"Containment vs. Consolidation: Israel and Turkey's Diverging Visions on Syria" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
It remains unclear how Turkey and Syria can offer Israel the kind of hard security guarantees it would demand. Symbolic gestures won't cut it. Israel would expect verifiable commitments, military oversight mechanisms, and restrictions on the deployment of Turkish troops. It may also request clearly defined spheres of influence between Turkey and Israel—something that would be difficult for Damascus to accept. In this vein, Turkey and Israel held their first technical meeting in Azerbaijan to work on establishing a deconfliction mechanism aimed at preventing incidents in Syria, and talks are set to continue.
American mediation is helpful to prevent further escalation between Turkey and Israel over Syria. Trump's remarks, notably sympathetic toward Turkey, suggest a willingness to persuade Israel to accept Ankara's expanded role in Syria. But that will only be possible if Turkey and Syria can deliver on stability, and offer something more than vague assurances.
"Turkey and Israel are becoming deadly rivals in Syria", The Economist
Relations between Turkey and Israel, already poisoned by the war in Gaza, may still worsen. But actual armed conflict between NATO's second-biggest army and America's main regional ally is not likely. Neither side has any appetite to fight the other. Turkey and Israel are setting the stage for deterrence, not war. Mr. Erdogan regards Donald Trump as an old friend and reckons that, with him as president, there may be an improvement in Turkey's relations with America, including a chance to unblock the sale of F-35 stealth fighters. He is also hoping to improve relations with Europe, which wants him to help with security guarantees and peacekeeping in Ukraine. Mr. Erdogan is unlikely to jeopardise all this by courting war with Israel.
Moreover, Turkey and Israel may yet find some common ground in the Levant. Both want to keep Iran from re-establishing a foothold in Syria. Both stand to lose if the new Syria fails. "Syria is a big country in deep crisis and [Mr. Erdogan] won't have time to challenge Israel," says an Israeli intelligence source. "And if he succeeds in stabilising what could have become a chaotic jihadist state, that is good for Israel as well."
"Le Pen vs. İmamoğlu? Why the comparison fails — and matters" by Gonul Tol, Middle East Institute
Both Le Pen and Turkish officials are now pointing to each other to justify their own actions. Le Pen claims her conviction is politically motivated, likening it to Erdogan's crackdown on rivals. Turkish officials, in turn, argue that prosecuting a political rival does not necessarily mean the judiciary is politicized, pointing to Le Pen's conviction as evidence that corruption cases involving opposition figures happen in Western democracies too.
Le Pen's disqualification followed the law; İmamoğlu's was engineered through politics. Equating the two cases hands autocrats like Erdogan exactly what they want: a talking point to legitimize their crackdowns. By pointing to legal actions in Western democracies, they argue that jailing political rivals is simply standard legal procedure — not political persecution. This false equivalence not only distorts reality in places like Turkey, it also chips away at public trust in democratic institutions elsewhere. When democratic governments are framed as no different from authoritarian regimes, faith in the independence of courts and the rule of law erodes, even in the very democracies that uphold them.
Erdogan Holds First Meeting with DEM Party in 13 Years
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with DEM Party MPs Sırrı Sureyya Onder and Pervin Buldan on April 10, marking the first face-to-face meeting between Erdogan and the DEM Party in 13 years.
The meeting took place at the Presidential Complex and lasted approximately 1 hour and 25 minutes. It was also attended by AK Party Deputy Chairman Efkan Ala and National Intelligence Organization (MIT) Chairman Ibrahim Kalin. Following the talks, Onder and Buldan described the meeting as positive.
In a separate written statement, the DEM Party called the meeting "extremely positive, constructive, and productive." The statement noted that both sides acknowledged the significance of the current stage in the peace process and evaluated the potential next steps together.
DEM Party is set to meet with Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc next week to discuss potential legal steps following their meeting with President Erdogan. Buldan said that they would have discussions with Minister Tunc in the coming days to review possible legislative actions.
Speaking at an international conference in Rome, Buldan said following their upcoming meeting with Turkey's Justice Minister, a visit to jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan is likely to take place. She stated that the process is expected to be completed by the end of June.
Buldan also highlighted the importance of international backing, noting that continued support from European countries would significantly contribute to the peace efforts.
Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu Appears in Court, Denies Insult Charges
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu appeared in court on April 11 for the first time since his arrest last month over accusations that he insulted and threatened Istanbul's chief prosecutor, Akin Gurlek.
