WEEKLY NEWS BULLETIN ON TURKEY 16 SEPTEMBER 2024

by instituDE, published on 16 September 2024

ANALYSIS

"Erdogan courts big business to lure investors back to Turkey" by Adam Samson and Joshua Franklin, Financial Times

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to meet top US business leaders in New York this month to end a feud with international financiers and lure investors back to the country’s markets.

Turkey’s strongman leader and an entourage of lieutenants will seek to woo investors and corporate executives in at least four events timed to coincide with the UN General Assembly in the final week of September, according to the meetings’ main organiser, the Turkey-US Business Council (TAIK), and several other people familiar with the plans.

Erdogan, Turkey’s leader of the past two decades, will host a roundtable with 20 Fortune 100 US company executives on September 23, TAIK told the Financial Times. The roster of participants includes senior executives from Wall Street banks JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, according to a person briefed on the matter. 

Large mainstream investment houses have generally remained more cautious on Turkey’s markets, fearing an abrupt turnaround in policy as has happened several times in the past. 

Major foreign direct investment announcements have also remained elusive, with corporate managers reluctant to launch long-term projects in Turkey because of concerns about the economy and broader issues such as the rule of law and independence of the country’s judiciary.

"Who is the winner in the Erdogan-Sisi summit?" by Mahmoud Hassan, Middle East Monitor

At some point, and under enormous pressure imposed by the course of the war on Gaza, and the tension in the Red Sea, Sudan, Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean, which are areas of influence for both countries, each party gave up its political stubbornness and overcame points of disagreement, or perhaps postponed them, moving towards more mature and balanced understandings and arrangements.

From an economic perspective, rapprochement carries within it political and military understandings that may rise to bilateral arrangements in hot files. This may take some time, but the escalating tension in the Middle East region is sufficient to mature the coordination process between the two major powers in the region, united by the bonds of religion and history.

It is likely, according to political researcher, Hamdi Al-Masry, that Cairo will work to benefit from Turkish influence in the African area, especially in the files of Somalia and the Renaissance Dam, where Turkiye would play a mediating role between Egypt and Ethiopia to resolve the dispute over filling and operating the dam.

This rapprochement may be positively reflected on the conflict in Gaza, Libya, Sudan and the Red Sea, and thus reduce tensions on the sides of the Egyptian borders which are likely to explode from all directions, according to Al-Masry.

The outcome of the Turkish-Egyptian summit remains a matter of anticipation in the near and long term, without rushing it, while taking into consideration that some issues need time to resolve due to their complications, and to find ways that avoid any possible mines down the road to reconciliation. 

POLITICS

DEVA Party and Future Party Discuss Possible Merger or Joint Parliamentary Group

DEVA Party leader Ali Babacan said they are discussing either merging with the Future Party or forming a joint group in Parliament.

During a TV program, Babacan explained that they are working on establishing a parliamentary group and are in talks with the Future Party. He said, "We believe creating a new and strong alternative together will be beneficial. We are in discussions with the Future Party about a potential merger."

Former Turkish Chief of Staff Akar Sparks Criticism for Views on Education

Former Turkish Chief of Staff Hulusi Akar sparked criticism for his remarks about the purpose of education. He stated that education should focus on instilling a fear of God and a sense of shame before others rather than simply imparting knowledge.

Speaking at an event on September 10, Akar stressed the need to teach children aged 4 to 12 to fear God. He warned that failing to do so could lead to societal problems such as atheism, LGBT identity, and drug use.

“Education is not just about acquiring information. Its goal is to instill a fear of God, a sense of shame, and a love for the nation, flag, and doing good for others,” he said.

Good Party MP Umit Ozlale Resigns from Party 

Good Party Izmir MP Umit Ozlale announced on September 12 on social media that he resigned from both his duties and membership in the party. With his resignation, the number of Good Party MPs has now dropped to 30 in the Parliament.

CHP Leader Declares CHP as Leading Party

CHP Chairman Ozgür Ozel said on September 13 that the Republican People's Party (CHP) is no longer just an opposition party, stating, "The CHP is the first party of Turkey."

Addressing the possibility of early elections, Ozel pointed out that the ruling party and its partner, MHP, would need CHP votes to make such a decision. He added, "If Erdogan claims to be a candidate again, and if he remains the strongest candidate for the AK Party, the deadline for early elections would be November 2025."

ECONOMY

"Turkish firms face wave of closures amid economic reckoning" by Ceyda Caglayan and Ezgi Erkoyun, Reuters

These days, Turkish households and business are facing the economic consequences of a cumulative 41.5 percentage points of rate hikes that began in June last year and are now finally beginning to cool inflation, which dipped to 52% last month.

