ANALYSIS
Book: "The Silivri Post" by Mümtaz’er Türköne
An intellectual is always a rarity, even more so in Turkey’s nationalist movement. Türköne, a prolific academic, has become one of the leading nationalist intellectuals in Turkey. "The Silivri Post" provides offers valuable insights into Turkey’s recent political history.
Türköne was arrested in 2016, and was transferred to Silivri Prison on the outskirts of Istanbul. Silivri still holds the Guinness World Record as the world’s largest prison, housing 22,781 inmates. Like Sincan Prison in Ankara, which is only slightly smaller, thousands of Silivri’s inmates are political prisoners arrested after the 2016 coup attempt. These massive prison complexes function as modern-day gulags, where thousands of guards, police, gendarmerie, prison staff, and their families live and work.
Through Türköne’s eyes, we encounter journalists from opposing political backgrounds—Kemalists, leftists, Gulenists, etc.—all sharing the same fate. Türköne notes that around 150 journalists were imprisoned at that time. Eight years after the coup, at least 54 journalists still languish in Turkish prisons, according to the European Commission’s Turkey 2024 report.
What was the nature of the incidents on July 15? A genuine coup attempt or a false-flag operation? A junta within the military saw an opportunity and attempted to carry out a real coup. Nevertheless, None of them were Gulenists, except perhaps one or two who tried to endure prison through prayer. Of the 132 generals purged within days after the coup attempt, none were tried as members of the Gulen movement.
On the other hand, some police officers who protected President Erdogan that night—and even some officers later decorated by the government for suppressing the coup—were eventually found to be Gulenists. Reports from several Western intelligence services, including those in the US, Germany and the UK, suggest that Gulenists were not behind the coup attempt.
Politics is ultimately about power, and that Erdogan seized this opportunity to concentrate power by dismantling Turkey’s institutions. Turkish presidential system, which has weakened the separation of powers, is neither the local nor national model that officials claim it to be. The system is dysfunctional and cannot be restored without an independent judiciary.
Silivri became so notorious as a symbol of injustice that in 2022, the county of Silivri, where the prison is located, petitioned the Ministry of Justice to change its name, arguing it tarnished the county's reputation. The Ministry agreed, and it is now called Marmara Prison. The reputation of Silivri is finally “restored.”
"The new Trump age: A turn in US-Turkey relations?" by Dr Elif Selin Calik, Middle East Monitor
With Turkiye on a larger geopolitical footing, such as its entry into the BRICS alliance, Trump’s administration might find new diplomatic avenues. Trade tariffs, a reassessment of military positions in northern Syria, as well as continued debates about NATO and other alliances, make the new Trump age one of both promise and threat.
Yet, recent comments by the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, show that Ankara hopes the new US administration will ease economic tensions. To drop Turkish tariffs would be an early nudge toward Trump’s foreign policy and could revitalise a trade relationship worth close to $25 billion a year.
In 2019, Trump announced an interim troop withdrawal from the area, enabling Turkiye to set up a “safe zone” in northern Syria. And, now, with Trump back home, there will be another troop withdrawal in play, one that may serve Turkiye’s security interests and boost bilateral ties. With some 900 US troops in northern Syria, stability there and particularly against Daesh are critical to its future. Yet, a further withdrawal would reduce US influence and give Turkiye more control over the border.
In the face of geopolitical uncertainties, Turkiye finds itself torn between strengthening Western ties and moving towards a more multipolar foreign policy. For the United States, an economic and defence partnership with Turkiye could help maintain an alliance that is essential to stability in the Middle East, Europe and beyond.
"US vote unlikely to revitalise Turkey ties", AFP
"Today, it looks like both have decided to agree on some issues, disagree on others and look for areas of cooperation," Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told AFP. But many issues have soured ties.
In a Brookings commentary, Rich Outzen said US-Turkish ties had always had their difficulties but now there was a sense things were too complicated to resolve. "A view has gained currency in Washington centred on the premise that US-Turkish tensions may not be worth solving," he wrote.
"According to this view, Washington has little to gain from addressing Turkish concerns, Ankara can't or won't make transactions in good faith, or has adopted positions so irreconcilable with US and Western interests that there is no point in trying."
