ANALYSIS
"SDF-HTS standoff: Best and worst-case scenarios" by James Jeffrey, Al-Majalla
There are now three major paths forward for the SDF: continuation of its current independent status and partnership with the US; a major clash with Turkey with the US, to one or another degree, caught in the middle between two valued partners; or the integration of the SDF as a military force and a regional statelet into the new Damascus national state dominated by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
The second path forward for the SDF would be near collapse due to a Turkish assault deep into northeast Syria to significantly weaken SDF control over the civilian population, especially Arab communities. This would undercut the counter-insurgency effort against IS and force the United States to choose between two valuable partners.
This is, without doubt, the most negative course of action for all involved, but it could well be the most likely if the SDF, Ankara, Washington and Damascus do not act swiftly and wisely in the weeks ahead.
"Syria spillover for Iran moving towards the Caucasus" by Rovshan Mammadli, Amwaj.media
Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham’s (HTS) takeover in Syria has intensified concern that Turkey’s ambitions extend beyond Arab states, and particularly into the South Caucasus. From Iran's perspective, the primary concern centers on a potential surprise attack by Azerbaijan—backed by Turkey—on Armenia’s southern Syunik Province to establish the contentious Zangazur Corridor. Should the Zangazur Corridor come to fruition, Iran’s transit routes to Europe and Russia through the Caucasus would entirely be dependent on the goodwill of the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance.
Already facing an array of challenges in the South Caucasus, Iran’s position is further complicated by Russia’s overlapping interests with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Moscow views the Zangazur Corridor as a new transit route to Turkey and a potential opportunity to undermine western influence in the region. While Moscow, in the context of its Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty with Tehran, has scaled back its overt promotion of the corridor, it does not oppose efforts by the Ankara-Baku alliance to advance the project.
"Topple, tame, trade: How Turkey is rewriting Syria’s future" by Asli Aydintasbas, The European Council on Foreign Relations
Turkey’s leaders now seek to shape Syria’s future governance, not just in terms of stability but also in moulding a system that reflects its own political ethos. Turkish conservative elites would be comfortable with Syria emerging as an image of Turkey itself: conservative, competitive and centralised—even if it means a conservative Sunni majority dominates the political landscape.
Turkey’s leaders seem to believe Shaara is pragmatic enough to heed the demands of Damascene elites and Syrian minority communities, as well as regional powers, and not push ahead with a purist Salafist agenda. “He understands Idlib is Idlib and Damascus is Damascus,” a leading Syrian opposition figure with close ties to Ankara told me. Shaara’s ambition, he argued, is to effectively govern Syria and be elected as the president, not play a destabilising role or export Islamism.
"The End of the PKK?", by Halil Karaveli, Foreign Affairs
The political opening in Turkey raised hopes for a settlement with the PKK, but it is the recent fall of the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad that could truly presage the group’s end. With the collapse of the Assad regime comes an opportunity for Kurdish-majority regions in northern Syria and their militias to be integrated with the rest of the country. Losing this safe haven could be the last straw for an already weakened PKK.
If HTS and Turkey achieve their objectives, whether through negotiations or by force, the PKK will suffer a fatal blow. From Turkey’s perspective, the main threat is not a military one: the flat terrain along the Syrian-Turkish border is easy to monitor, and unlike the mountainous topography in northern Iraq, it is not suitable for guerrilla warfare. But Ankara does fear that an autonomous, armed, Kurdish-led political entity in Syria could become—if it isn’t already—the focus of Kurdish separatist aspirations in Turkey.
"Turkey is building a spaceport in Somalia", The Economist
In December the government began work on a spaceport in Somalia, a project that has been projected to cost $350m. Space is a matter of national prestige for Mr Erdogan, but it is also an important auxiliary to the booming Turkish defence industry. The government has confirmed that it also wants to use its spaceport as a place to test missiles; from Somalia they can safely be fired east.