The hearing took place at the courthouse-prison complex in Silivri, where Imamoglu is currently being held. The charges stem from earlier remarks Imamoglu allegedly made targeting the prosecutor.
Imamoglu firmly denied the accusations in court and claimed the trial was politically motivated. "I am here today because I won Istanbul three times," he said. "I'm giving this statement because I was successful in defying the person who says, 'whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey,' referring to President Erdogan.
Imamoglu's Lawyers Appeal Pretrial Detention, Call Flight Risk Claim Baseless
Lawyers representing Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu filed an appeal against his pretrial detention, challenging the claim that he is a flight risk. The appeal was submitted to Istanbul's 10th Criminal Court of Peace on April 7.
In their petition, the lawyers argued that the assertion that Imamoglu might flee is entirely unfounded. They pointed out that the mayor represents 16 million people in Istanbul and is a strong potential candidate for the presidency in the upcoming elections.
The legal team also reiterated the opposition's stance that the investigation into Imamoglu is politically motivated and overseen by judges and prosecutors who have "lost their independence and impartiality."
Erdogan Sues CHP Leader Ozgur Ozel Over 'Junta' Remarks
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has filed a criminal complaint and a lawsuit against Ozgur Ozel, the main opposition leader after Ozel accused him of leading a "junta."
On April 8, Erdogan's lawyer, Huseyin Aydin, announced on X that a criminal complaint was filed with the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office, citing "insulting the president." In addition, Erdogan is seeking TL 500,000 (approximately $13,100) in non-pecuniary damages from Ozel.
The accusation came during the Republican People's Party (CHP) congress on April 6, where Ozel was re-elected as party leader. In his speech, he described Erdogan's government as "a junta" and alleged it had received "permission from across the ocean" for the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunc rejected Ozel’s accusations that the government sought approval from the United States to arrest Mayor Imamoglu.
"That is an absurd allegation. Is the judiciary supposed to take instructions from the US? Of course not," Tunc stated. He added, "We know very well who is actually seeking permission from foreign powers and complaining about Turkey abroad."
Young Voters Shift Toward Opposition
A new survey released by ORC Research on April 9, 2025, reveals that young voters in Turkey are increasingly leaning toward opposition and alternative parties. When asked how they would vote if a general election were held this Sunday, 27.5% of respondents said they would support the Republican People's Party, making it the top choice among young voters.
The AK Party followed with 20.6%, while the Victory Party came in third with 11%. The DEM Party received 8.5%, and the Nationalist Movement Party followed with 6.5%. 8.4% of those surveyed remained undecided.
Turkey and Somalia Sign Landmark Deal for Onshore Oil and Gas Exploration
Turkey and Somalia have signed a new agreement to launch onshore oil and gas exploration, Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced on April 10.
The deal, finalized in Ankara, grants the state-owned Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) rights to conduct seismic surveys across three land blocks spanning roughly 16,000 square kilometres in Somalia.
Bayraktar said TPAO would use advanced seismic exploration technology to assess Somalia's hydrocarbon potential, starting with surveys and later moving to drilling operations.
Calling it a "historic day" for bilateral energy ties, Somali Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Dahir Shire Mohamed said the agreement opens a new chapter for Somalia's natural resources and could further strengthen cooperation with Turkey.
Central Bank Reserves Drop to 7-Month Low
In the week of April 4, the Central Bank of Turkey's total reserves fell by $2.25 billion, reaching $154.26 billion, marking the lowest level since the week of September 13, 2024.
Gross foreign exchange reserves dropped by $2.77 billion, falling to $77.84 billion. Gold reserves rose by $520 million, increasing from $75.90 billion to $76.42 billion.
Despite the rise in gold, the overall reserves declined from $156.51 billion to $154.26 billion in a week.
Turkey's 5-Year CDS Hits Highest Level Since November
According to Bloomberg HT, Turkey's 5-year credit default swap (CDS) rose to 372 basis points on the first trading day of the week — the highest level since November 2023. Global market developments also pushed Turkey's risk premium higher.
Since March 19, the country's risk premium has stayed above 300 basis points.
OECD: Turkey to Grow 3.1% in 2025, Inflation to Ease by 2026
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) expects Turkey's economy to grow by 3.1% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026, according to its latest "OECD Turkey Economic Surveys" report.
