efforts.
Turkey and Turkmenistan Sign Deal for Natural Gas Supply
Turkey and Turkmenistan have signed an agreement to transport Turkmen natural gas to Turkey, strengthening energy cooperation between the two countries, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced on February 11.
The deal, signed between Turkey's state-owned pipeline operator BOTAS and Turkmenistan's Turkmengaz, aims to start gas flow on March 1. Bayraktar did not reveal the amount of gas to be supplied under the agreement.
A Turkmenistan official said they could supply 2 bcm of gas annually through Iran at the initial stage. He also mentioned ongoing talks about building a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and Turkey as part of long-term cooperation.
Turkey and Indonesia Agree to Strengthen Trade and Defense Ties
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and Turkish President Erdogan met on February 12 and signed several agreements to boost trade and defense cooperation, including a joint venture to produce drones. Before signing the agreements, the leaders held their countries' first High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meeting.
Prabowo said the partnership would also involve joint military training and closer collaboration on counter-terrorism and intelligence. Erdogan said they discussed global issues like Syria and the Palestinian cause and future plans to increase trade to $10 billion annually.
Ministers and officials signed a dozen agreements covering trade, energy, higher education, and religious affairs, including a deal to manufacture drones in Indonesia. Turkey's Baykar signed a major drone deal with Indonesia, including plans to co-produce TB3 and Akinci drones.
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