Mr. Erdogan has poured cash into the defence industry, even considering a tax on credit cards and car and property sales to support the sector. But his budget deficit may put a dampener on his plans; and the defence sector is not immune to the country’s brain drain, with many engineers leaving to work abroad for much better pay. Mr. Erdogan may be looking to the stars, but Turkey’s talented youth are more likely to be looking at their pay cheques.
POLITICS
Ocalan to Make Historic Call for Permanent Kurdish Solution, Says Pro-Kurdish Party
Turkey's pro-Kurdish party announced on February 4 that Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the PKK, will soon make a "historic call" for a permanent solution to the Kurdish issue.
DEM Party co-chairman Tuncer Bakirhan told his party in parliament that Ocalan's message would come in the coming days as part of efforts to end the long-standing conflict with the Turkish state.
Prosecutors File Third Case Against Istanbul Mayor
Turkish prosecutors have filed a third indictment against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu over his remarks criticizing the city's prosecutor.
The indictment seeks a prison sentence of seven years and four months and a political ban for Imamoglu. Prosecutors accuse him of threatening and insulting a public official and targeting individuals involved in counterterrorism efforts.
In response, Imamoglu said the latest charges prove Erdogan lacks the courage to face voters in elections and instead relies on "desk-bound games" to maintain power.
Imamoglu’s Lawyers File Criminal Complaint Against Expert Witness
The lawyers of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu have filed a criminal complaint against S.B., an expert witness in a case seeking a political ban and prison sentence for Imamoglu over an alleged rigged tender during his time as Beylikduzu Mayor.
The complaint, submitted to the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office, accuses S.B. of "abuse of office," "false statements," and "attempting to influence a fair trial."
In their complaint, Imamoglu’s lawyers argued that S.B. lacks the necessary qualifications as an auditor and is not registered with any professional chamber or the Ministry of Justice’s Independent Auditor Official Registry.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office had previously launched an investigation into Imamoglu, accusing him of targeting an expert witness in public cases during a press conference.
Turkish Authorities Block CHP’s Pro-Palestinian Rally in Istanbul
Turkish authorities refused to allow the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) to hold a pro-Palestinian march and rally at Istanbul’s Galata Bridge on February 7.
The Istanbul Governor’s Office did not give a clear reason for the ban but cited restrictions on protests in non-designated areas.
CHP officials accused the government of double standards, pointing out that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its allies recently held a large pro-Palestinian rally at the same location.
Two Independent MPs Join CHP
Independent MPs Cemal Enginyurt and Salih Uzun, who resigned from the Democrat Party, joined the CHP on February 4.
CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel welcomed them by pinning their party badges during party's group meeting. CHP's seats in Parliament increased to 133.
CHP Rejects Homeland Party’s Debt in Merger Talks
Homeland Party executives announced that they had unanimously decided to give full authority for merging with CHP, including transferring the party’s debts and receivables.
However, reports revealed that the Homeland Party had 30 million liras in debt. Learning of this, the CHP leadership stated that while Homeland Party members could join CHP, they would not accept responsibility for the party’s debts and receivables.
MHP Leader Bahceli Undergoes Heart Surgery
The MHP announced that party chairman Devlet Bahceli underwent heart surgery on February 6.
According to the statement, Bahceli was admitted to Anadolu Health Center on February 4 for planned examinations. Doctors found degeneration in his heart valve, which had been replaced 10 years ago, and performed a successful valve replacement. Bahceli's condition is stable, and he is resting, the statement added.
Gultekin Uysal Announces Presidential Candidacy
Democrat Party Chairman Gultekin Uysal announced on a TV program that he will run in the presidential election.
While declaring his candidacy, Uysal emphasized the need for democracy, the rule of law, and fair governance while highlighting Turkey’s political, economic, and social challenges.
ECONOMY
Turkey’s Inflation Rises by 5.03% in January
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) reported that inflation rose by 5.03% in January, bringing the annual rate to 42.12%.
The Inflation Research Group (ENAG), an independent team of academics and economists, calculated inflation at 8.22% for the month and 81.01% annually.