The OECD forecasted that inflation will fall to 31.4% by the end of 2025 and continue to drop to 17.3% in 2026.
It also predicted that Turkey's budget deficit will shrink to 2.6% in 2026. The OECD expects a decline in investments and public spending and an increase in exports gradually as global conditions improve.
Boycott After Imamoglu's Arrest Slows Card Spending
Data shows that the boycott action launched by CHP after the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu appears to have an impact on spending trends. Card spending during the week of March 29 to April 4—which included the holiday and the boycott day on April 2—showed the slowest growth rate in the last four years.
According to the Central Bank of Turkey's weekly data, total card spending fell by 24 percent in the week of April 4 compared to the previous week, dropping to 320.9 billion TL. Grocery spending alone declined by 18 percent during this period.
When looking at the annual change in four-week averages, spending growth hit its lowest level since 2021, with a 36.5% increase.
Trustees Appointed to 24 Companies in Istanbul Municipality Probe
As part of the ongoing corruption investigation targeting the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, trustees have been appointed to 24 companies linked to 101 people involved in the case.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office and the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) made the appointments directly. Companies now under trustee control include Imamoglu Construction (owned by Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu), Nuhoglu Construction, ASOY Construction, and Karsal Orme A.S.
News on Strip Search Allegations Blocked Citing' National Security'
News reports containing allegations of strip searches and ill-treatment during recent protests have been blocked officially on the grounds of "protecting national security and public order," according to a statement from the Freedom of Expression Association (IFOD).
The reports featured statements from several detainees, including women, who claimed they were subjected to strip searches and ill-treatment at police stations and in prison. These people were detained and arrested during demonstrations held in response to ongoing "corruption" and "terrorism" investigations targeting Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
The reports also included claims made by nine people who were detained after protesting President Erdogan's participation in an event last year due to ongoing trade relations between Turkey and Israel.
Teen Girl Dies While Her Mother in Jail Over Alleged Gulen Links
A 15-year-old girl was found dead in her bed on April 3 in Sakarya, northwestern Turkey, in what appears to be an epilepsy-related death. The girl, Sumeyra Gelir, had been caring for her two younger siblings after their mother, former physics teacher Melek Gelir, was imprisoned due to alleged ties to the Gulen movement.
Omer Faruk Gergerlioglu, a lawmaker from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party and a well-known human rights advocate, said he had made multiple appeals for Gelir's transfer to a prison closer to her children, but authorities denied all requests.
The death of Sumeyra Gelir has sparked strong reactions from opposition parties. Future Party Denizli Deputy Sema Silkin Un commented on the incident, stating, "I believe it is a matter of conscience—remaining silent in the face of such a tragedy is unacceptable."
Felicity Party Deputy Birol Aydin also voiced his concerns, saying, "Those who stay silent about the death of children like Sumeyra Gelir are powerful enough to suppress the youth exercising their right to protest. This silence is unacceptable."
36 Detained as Part of Gulen Movement Investigation
As part of ongoing investigations into the Gulen Movement, security forces detained 36 individuals on April 11 in simultaneous operations across four provinces led by the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office.
Authorities issued detention orders for 41 people on charges related to "restructuring" within the movement. The investigation targeted individuals who had previously been dismissed from public service, imprisoned, or faced legal action.
EU Parliament Committee Votes to Keep Turkey's EU Accession Process Suspended
The European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee has voted to keep Turkey's EU accession process on hold, citing a continued erosion of democratic standards and the politically motivated removal of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
The report, adopted on April 9 with 48 votes in favour, 3 against, and 23 abstentions, firmly states that Turkey's EU accession process cannot be restarted under the current political conditions.
The report criticized the Turkish government for failing to take meaningful steps to fix ongoing fundamental democratic issues. It highlighted a growing trend within the EU to consider "a different framework for the relationship," which could potentially sideline Turkey's EU accession process.
According to the report, EU membership depends on meeting the accession criteria, which are not open to strategic bargaining or transactional negotiations.
During the committee meeting, the European Parliament's rapporteur on Turkey, Nacho Sanchez Amor, criticized the Turkish government's recent actions. "The closer Turkey moves to authoritarianism with steps such as the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, the further it moves away from EU membership," he said.
Turkish Deputy FM: Israel Using Chaos to Justify Expansion in Syria
Speaking at the fourth Antalya Diplomacy Forum, Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Nuh Yilmaz accused Israel of pursuing an expansionist policy in Syria.