But with credit now out of reach for many, and lira depreciation badly lagging monthly price rises, companies, especially apparel and textile exporters, are in a crunch.

Almost 15,000 companies closed down in the first seven months of the year, up 28% from 2023, according to the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey.

Other data suggest bankruptcy stress is brewing. Monitoring outlet konkordatotakip.com says 982 companies were granted initial court protection from debt in the first eight months of the year, almost double last year's total.

There may be "heavy costs," said Erdal Bahcivan, chairman of Istanbul Chamber of Industry. "While trying to save a company, dozens of (creditor) firms may end up in dire straits."

Turkey Set to Sign LNG Supply Agreement with TotalEnergies Next Week

Turkey is preparing to sign a liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply agreement with France's TotalEnergies SE, Bloomberg reported.

The 10-year deal with the state-run importer Botas is expected to be finalized during Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar’s visit to the US for the Gastech conference, running from September 17-20.

This agreement with TotalEnergies would be Botas’s third LNG deal this year. Turkey aims to diversify its gas sources and establish itself as a natural gas hub. Last week, Turkey signed a 10-year supply deal with Shell Plc starting in 2027, and in April, it signed another 10-year agreement with Oman.

Turkey Considers Offshore Energy Exploration in Libya

Turkey is considering an offer from Tripoli to conduct energy exploration offshore Libya, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on September 11.

"Libya has invited us to work with our seismic vessels offshore. We are open to this and could begin seismic work in the Libyan offshore," Bayraktar told Anadolu news agency.

He also mentioned that Turkey is interested in other projects in Libya and added that Ankara plans to send its Oruc Reis exploration vessel to Somalia by October to conduct seismic work as part of a hydrocarbon cooperation agreement between the two countries.

Turks Increase Real Estate Investments Abroad

According to the balance of payments statistics released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey on September 12, Turks increasingly invest in real estate abroad. In August alone, real estate investments abroad totaled $175 million.

From January to August 2024, Turks acquired $1.203 billion worth of property overseas. Over the past year, these purchases reached $1.989 billion.

BYD’s Investment in Turkey Progressing Smoothly, Says Turkish Ministry

BYD, the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, continues its investment process in Turkey without any issues, according to Turkish industry ministry sources on September 12. This statement came in response to China's recent warning to its companies about risks associated with overseas investments.

The sources, who requested anonymity, also mentioned that discussions are ongoing with other Chinese automakers about potential new investments in Turkey.

Reuters had earlier reported, citing two sources, that China’s commerce ministry recently cautioned its carmakers about the risks of investing in the automotive sector abroad.

HUMAN RIGHTS

426 Prisoner Were Not Released in 2023 Due to Lack of 'Good Conduct'

According to the 2023 Human Rights Association (IHD) report, at least 23,899 rights violations were recorded in 147 prisons.

The release of many prisoners has been delayed due to decisions made by the Administration and Monitoring Boards, established on December 29, 2020. In 2023 alone, the release of at least 426 prisoners was delayed for several reasons.

Umit Bicer, a member of the Human Rights Foundation of Turkey (TIHV), criticized these boards, stating they act like courts by determining whether prisoners display "good conduct." Bicer emphasized that these decisions are arbitrary and lack legal transparency, noting that the criteria used by the boards remain unclear.

Turkish Court Reconvicts Former Teacher Despite ECtHR Ruling 

A high criminal court in central Turkey once again convicted former teacher Yuksel Yalcinkaya of terrorism charges due to his links to the Gülen movement, despite a landmark ruling in his favor by the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) last year.

The second and final hearing of Yalcinkaya’s retrial took place on September 12 at the Kayseri 2nd High Criminal Court.

Yalcinkaya attended the hearing with his lawyer, Ozcan Akinci, who delivered a defense statement. Despite witness statements in Yalcinkaya’s favor, the court sentenced him to six years and three months for membership in a terrorist organization.

Prisoners at Kandira Prison Using Beds in 12-hour Shifts

DW Turkish reported that prisoners at Kandira Prison are using beds in 12-hour shifts.

Turkey has 356,000 prisoners across 404 prisons, but the total capacity of these prisons is currently only 295,000.

Minister Uraloglu Admits Citizen's Data Leak 

Turkish Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu denied allegations of a massive new data breach affecting millions of Turkish citizens while confirming an earlier leak during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Free Web Turkey platform reported that hackers stole the personal data of 108 million Turkish citizens, including deceased individuals, prompting the government to seek help from Google to remove the uploaded files.

Speaking to reporters after a cabinet meeting, Uraloglu was asked if hackers had accessed the personal information of 85 million citizens. He referenced a previous incident where health data was compromised but dismissed claims of a new breach.