Turkey’s Central Bank Raises 2025 Inflation Forecast
Turkey's central bank has revised its year-end inflation forecast for 2025. During a quarterly inflation presentation in Istanbul on February 7, Governor Fatih Karahan announced that the annual inflation is now expected to reach 24%, up from the previous forecast of 21%. He also maintained the projection for end-2026 at 12%.
Turkey’s Exports Rise by 5.8% in January, Trade Deficit Up 24.2%
The Trade Ministry announced that exports increased by 5.8% in January compared to the same month last year, reaching $21.16 billion. Imports rose by 10.2% to $28.85 billion, pushing the trade deficit up by 24.2% to $7.68 billion.
In the February 2024-January 2025 period, exports rose by 2.6% to $263.02 billion, while imports fell by 2.2% to $346.68 billion. The foreign trade deficit in this period dropped by 14.8% to $83.66 billion, with an export-import coverage ratio of 75.9%.
Turkey's Exports to Israel Drop by 56% in 2024, Israeli Data Shows
The Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics released Israel's trade data for December and the entire year of 2024.
In December 2024, Turkey exported $57.1 million worth of goods to Israel, up from $47.5 million in November. However, for the whole year, Turkey’s exports to Israel totaled $2.019 billion, a sharp drop from $4.607 billion in 2023—a 56.18% decline.
Israel’s exports to Turkey also fell significantly. In December 2024, Israel exported only $1 million to Turkey. Over the year, total exports reached $598.6 million, down from $1.554 billion in 2023.
Turkey's Population Reaches 85.66 Million in 2024
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) announced the 2024 population data on February 6. Turkey’s population grew by 292,567 people last year, reaching 85,664,944. The annual growth rate rose from 1.1 per thousand in 2023 to 3.4 per thousand in 2024.
The male population stood at 42,853,110, while the female population was 42,811,834, making up 50.02% and 49.98% of the total, respectively.
However, the data does not include foreigners with short-term visas or residence permits under 90 days, nor Syrians under temporary protection.
HUMAN RIGHTS
23 Governments Including Turkey Target Exiled Dissidents in 2024
According to Freedom House data released on February 6, 23 governments targeted exiled political activists, journalists, former officials, and minority groups in 2024.
Since 2014, China, Turkey, and Tajikistan have been the biggest offenders of transnational repression. The report also highlighted that Turkish and Russian authorities carried out renditions and attempted unlawful deportations.
X Blocks Accounts of Turkish Journalists and Media Platforms
Social media platform X has blocked access to at least 42 accounts belonging to Turkish journalists, activists, and media organizations run by exiled journalists. The decision follows a ruling from an Ankara court, which cited "national security and public order" as reasons for the ban.
Other journalists and media platforms have also been affected, though they were not included in the 42 accounts listed by the government. For example; the X account of the news website Artı Gercek has also been blocked in Turkey. The platform announced that it is taking legal action against the court's decision.
Turkey Blocks Journalist Metin Cihan’s X Account
Turkey has blocked journalist Metin Cihan’s X account. Authorities cited "protecting national security and public order" as the reason for the ban.
Cihan is known for his recent posts exposing ongoing trade with Israel, despite Turkey’s official statements suggesting otherwise.
Turkey Detains 93 in Operations Against Gulen Movement
Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on February 4 on his X account that authorities have detained 93 people in operations targeting the Gulen movement across 29 provinces over the past week.
Journalist Oznur Deger Arrested After House Raid in Mardin
JINNEWS reporter Oznur Deger was detained during a house raid in Mardin on February 7. Authorities questioned her about social media posts related to journalists Cihan Bilgin and Nazim Dasdan, who died in Syria. The court ordered her arrest.
Deger reportedly said she was tortured during interrogation and requested a report, but officials denied her request.
Three Birgun Journalists Detained, Later Released
Police detained Birgun Newspaper’s Publishing Coordinators Ugur Koc and Berkant Gultekin, along with Managing Editor Yasar Gokdemir, on February 8 for reporting on Sabah Newspaper’s visit to Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor Akin Gurlek.
After giving their statements at the police station, they were taken to the prosecutor’s office following health checks. Berkant Gultekin was released after his statement, while Ugur Koc and Yasar Gokdemir were released on probation.
