ANALYSIS
"Why does the US suddenly want to sell F-35s to Turkey?" by Ragip Soylu, Middle East Eye
Several people familiar with the matter said that earlier this year, American officials changed their tune on the sale of F-35s after Ankara ratified Sweden’s Nato membership in return for a major F-16 purchase deal.
The Americans, as they did with the F-16 proposal in 2022, approached the Turks and offered to study ways to sell it the fifth-generation aircraft.
People familiar with the issue believe Washington is concerned by Ankara’s air defence capacity for the medium-term future as the war between Russia and Ukraine still risks spilling over in the region, and whilst the US is preparing itself for a long term rivalry and even confrontation against China.
“Turkey is Nato’s southern flank and it has an aging F-16 fleet which isn't a match to fifth generation platforms,” a source told Middle East Eye.
Many Ankara insiders have said that even though there is opposition amongst some defence industry officials over the purchase of the F-35s, arguing that Ankara has its own fifth generation fighter jet Kaan project and unmanned stealth fighter plans, the defence ministry and the air force are still interested in the system.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also didn’t reject the fact that both sides work on “modalities of solution” to end the S-400 crisis but declined to reveal the options.
"The US-Turkiye S-400 and F-35 standoff: Future paths and implications" by Dr Elif Selin Calik, Middle East Monitor
The future of the US-Turkiye dispute over the S-400 and F-35 will depend on the ability of both nations to reconcile their security interests and find common ground. There are several potential scenarios that could shape the resolution of this conflict:
1. Partial compromise and integration in NATO systems: Turkiye could be persuaded to either limit the operational use of the S-400 system or to store it without integrating it into active defence operations. The US could then offer a pathway for Turkiye to regain its role in the F-35 program or find alternative defence arrangements, such as offering Patriot missiles under more favourable terms. This would require a high level of diplomatic compromise and trust-building between the two nations, considering Turkiye has so far rejected conditions to “mothball” the S-400.
2. Development of Turkiye’s domestic defence capabilities: Turkiye has expressed growing interest in self-reliance within its defence sector, emphasizing the development of indigenous military technologies. The country has been working on the TF-X National Combat Aircraft, which it hopes will serve as a fifth-generation fighter jet to potentially replace the F-35. However, developing a fully capable domestic alternative is a long-term project that requires significant investment, expertise and time.
3. Closer ties with Russia and non-NATO defence partners: Should diplomatic negotiations fail, Turkiye may deepen its defence cooperation with Russia, including the potential purchase of additional S-400 batteries. Such a move would signify a considerable shift away from NATO and a tilt toward a more Russia-oriented defence policy. This would likely increase geopolitical tensions within the alliance and further isolate Turkiye from NATO defence arrangements.
4. US Flexibility and Regional Security Concerns: Given the strategic importance of Turkiye within NATO, the US may reconsider its stance in favour of broader regional security concerns. Turkiye’s geographical position, spanning Europe and Asia, makes it crucial for addressing issues like migration, Middle Eastern conflicts and Black Sea security. A potential compromise could involve the US and NATO finding ways to include Turkiye in defence arrangements without directly linking it to the S-400 standoff.
POLITICS
Immunity Files of Seven MPs Submitted to Parliament
The immunity files of seven Parliament members were submitted to the Parliament on October 4. Six of these files concern MPs from CHP, DEM Party, Democrat Party, and Good Party, while one file involves an MHP MP.
The lawmakers whose immunity files were submitted are:
- CHP Izmir MPs Ahmet Tuncay Ozkan and Mahir Polat
- DEM Party Erzurum MP Meral Danis Bestas, DEM Party Istanbul MP Cengiz Cicek
- Democrat Party Istanbul MP Cemal Enginyurt
- MHP Kayseri MP Mustafa Baki Ersoy
- Good Party Deputy Group Chair and Balikesir MP Turhan Comez
Kilicdaroglu Warns Ozgur Ozel on Bribery Allegations Related to Turkevi
Former CHP Chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu cautioned his successor, Ozgur Ozel, who stated, "Turkey is not a country that would need to pay bribes while such a building is being built here; it is not in such a position of helplessness" regarding the Turkevi in New York, which is facing corruption and bribery allegations.