From a broader perspective, some believe it would be "more beneficial" for Turkey if the Democrats remained in power in the United States, said foreign policy analyst Serkan Demirtas.
Although "presidential chemistry" -- or the lack of it -- would likely impact future ties, it was unlikely to change the modalities of the relationship, Cagaptay said.
POLITICS
Turkey Removes Three Pro-Kurdish Mayors Over Terrorism Charges
On November 4, Turkey removed three pro-Kurdish mayors from their positions in southeastern cities, citing terrorism-related charges, including convictions on appeal, ongoing trials, and investigations.
The Interior Ministry announced that state officials were appointed to replace the mayors. The replacements took place in the cities of Mardin and Batman and in Halfeti, located in Sanliurfa province. All three mayors were members of the pro-Kurdish DEM Party. The Supreme Election Council had not contested their candidacies or prevented them from taking office after their elections.
The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) have decided to boycott parliamentary sessions for a week to protest the recent removal of their elected mayors.
DEM Party deputy group chairman Gulistan Kocyigit said her party would not attend parliamentary sessions this week. The CHP also announced that its lawmakers would join the boycott.
The Ministry of Interior announced the arrest of 33 people during protests against the appointment of trustees to three municipalities.
In its statement, the ministry revealed that 253 suspects were detained for participating in illegal demonstrations. Among them, 226 individuals were detained for terrorism-related offences, while 27 were detained for security crimes. 37 people were placed under judicial control, and three were given house arrest orders while the procedures for the remaining suspects are still ongoing, the ministry added.
Bahceli Calls for Constitutional Change to Allow Erdogan to Run in 2028
On November 5, Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), said a constitutional amendment should be considered to allow President Erdogan to run again in the 2028 elections.
Speaking to MHP lawmakers in Parliament, Bahceli stated, "If terrorism is eradicated, inflation is significantly reduced, and Turkey achieves political and economic stability, wouldn’t it be natural and right to elect our president once again?”
Bahceli also reiterated his call for outlawed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan to give a speech in Parliament to urge the laying down of arms. Bahçeli, who made this controversial suggestion earlier, emphasized that he stands by his word and remains firm in his offer.
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu Meets Political Leaders to Discuss Trustee Appointments
On November 5th, Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor and Union of Turkish Municipalities (TBB) President Ekrem Imamoglu visited Ankara for the TBB Extraordinary Council Meeting. During his visit, Imamoglu met with several political party leaders to discuss recent trustee appointments and propose solutions for municipalities.
He met with Republican People's Party (CHP) Chairman Ozgur Ozel, Democrat Party Chairman Gultekin Uysal, DEVA Party Chairman Ali Babacan, Future Party Chairman Ahmet Davutoglu, Good Party Chairman Musavat Dervisoglu, Felicity Party Chairman Temel Karamollaoglu, and Victory Party Chairman Umit Ozdag.
However, MHP leader Devlet Bahceli rejected Imamoglu's meeting request, stating, “I do not find it appropriate to meet with Imamoglu as we do not approve of his politics.” On November 6th, Imamoglu continued his meetings, visiting Welfare Party Chairman Fatih Erbakan.
Investigation Launched into DEM Party Leaders Over Protest Speeches
On November 7, Turkey’s Interior Ministry announced that it had launched an investigation into DEM Party co-chairperson and lawmaker Tuncer Bakirhan and Mardin provincial chairman Mehmet Mihdi Tunc over comments they made during speeches on November 4 regarding the recent removal of DEM Party mayors.
During a protest in Mardin, Bakirhan stated that Kurdish people would not stay silent in response to efforts to undermine their will. He referenced past Kurdish leaders, Seyid Riza and Sheikh Said, who were accused of revolting against the Turkish government in the early years of the Republic.
CHP Leader Urges Party to End Internal Conflicts
Opposition figures in the CHP have criticized the opportunities given to President Erdogan under the name of "normalization" following the local elections. As internal debates intensified, CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel addressed the issue in Izmir on November 9, urging party members to end the polemic.
Ozel stressed that CHP members should not be preoccupied with internal conflicts while Turkey faces critical issues, particularly poverty. He urged all members to shift their focus from party disputes to addressing national problems, especially financial hardship and poverty.