"Israel needs chaos on the ground to retrospectively legitimize its actions in Syria," Yilmaz said, pointing to the Daraa region as a key area of concern. He also warned that dormant terrorist cells, including DAESH elements, could be activated as part of this strategy.
Turkey and Israel Hold Talks in Azerbaijan on Syria Coordination
Turkish and Israeli delegations met in Azerbaijan on April 9 to discuss creating a "non-conflict" mechanism aimed at preventing unwanted incidents in Syria.
At a weekly press briefing on April 10, Defense Ministry Spokesperson Rear Admiral Zeki Akturk confirmed the meeting. "The first technical meeting was held in Azerbaijan on April 9 to establish a non-conflict mechanism to prevent undesirable incidents in Syria. Preparations will continue to establish this mechanism," he said.
Trump Offers to Mediate Between Israel and Turkey Over Syria
US President Donald Trump on April 7 positioned himself as a potential mediator between Israel and Turkey in their ongoing rivalry over influence in Syria.
Speaking at the White House alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump highlighted his strong relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, suggesting it could open the door for negotiations.
"I told the prime minister, I said, just Bibi, if you have a problem with Turkey, I think I'm going to be able to work it out," Trump said, using Netanyahu's nickname.
Trump also appeared to acknowledge Turkey's growing influence in Syria. He said he had told Erdogan, "Congratulations, you've done what nobody's been able to do in 2,000 years. You've taken over Syria." He noted that the takeover happened through surrogates but added, "With different names, but same thing."
Trump May Add Turkey to Upcoming Middle East Tour, CNN Reports
CNN's Arabic service reported on April 10 that US President Donald Trump is considering adding Turkey to his upcoming Middle East trip, which already includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The report cited anonymous sources who noted that a final decision has not yet been made and that trip details are still being finalized.
A senior White House official confirmed to CNN that Trump discussed the potential visit during a recent phone call with Turkish President Erdogan.
Erdogan Meets Syrian President al-Sharaa, Vows Support for Lifting Sanctions
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa on April 11 during the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, marking a significant step in Turkey-Syria relations.
According to a statement from the Presidency's Directorate of Communications, the two leaders discussed bilateral ties, regional and global developments.
Erdogan told al-Sharaa that Turkey would continue its diplomatic efforts to help lift international sanctions imposed on Syria. He also emphasized the need to boost trade and economic cooperation, pledging continued Turkish support for Syria's recovery.
U.S. and Russia Report Progress in Istanbul Talks on Diplomatic Missions
The United States and Russia announced progress on April 10 in efforts to normalize the functioning of their diplomatic missions following a new round of talks held in Istanbul. The meeting came after initial discussions in February.
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Russia and Central Europe Sonata Coulter led the U.S. delegation, while Russia was represented by its new ambassador to Washington, Alexander Darchiev. The U.S. delegation spent approximately six hours at the Russian consulate in central Istanbul.
The U.S. State Department described the meeting as a continuation of the "constructive approach" from the February 27 session. "The United States reiterated its concerns about the Russian Federation's policy prohibiting the employment of local staff," the statement noted.
Speaking to Russian state media TASS, Darchiev said the consultations took place in a positive atmosphere and helped move forward in resolving the issues outlined by both presidents.
Turkic States Signal Shift on Cyprus, Appoint Ambassadors
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan have each appointed ambassadors to the Republic of Cyprus, marking a notable shift in regional diplomacy that challenges Turkey's long-standing policy on Cyprus.
This diplomatic move follows a summit on April 4 in Samarkand, where the three countries—members of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS)—met with European Union leaders and pledged to support United Nations Security Council Resolutions 541 and 550. These resolutions condemn the 1983 declaration of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and oppose its recognition.
In their joint declaration, the Central Asian states emphasized their commitment to respecting sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the relevant UN resolutions.
Turkey, which has been advocating for a two-state solution on the island, has yet to issue an official response.
Indonesia Eyes Joint Development of Turkey's Kaan Fighter Jet and Submarines
Indonesia is seeking to collaborate on the development of Turkey's Kaan fighter jet and submarine projects, marking a strategic shift to expand its military modernization efforts beyond traditional defense partners, Bloomberg reported.
During his visit to Turkey on April 10, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced a joint venture between the two countries' leading defense contractors. In a joint statement with President Erdogan, Prabowo said the partnership could include joint submarine construction as part of broader defense cooperation.
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