In a social media post, Kilicdaroglu said, "The Republican People's Party will never whitewash bribes, nor will it name those who give bribes as the state and support this corrupt system."
He added, "The CHP has a responsibility to the people who have great hopes. We must not turn a blind eye to mistakes made in the name of normalization with the government or become complicit in the crimes it commits!"
Ex-opposition Leader Criticizes Erdogan's Welcoming at Parliament Opening
Former CHP Chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu voiced his disapproval of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan being welcomed standing at the Parliament's opening session on October 1. Kilicdaroglu criticized the president for not acting impartially, stating, "CHP will not and cannot be the notary of the lawlessness he has committed!" He also praised CHP MPs for their patriotic stance and urged citizens to resist legitimizing Erdogan's regime.
CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel, in response to questions from journalist Ismail Saymaz, acknowledged the issue of presidential legitimacy, saying, "The President may have a legitimacy issue, but if voters don’t see it that way, it doesn’t matter what you think."
When asked if Kilicdaroglu was acting as the party's opposition leader, Ozel said, "It’s up to the party chairman to make his own decisions. My duty is to show respect, as I have done with all previous leaders."
On October 4, CHP leader Ozel again responded to criticisms about his decision to stand while greeting President Erdogan, stating, "There is no way voters will be upset with me for standing up to greet Erdogan and refuse to vote for me. But voters who previously supported the AK Party are at least listening to what we are telling."
When asked about the possibility of running for president in the next election, Ozel said, "I will not take any action that could lead to a loss in an election we have a chance of winning. I will not push for my candidacy if it risks preventing the right candidate from being elected."
MHP Leader Bahceli Shakes Hands with DEM Party Deputies
Following the opening session of the Parliament, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Chairman Devlet Bahceli shook hands with People's Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) Co-Chairman Tuncer Bakırhan and other DEM Party deputies while leaving the hall.
When asked by the press about his handshake with DEM Party deputies, Bahceli stated, "We are entering a new era; while we seek peace in the world, we must ensure peace in our own country."
Tuncer Bakirhan remarked on Bahceli's handshake, saying, "It was a moment that should have happened. We support every step that promotes social peace."
DEM Party Group Deputy Chairman Gulistan Kilic Kocyigit stated that Bahçeli's words about peace are "important and meaningful, but its continuation and implementation are just as crucial as the words themselves."
Turkish MP Resigns from AK Party Following Son's Arrest for Drug Trafficking
Ahmet Zenbilci, a member of the Turkish Parliament from Adana province, resigned from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) after his son, Tayyip Zenbilci, was arrested on drug trafficking charges.
Law enforcement officials found 20 kilograms of skunk, a potent form of cannabis, in a vehicle registered in Ahmet Zenbilci’s name during a drug trafficking investigation.
Following the arrest, Ahmet Zenbilci announced his resignation on September 30. In a written statement, he said he wanted to ensure the investigation could proceed without political interference or damage to his party's image.
Good Party Sues to Annul Citizenship Granted to Foreigners
Turkey’s nationalist opposition Good Party has filed a lawsuit with the Council of State, the country's highest administrative court, to annul citizenship granted to foreigners in exchange for investments in real estate and foreign currency deposits.
Party leader Musavat Dervisoglu announced the legal challenge on October 1 outside the court in Ankara. He claimed that Turkish citizenship has been granted to at least 500,000 people in the past seven years through a process he calls “unconstitutional,” which undermines the nation's integrity.
“With this legal action by the Good Party, the hundreds of thousands of citizenships granted to refugees and foreigners will be revoked. From now on, Turkish citizenship, earned through the hard-fought struggles of our ancestors, will no longer be sold for foreign currency,” Dervisoglu said.
HUDA-PAR Criticizes Government Over Trade with Israel
Halef Yilmaz, Deputy Chairman of HUDA-PAR, an ally of the ruling AK Party, criticized the Turkish government, questioning how they can claim to oppose Israel while allowing fuel for Israel’s warplanes to be sent through Turkey.