ECONOMY
Turkey’s Inflation Eases Slightly, Rate Cut Unlikely This Year
Turkey’s inflation rate eased slightly in October, though not as much as expected, likely ruling out a rate cut for the year. Official data shows inflation fell to 48.6% in October, down from 49.4% in September. Monthly price increases also saw a slight dip, with prices rising by 2.88% compared to September’s 2.97% increase. Economists remain cautious about an interest rate cut, given the slow progress in controlling rising prices.
Central Bank Raises Inflation Forecasts for 2024 and 2025
On November 8, Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan announced an increase in inflation forecasts during the Inflation Report presentation in Ankara. The end-2024 inflation forecast was raised from 38% to 44%, while the 2025 forecast increased from 14% to 21%. Additionally, the food inflation forecast for the end of 2024 was updated from 35.5% to 41.8%. Karahan noted that although the main inflation trend is declining, the pace of improvement in inflation expectations is not yet sufficient. He emphasized that the central bank will maintain its tight monetary policy stance to ensure continued disinflation.
Turkish Banks Seek Tax Relief in 2025 with Inflation-Adjusted Accounting
Turkish banks have requested a change that would reduce their tax burden in 2025 by applying inflation-adjusted accounting to their taxable profits; two banking sources told Reuters. The banks currently pay taxes on nominal profits, leading to higher tax bills despite lower, inflation-adjusted distributions.
Banks have requested the Turkish Treasury to amend the rules so that both distributed and taxable profits reflect inflation adjustments. They reportedly brought this issue to Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek last month.
One source noted that, without inflation accounting, bank shareholders are taxed on “artificial profits.” However, another source mentioned that the Treasury may find exempting banks from this tax challenging due to the current economic climate.
Acemoglu: "Turkish Economy Needs Independent Judiciary for Lasting Improvement"
Nobel laureate and MIT professor Daron Acemoglu, visiting Turkey to speak at Brand Week, emphasized that Turkey’s economic progress is impossible without an independent judiciary.
In an interview with Fatih Altayli, Acemoglu highlighted the key issue facing the Turkish economy when asked about its biggest challenge: the judiciary. "A trustworthy and respected judicial system is essential," he said.
He further stressed the need for reform in the education system, advocating for a system that encourages open thinking, innovation, and proper use of artificial intelligence. Acemoglu added that countries lacking healthy judicial and educational systems cannot achieve sustainable economic growth.
Responding to whether he could have won the Nobel if he had worked in Turkey, Acemoglu replied, “No, because Turkish universities lack freedom. A scientist cannot succeed if told what to research.”
Turkey Hopes for Tariff Relief on Steel and Textiles Under Trump Administration
Turkey’s Trade Minister expressed hope on November 7 that the incoming Trump administration would lower tariffs on Turkish steel and textile exports. Trump's election win led to a 0.4% rally in the Turkish lira, bringing it to its strongest level since mid-October at 34.2 against the dollar.
The minister also expected that the Trump administration, set to begin in January, would positively impact Turkey’s defense industry and ease pressure on banks affected by U.S. sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine conflict.
"Turkey Launching Ruble Swap to Ease Trade Squeezed by Sanctions" by Patrick Sykes, Bloomberg
A Turkish gas trader is starting a currency exchange business to ease unsanctioned trade between Russia and Turkey, showing firms are finding creative ways around payment issues while creating lucrative opportunities for middlemen.
Under the program, Bosphorus Gaz Corp AS, Turkey’s second-biggest private importer of Russian natural gas, will pay Turkish exporters euros for the equivalent amount in rubles owed to them by their Russian customers, The exchange is currently in a trial phase, he said.
The company can then use those rubles to help pay for gas it buys under a long-term contract with Russia’s state-run supplier, Gazprom PJSC.
Transactions in the new exchange program will be handled at Turkey’s Emlak Katilim Bankasi, a state-run Islamic bank, with Bosphorus Gaz charging a fee for facilitating the swap, Ustundag said. Trade involving sanctioned products won’t be eligible, he added. The new FX swap isn’t targeting particular sectors at this stage, and Ustundag expects small volumes to start.