FOREIGN POLICY
Erdogan Praises Syria's New Leader for Fighting Terrorism
On February 4, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan praised Syria’s new interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, for his strong commitment to fighting terrorism. Sharaa arrived in Ankara from Saudi Arabia for his first visit to Turkey.
At a joint press conference, Erdogan said Turkey was ready to support Syria’s new leadership in combating both ISIS and Kurdish militants. He also repeated Turkey’s offer to help manage prisons in northeastern Syria that currently hold ISIS fighters under SDF control.
Sharaa stated that Turkey and Syria were working together on a strategy to address security threats in the region. He also mentioned that they discussed threats to Syria’s territorial unity, referring to the SDF.
German President Steinmeier Visits Turkey, Discusses Syria and Gaza
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier visited Turkey on February 5 and met with President Erdogan. The visit was the final stop of his three-day tour in the Middle East, which included stops in Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
During a joint news conference with President Erdogan, Steinmeier shared that they discussed the situation in Syria in detail. He emphasized that for Syria to achieve stability, all ethnic groups must be involved in the country's governance.
Erdogan highlighted the importance of maintaining the ceasefire in Gaza, saying that the international community must continue efforts for a two-state solution.
Steinmeier also criticized US President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the United States take control of the war-torn Gaza Strip, calling it "unacceptable." He reiterated that both Germany and Turkey support a two-state solution to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Turkey Considers Building Military Bases in Syria
Turkey is exploring the possibility of establishing military bases in Syria and providing training for the new government, Bloomberg reported.
Turkish officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed that the country is evaluating locations for military bases in Syria. The plan also includes supplying arms and military training to the Syrian army.
Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Jordan to Cooperate Against ISIS
Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Jordan have agreed to work together to combat ISIS, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced on February 5. Their first meeting on the issue will take place in Jordan.
Fidan said the four countries reached a preliminary deal to strengthen cooperation between their foreign and defense ministries and intelligence agencies. He also noted that they plan to implement new border security measures.
Turkey and Egypt Oppose Palestinian Displacement
On February 4, Turkey and Egypt rejected any attempts to expel Palestinians from their homeland and called on Israel to allow the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) to continue its humanitarian work.
In a joint statement after their meeting in Ankara, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty stressed the importance of UNRWA’s role and urged Israel to reverse decisions that undermine the agency.
Both countries also condemned any efforts to relocate Palestinians and reaffirmed their commitment to a just and lasting peace based on international law, UN resolutions, and a two-state solution.
Before departing from Ataturk Airport for official meetings in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Pakistan, President Erdogan criticized Trump's Gaza plan, calling it not worth discussing.
"We see that the Israeli administration has more insidious and inhumane plans. The US proposals on Gaza, influenced by the Zionist lobby, are not worth considering or discussing from our perspective," Erdogan said.
Freed Palestinian Prisoners Arrive in Turkey After Deportation
Fifteen Palestinian prisoners released by Israel under the January 19 ceasefire agreement with Hamas arrived in Turkey on February 4. They were first deported to Egypt before traveling to Turkey.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed their arrival, stating that Ankara responded positively to the request made under the ceasefire deal.
Slovakia Starts Receiving Russian Gas Through Turkey
Slovakia's natural gas transit company SPP announced on February 6 that it has started receiving Russian gas through Turkey after Ukraine halted the flow via its territory.
SPP spokesman Ondrej Sebesta said the gas is now supplied through the southern route via TurkStream and reaches Slovakia through Hungary.
Afghanistan’s Turkish Embassy Closes in Ankara
Afghanistan’s embassy in Turkey announced on February 6 that it has officially closed its doors in Ankara following a decision by Turkish authorities.
In a message posted on X, the embassy explained that since the Taliban took power on August 15, 2021, they had repeatedly tried to take control of the embassy. The Taliban also pressured diplomats, embassy employees, and the Turkish government. Due to this, Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs decided to end the mission of Afghanistan’s ambassador and embassy staff, it said. The embassy thanked Turkey for its support over the years.
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