Yilmaz pointed out that fuel is being sent from Azerbaijan to Israel via Turkey through the SOCAR company. He stated, “We condemn Israel’s actions, yet continue to supply them with fuel. Continuing trade with Israel is a betrayal of the Palestinian people.”
Yilmaz also called for the closure of the Kürecik and Incirlik military bases.
ECONOMY
Turkey's Annual Inflation Slows to 49.38% in September
Turkey's annual inflation slowed to 49.38% in September, slightly higher than the 48.1% forecast by local economists, according to official data released on October 3.
The Inflation Research Group (ENAG), an independent body of academics and economists, also announced their inflation data for September. According to ENAG, inflation rose by 5.34 percent on a monthly basis in September, while annual inflation reached 88.63 percent.
The central bank expects inflation to ease to 38% by the end of this year, 14% next year, and 9% by 2026.
Deutsche Bank Predicts Economic Slowdown and Declining Inflation in Turkey
In its latest analysis on Turkey, Deutsche Bank predicted a slowdown in economic activity and a continued drop in inflation. The report forecasts that Turkey’s economy will cool in 2024, with a growth rate of 3 percent due to decreased domestic demand.
It also expects inflation to continue its downward trend for the rest of the year. The bank’s year-end inflation forecast for 2024 is 42 percent, with a further drop to 23 percent in 2025.
The Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates by 250 basis points in November, ending the year with a 45 percent interest rate.
The report also predicts that the dollar-to-lira exchange rate will hit 36 by the end of 2024 and 44 in 2025.
Central Bank Governor Reaffirms Tight Monetary Policy Stance
Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan made a presentation to the Parliament's Planning and Budget Committee on October 3, outlining the bank's policies and the latest developments in Turkey's economy.
Karahan emphasized that the central bank will maintain its tight monetary policy and reach its inflation targets, even if it takes a few extra months. Karahan also predicted a slowdown in rental price increases in the coming months.
HUMAN RIGHTS
67-Year-Old Man Arrested Despite Severe Health Issues
Abdurrahman Gemicioglu, 67, was arrested in Yuksekova, Hakkari, on October 3 after the Court of Cassation upheld his 8-year, 9-month prison sentence. Suffering from multiple illnesses, including colon cancer, prostate issues, heart failure, diabetes, high blood pressure, and anxiety, Gemicioglu was taken to the hospital after being admitted to Van High-Security Prison due to his worsening health condition.
Despite his serious condition, Gemicioglu was returned to prison before his treatment was completed. His daughter, Elif Gemicioglu, expressed concern about her father's interrupted treatment, stating, "He is being kept under surveillance in the prison infirmary due to the risk of death." She called on authorities to immediately release her father.
Turkish Police Detain 13 Students Linked to Gulen Movement
Turkish police detained 13 students on October 3 during an operation in the southern province of Mersin for their alleged connections to the Gulen movement. The detentions occurred during simultaneous raids in Mersin, Adana, and Elazig.
Seven DEM Party Members Detained in Aydin as Part of Investigation
As part of an investigation led by the Aydin Public Prosecutor's Office, seven individuals, including district executives of the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), were detained on October 4 during house raids in the city.
Detention warrants were issued for a total of 10 people. However, arrest warrants were issued for three people who were not found at their registered addresses. Due to a confidentiality order on the case, the reasons for the detentions remain undisclosed.
Turkish Expatriates and Activists Demand Justice in Strasbourg for Human Rights Violations
Over 3,000 Turkish expatriates and human rights activists gathered outside the Council of Europe headquarters in Strasbourg on October 2, calling for justice for victims of human rights violations in Turkey.
The protesters criticized the Council of Europe for not putting enough pressure on Ankara to comply with rulings from the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) that favour the victims.
The protesters also delivered letters to top officials, including Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights Michael O'Flaherty and ECtHR President Marko Bosnjak.