HUMAN RIGHTS
UN Human Rights Committee Raises Concerns Over Turkey's Human Rights Situation
The United Nations Human Rights Committee shared its conclusions on November 7 regarding Turkey’s human rights situation, highlighting several areas of concern. The Committee emphasized declining freedoms and the rule of law, especially following the July 15 coup attempt. It raised alarms over the misuse of counterterrorism laws, which have been used against opposition politicians, journalists, activists, and human rights defenders.
The Committee also expressed strong concerns about the separation of powers and judicial independence in Turkey. It criticized the 2017 constitutional amendments, which it believed gave excessive power to the executive while weakening the Parliament and judiciary.
Violence against women, sexual violence, forced disappearances, and torture were also major issues highlighted in the report. The Committee is concerned about reports that over a hundred people suspected of links to the Gulen movement or critical of the government have been smuggled out of the country without any legal extradition process. The Committee also raised concerns about the alleged misuse of Interpol Red Notices.
The Committee stressed the need for a transparent judiciary and called for reforms to address these ongoing human rights issues, urging Turkey to review the state of emergency measures and take steps to improve the human rights situation.
HRW Harshly Criticizes Removal of DEM Party Mayors
Human Rights Watch (HRW) criticized the removal of mayors, noting that the recent dismissal of elected mayors and the dissolution of municipal councils undermine Turkey's democratic integrity and the rights of over half a million voters.
"Denying hundreds of thousands of voters their chosen representatives and replacing them with government appointees not only undermines democracy but also violates the right to free and fair elections," said Hugh Williamson, HRW's Europe and Central Asia director. HRW also urged Turkey to restore elected officials to office unless they are convicted by an independent court of an internationally recognized crime.
Turkey Ranks Third in Asylum Applications to Germany
In the first 10 months of this year, Turkey ranked third in asylum applications to Germany, following Syria and Afghanistan, according to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) on November 8. Out of a total of 217,780 asylum applications submitted during this period, 27,494 were from Turkey. Syria led with 68,842 applications, followed by Afghanistan with 32,062.
BAMF also reported that 253,970 asylum cases were processed in the same period, with a 45.7% acceptance rate.
Top Court Releases Data on Individual Applications
The Constitutional Court shared data on individual applications submitted from September 23, 2012, when the right to individual application began, up to September 30. During this period, 633,488 applications were made, with the Court resolving 527,803 of them—a response rate of 83.3%. Currently, 105,685 cases remain pending.
Of the resolved applications, the Court deemed 435,437 inadmissible, found that at least one right was violated in 75,089 cases, administratively rejected 13,712, categorized 2,140 as “other,” and ruled no rights were violated in 1,425 cases.
PACE Rapporteur Highlights Prison Violations in Turkey
Stefan Schennach, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) Turkey Rapporteur, visited prisons in Turkey from June 11-14. In his report, Schennach noted several violations occurring in the prisons, including the isolation of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan.
Schennach announced that he plans to revisit Turkish prisons in January to continue his work as rapporteur. He also said he would request a meeting with Ocalan from the Ministry of Justice.
FOREIGN POLICY
Erdogan Signals New Cross-Border Military Operation in Syria
On November 10, President Erdogan hinted at a new cross-border operation towards Syria.
Erdogan stated, “We will complete the missing links of the safe zone we have established along our borders in the upcoming period. In other words, we will completely cut off the communication between terrorist organizations and our country’s borders,” signaling a military operation toward Syria.
After the cabinet meeting, which took place at the Çankaya Presidential Palace for the first time in nine years, Erdogan also reaffirmed that Turkey would not back down in its fight against the PKK terrorist organization.
Kennedy Jr.: Trump Plans to Withdraw US Troops from Northern Syria
US President-elect Donald Trump plans to withdraw American troops from northern Syria to avoid getting caught up in the ongoing conflict between Turkish forces and Kurdish fighters. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. shared this news on November 6 during a live broadcast with commentator Tucker Carlson.
Kennedy, who endorsed Trump in August after suspending his independent presidential campaign, recalled a conversation with Trump about the safety of around 500 US troops stationed near the Syrian-Turkish border.
Kennedy, expected to play a significant role in the upcoming administration, said Trump expressed concern that these troops could become "cannon fodder" as tensions rise between Turkey and Kurdish groups in the region.