"This is from the pandemic period when there was a leak in the health system," Uraloglu said. "Aside from that, no evidence exists that current data has been stolen. Unfortunately, some information was accessed back then and couldn’t be prevented."

FOREIGN POLICY

Erdogan Calls for Emergency OIC Summit on Gaza Conflict

Turkish President Erdogan urged the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to hold an emergency summit to address the war in Gaza and what he referred to as Israel's attacks on Jerusalem.

After a cabinet meeting in Ankara, he said, "It is unthinkable for the OIC, whose duty is to protect the Jerusalem cause, to remain indifferent to these attacks. The organization must urgently convene at the leadership level without further delay."

Norway Lifts Defense Industry Restrictions on Turkey Following Diplomatic Call

On September 11, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Norway lifted its defense industry restrictions on Turkey.

Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Oncu Keceli shared the update on the X platform, stating that Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan had a phone conversation with his Norwegian counterpart, Espen Barth Eide.

According to Keceli, Eide informed Fidan during their call that Norway had decided to remove the restrictions.

These restrictions were initially imposed after Turkey launched 'Operation Peace Spring' in northern Syria in 2019.

President Erdogan Calls for Crimea's Return to Ukraine 

In a video message to the Fourth Leaders' Summit of the Crimean Platform, President Tayyip Erdogan said that Crimea should be returned to Ukraine.

Highlighting Ukraine's territorial integrity, Erdogan emphasized that Crimea is a key priority in Turkey's foreign policy. He stated, "Returning Crimea to Ukraine is a requirement of international law."

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to President Erdogan's recent remarks on Crimea, stating, "Russia does not agree with this view in any way." Peskov emphasized that the Crimea issue is "a point of complete disagreement" between Russia and Turkey. He added that Moscow will continue to explain its position on Crimea to its "Turkish friends."

Turkey Criticizes U.S.-Cyprus Defense Cooperation Agreement

Turkey condemned the signing of a roadmap to enhance defense cooperation between the United States and the Republic of Cyprus this week.

On September 9, the U.S. and Cyprus signed the cooperation agreement in Nicosia. In a joint statement, their defense ministries reaffirmed their commitment to addressing international security challenges through the roadmap.

In a statement on September 11, Turkey's Foreign Ministry said that the U.S.'s actions, including the recent launch of a strategic dialogue with Cyprus, harm the security of the Turkish Cypriot side of the island.

Syrian Delegation Walks Out During Fidan's Speech in Arab League Meeting 

Turkey participated in the Arab League Council of Foreign Ministers for the first time in 13 years at a meeting held in Cairo on September 10.

When Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was announced to speak, the Syrian delegation, led by Foreign Minister Faisal El Mikdad, walked out of the hall. They returned after Fidan’s speech concluded.

Before the meeting, El Mikdad stated, "If Turkey wants new steps in cooperation with Syria and a return to normal relations, it must withdraw from the Arab lands it occupies in the north."

Muslim Brotherhood Welcomes Turkey-Egypt Rapprochement

The Muslim Brotherhood welcomed the recent improvement in relations between Turkey and Egypt, the group’s spokesperson Talat Fehmi told BBC’s Turkish service. Fehmi highlighted that stronger ties between the two countries are important for both the region and the world.

Despite the warming relations, Fehmi stated that the Brotherhood has not faced any pressure to limit its activities in Turkey. He emphasized that the Turkish government continues to respect the group's presence, adding, "We operate in accordance with Turkish law, and all our activities comply with official and legal standards."

Turkey Seeks US Approval to Buy GE Aerospace Engines for Military Jets

Turkey requested US approval to purchase GE Aerospace engines for its domestically produced military jets, BNN Bloomberg reported on September 13, citing Turkish officials.

Ankara is looking to acquire F404 engines for its program to build training aircraft, officials said. Turkey plans to replace its aging fleet of T-38s and F-5s from Northrop Grumman Corp. with the locally made Hurjet, which the GE engines would power.

“We look forward to deepening our defense partnership with Turkey, a key NATO ally,” a U.S. Embassy official in Ankara said in response to questions from Bloomberg.

Turkey's Intelligence Chief Meets Hamas Delegation in Ankara

Turkey's spy chief, Ibrahim Kalin, head of the National Intelligence Agency, met with a delegation from Hamas' political bureau in Ankara on September 13. The meeting focused on ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza, state broadcaster TRT reported.

Turkey Praises Spain’s Support for Palestinian Cause

Turkey appreciates Spain's support for the Palestinian cause, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on September 13.

His comments followed a meeting in Madrid with representatives from the League of Arab States, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and several European countries. He noted the growing support for the two-state solution during the talks. Fidan also had a meeting with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

The Madrid Joint Statement issued after the meeting emphasized continued joint efforts to advance the two-state solution.