FOREIGN POLICY
Erdogan Calls for U.N. Action if Security Council Fails to Stop Israel's Attacks
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan urged the U.N. General Assembly to recommend the use of force, citing a 1950 resolution, if the U.N. Security Council fails to stop Israel’s attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.
"The U.N. General Assembly should swiftly implement its authority to recommend the use of force, as it did with 1950 Uniting for Peace resolution, if the Security Council lacks the necessary will," Erdogan said following a cabinet meeting in Ankara.
He expressed disappointment in Muslim countries for not taking a stronger stance against Israel, urging them to adopt economic, diplomatic, and political measures to pressure Israel into accepting a ceasefire.
Speaking on October 1 at the start of the Turkish Parliament’s new legislative year, Erdogan devoted much of his speech to condemning Israel’s actions in Palestine and Lebanon. He thanked the Parliament and political parties for their united support of the Palestinian cause.
Erdogan compared Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to Hitler, accusing Israel of committing genocide. He again criticized Islamic countries for remaining silent and warned that Israel’s next target could be Turkey.
"Despite this disgraceful situation, some countries continue to support Israel, while others remain silent, becoming complicit in the brutality. No matter what Israel does, it will be stopped sooner or later," Erdogan said.
Turkish Parliament to Convene to Discuss Israel-Lebanon tensions
TBMM Speaker Numan Kurtulmus announced in a television interview that the Turkish Parliament will convene on October 8 to discuss Israel's invasion of Lebanon and other regional developments.
"They are trying to put pressure on Turkey through terrorist organizations. We know very well who is behind these actions and their motives," Kurtulmus stated, saying that the government will brief MPs on Israel's threat.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and National Defense Minister Yasar Guler will brief the MPs during the session.
Spanish Authorities Seize Four Tons of Cocaine from Ship with Mostly Turkish Crew
Spanish authorities seized four tons of cocaine from a Tanzanian-flagged cargo ship near the Canary Islands and arrested its crew members, mostly Turkish, on October 4.
The crew, including five Turks, two Azerbaijanis, and a Dutchman, were all detained, with the Turkish captain among those arrested. Officials noted that the ship raised suspicion after an unusual journey from Turkey to West Africa without loading or unloading goods, followed by erratic movements towards the Iberian Peninsula.
Imdat Oner, a Policy Analyst at the InstituDE, indicated that the cocaine shipment was likely organized by Turkish gangs.
Germany Approves Large-Scale Arms Exports to Turkey After Years
Germany-based news portal Spiegel reported on October 6 that the German government has approved large-scale arms exports to Turkey for the first time in years.
According to Spiegel, in a closed-door meeting, the Federal Security Council gave the green light for arms exports to NATO ally Turkey, totalling 336 million euros.
The exports reportedly include 100 air defense missiles, torpedoes for the Turkish Navy, and large packages of materials for the modernization of Turkish submarines and frigates.
Tensions Rise Between Turkey and Kyrgyzstan Over University Rector Dispute
The replacement of the rector at Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University (KTMU) in Bishkek has caused tension between Turkey and Kyrgyzstan, as Turkey insists on keeping the current rector, reportedly close to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s son, Bilal Erdogan, in office, the Serbestiyet news website reported.
Ceylan’s ties to Bilal Erdogan are seen as the main reason for Turkey’s push to retain him as rector. Although a new rector was supposed to be appointed on August 13, the decision has been delayed for over a month.
Turkey’s Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan, Ahmet Sadik Dogan, reportedly met with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov to advocate for Ceylan’s reappointment, but Japarov allegedly rejected the proposal, saying the matter was closed on their end. Despite the ongoing disagreement, Ceylan is still listed as the rector on the university’s website.
Turkey and Iraq Sign Agreement on Voluntary Return of Iraqi Citizens
Turkish Interior Minister announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Iraq to facilitate the "voluntary return" of Iraqi citizens living in Turkey.
The agreement was signed on October 2 by Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya and Iraqi Minister of Migration and Displacement Evan Faiq Jabro.
Yerlikaya shared on X that the memorandum of understanding would involve cooperation in combating irregular migration.
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