Activist Greta Thunberg Calls for Protests Outside Turkish Embassies Over Hypocrisy Accusations
Climate activist Greta Thunberg has called for protests outside Turkish embassies following accusations of hypocrisy against Turkish President Erdogan.
While President Erdogan has consistently spoken out in support of Palestinians, he faces criticism for maintaining trade relations and crude oil exports with Israel. Thunberg's call for action comes as tensions rise over the perceived contradiction between Erdoğan's vocal stance on Palestinian rights and his ongoing economic ties with Israel.
Israeli UN Ambassador Accuses Turkey of “Malice” Over Call to Halt Arms to Israel
On November 4, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, accused Turkey of acting with “malice” after Ankara submitted a letter, signed by 52 countries, urging a stop to arms deliveries to Israel amid the Gaza conflict.
Danon criticized Turkey’s actions, saying, “What else can be expected from a country driven by malice to create conflicts with support from the ‘Axis of Evil’ countries.” He added that the letter demonstrated that the UN is led by “sinister countries” rather than liberal nations upholding justice and morality.
Turkey Expands Military Influence Across Africa
A recent report from the French Defense Ministry highlights Turkey's expanding military presence in Africa, showing strategic influence in multiple African nations. The map in the report reveals that Turkey has stationed military attachés in 19 African countries and has exported drones to 15 African states, marking a significant boost in its defense ties with the continent.
The map illustrates Turkey's military cooperation agreements with numerous African nations, as indicated in green. These partnerships involve several Turkish military assets and personnel, including military bases, attachés, and drone sales. Countries like Somalia and Libya host Turkish military bases, reflecting Turkey's intent to strengthen security collaboration and bolster its strategic foothold in Africa.
U.S. Authorities Arrest Turkish Man for Allegedly Violating Sanctions Against Venezuela
U.S. authorities have arrested a Turkish man, Taskin Torlak, on charges of attempting to violate sanctions by illegally transporting oil from Venezuela. The Justice Department said Torlak, 37, conspired to sell Venezuelan oil while using deception to conceal its origin.
Torlak, along with others, are accused of renaming and reflagging oil tankers and disabling tracking devices to hide the vessels' locations. They reportedly received tens of millions of dollars from Venezuela's state-run oil company, PDVSA.
Torlak was arrested on November 2 in Miami as he attempted to leave for Turkey.
Erdogan Congratulates Trump, Invites to Turkey
Turkish President Erdogan spoke with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump by phone on November 6, focusing on enhancing cooperation between their countries during Trump’s upcoming term.
According to the Turkish presidency’s statement, Erdogan congratulated Trump on his election win.
On November 8, President Erdogan expressed hope that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump would urge Israel to end its military actions. Speaking to reporters after his visit to Budapest, Erdogan suggested that Trump could make a positive start by stopping U.S. arms support to Israel.
Erdogan said he invited Trump to visit Turkey, expressing hope that Trump would accept his invitation and help make Turkish-US cooperation stronger than it was during the current US administration.
Erdogan Urges EU Leaders to Revive Turkey's Accession Process
At the fifth European Political Community summit in Budapest, Turkish President Erdoğan called on European Union leaders to restart Turkey’s stalled EU membership process. He emphasized that there is no valid reason to block the accession of a country like Turkey, which has played a key role in the continent's security and prosperity for years.
Erdoğan also sought support for Turkey's EU bid during one-on-one meetings with EU leaders.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who met with Erdoğan in Budapest on November 7, shared on X that meeting with the Turkish president was a pleasure and expressed her hope to strengthen the EU-Turkey partnership.
Greece and Turkey Continue Talks on Maritime Boundaries Despite Ongoing Disagreements
Greek and Turkish foreign ministers met on November 8 to address the complex issue of maritime boundaries but acknowledged ongoing differences in their positions.
Greek Foreign Minister Gerapetritis described the issue as "tough and crucial," noting that while progress was made, more discussions are needed. Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan emphasized that the Aegean issues involve various interconnected matters that go beyond just maritime delimitation or exclusive economic zones.
The two countries will hold another round of talks in Athens on December 2-3, with a high-level cooperation council meeting planned in Turkey early next year.
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